Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[guypjfreak]

15 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

We're fucked!!!

 

No really, I think we are!

But stu old son if you read this through kaleidoscope glasses then this means lock down now and we have a chance................... 

There is limited data indicating that mass gatherings are associated with influenza 
transmission. Some evidence suggests that restricting mass gatherings together with other
behavioural interventions may help to reduce transmission, but this would be insufficient to 
consider restrictions by default in a pandemic (Department of Health 2011 I). 
2.24 Most studies of mass gatherings have been limited at a large number of US cities during 
the 1918 pandemic and have highlighted the difficulty of interpreting what was meant by a “mass 
gathering” and, for example, whether to include schools, cinemas, theatres and other public places
in the term. In general, evidence suggests that these measures had a beneficial effect, especially 
where implemented early in the course of the outbreak (Department of Health 2011 I). However, 
these benefits were not universal across all cities. In addition, it was not possible to distinguish the 
specific effects of mass gatherings restrictions from amongst the broad range of other public health

[Avalon_Fields]

1 minute ago, Breeze said:

Maybe Glasto can postpone rather than cancel though?

 

It’s sometimes cling to but I really doubt that would happen, certainly it would be a festival on a much reduced level. Most major acts can’t alter their schedules so the festival would be starting from the beginning regarding booking bands, there would not be enough time to bring it all together,  it’s either June or June 2021. 

[Avalon_Fields]

What’s the odds now? 50/50 at best? 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Benja100 said:

My mum said corona virus loves cold weather, is that not evidence?

There is maybe a slight indication more northerly counties have it worse, but hot countries have it as well though. We can only hope warner weather does have some sort of impact and coupled with the delay tactics it helps to bring it under control. Whatever happens case numbers will continue to ramp up for while longer regardless.

[Matt42]

Standing in a sunny field with a cold cider feels a million years away.

[Friendly Banter]

Posted in the other thread, but I work for the NBA. Got some news today that all non-game events are to be canceled through the end of the season.    The league is still determining on whether to proceed without fans for the remainder of the regular season or to suspend all play indefinitely.  The call was pretty doom and gloom. Our government contact said that there will be a nationwide ban of large scale events soon. They have a model that shows upwards of 100 million Americans to contract the virus. Conservatively, 50 milllion is expected, with 100,000 dead. 
edit: apologies for grammar I am on mobile. 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Friendly Banter

[Mouseboy11]

I can never get tweets to embed on here, Collymore suggesting Premier League could go behind closed doors.


https://twitter.com/StanCollymore/status/1237878552646660097?s=20

Edited March 11, 2020 by Mouseboy11

[NerdsNatterings]

1 minute ago, Mouseboy11 said:

I can never get tweets to embed on here, Collymore suggesting Premier League could go behind closed doors.


https://twitter.com/StanCollymore/status/1237878552646660097?s=20

I'll be honest, there aren't many people whose opinions I trust or care about less than Collymore's

[Mouseboy11]

4 minutes ago, NerdsNatterings said:

I'll be honest, there aren't many people whose opinions I trust or care about less than Collymore's

He's a berk, but he's also a journaliste so is probably well sourced.

[kingbadger]

I'm actually feeling slightly positive in terms of the festival going ahead. Looking at the stats we are managing ok thus far without any severe restrictions. Theres going to be a big spike at some point, but I actually give credit to the government for not pulling the trigger too early on putting us into lockdown etc. We can only do it once without completely fucking the economy, and people are only ever likely to comply with a total shutdown once, so why do it now when we're not in a complete mess? I know it can be preventative, but everyone is saying we're gonna get a massive jump at some point, so seems the best time to pull the trigger is when that trend appears to help steady the flow of cases.

Can see half measures until we see a sharp rise, then a full scale lockdown to limit the damage/spread to a relatively manageable level. The global economy simply can't stand a total shutdown of large events etc over more than a 4 week period I'd have thought. Like others have said, how many businesses are there whose finances are based on a rolling basis, i.e monies paid up front for things knowing their revenue will be up massively during the summer to compensate. The economy is teetering on the brink as it is, especially with Brexit ahead.

It's an awful thought but there is going to have to be some balancing of the spread of the virus v the damage of the economy. Obviously there is no way of knowing the potential figures but for instance you could save say an extra 10,000 people by completely shutting the country down, but that would almost guarantee recession which could equally end up costing far more lives in the wrong run. I imagine this is why the 'take it on the chin' and 'no need to cancel mass gatherings' message has been put out there for a while. The government knows full well they can't shut the country down for an extensive period of time so it's a case of damage limitation both in terms of the spread and the economy.

We all have loved ones at serious risk, but I can see why there needs to be a balance. I envisage there being advice given along the lines of anyone in the 'at risk' category having to self-isolate as much as possible whilst the rest of the country tries to plow along as best it can.

[Mr.Tease]

18 minutes ago, Friendly Banter said:

Posted in the other thread, but I work for the NBA. Got some news today that all non-game events are to be canceled through the end of the season.    The league is still determining on whether to proceed without fans for the remainder of the regular season or to suspend all play indefinitely.   The call was pretty doom and gloom. Our government contact said that there will be a nationwide ban of large scale events soon. They have a model that shows upwards of 100 million Americans to contract the virus. Conservatively 50 milllion is expectedly, with 100,000 dead. 
 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for sharing the info (I watch a lot of the nba) , grim times

[efcfanwirral]

39 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Oh dear, I need to step away from the phone... my punctuation seems to be multiplying!!! At an exponential rate!!!?!!

Is that multiplying at the same rate as the beers? 😂

[Zoo Music Girl]

So what will be in this meeting tomorrow then, do we think? Suggestions to shut down schools, work from home etc?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

7 minutes ago, kingbadger said:

I'm actually feeling slightly positive in terms of the festival going ahead. Looking at the stats we are managing ok thus far without any severe restrictions. Theres going to be a big spike at some point, but I actually give credit to the government for not pulling the trigger too early on putting us into lockdown etc. We can only do it once without completely fucking the economy, and people are only ever likely to comply with a total shutdown once, so why do it now when we're not in a complete mess? I know it can be preventative, but everyone is saying we're gonna get a massive jump at some point, so seems the best time to pull the trigger is when that trend appears to help steady the flow of cases.

Can see half measures until we see a sharp rise, then a full scale lockdown to limit the damage/spread to a relatively manageable level. The global economy simply can't stand a total shutdown of large events etc over more than a 4 week period I'd have thought. Like others have said, how many businesses are there whose finances are based on a rolling basis, i.e monies paid up front for things knowing their revenue will be up massively during the summer to compensate. The economy is teetering on the brink as it is, especially with Brexit ahead.

It's an awful thought but there is going to have to be some balancing of the spread of the virus v the damage of the economy. Obviously there is no way of knowing the potential figures but for instance you could save say an extra 10,000 people by completely shutting the country down, but that would almost guarantee recession which could equally end up costing far more lives in the wrong run. I imagine this is why the 'take it on the chin' and 'no need to cancel mass gatherings' message has been put out there for a while. The government knows full well they can't shut the country down for an extensive period of time so it's a case of damage limitation both in terms of the spread and the economy.

We all have loved ones at serious risk, but I can see why there needs to be a balance. I envisage there being advice given along the lines of anyone in the 'at risk' category having to self-isolate as much as possible whilst the rest of the country tries to plow along as best it can.

In terms of the massive jump, we won’t necessarily get a massive jump as such, viruses like this grow exponentially, if you look at the last few days and how many new cases we have seen it’s gone 50,60,80, tomorrow is very likely to be above 100... that trend will continue with each new day having more new cases than the previous day. If you look at our daily case increase on a graph at the moment it’s a relatively flat upward curve but that upward curve will get steeper until it’s virtually vertical.

The government have held off until the point that curve is about to start arcing up more aggressively.

Come to think of it, writing this it’s very likely tomorrow we will see an increase in cases of over 100, Thats a number that will stand out in the headlines and really grab peoples attention. It wouldn’t surprise me if they’ve purposefully times the delay phase until just before we hit a daily increase of 100+ cases.

[efcfanwirral]

 

5 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

So what will be in this meeting tomorrow then, do we think? Suggestions to shut down schools, work from home etc?

Honestly, I'd be surprised if they actually do these things now - I imagine they'll announce plans to enact plans 

This article; from someone who I envy for their way with data and charts, is brilliant. It is essentially statistical modelling of it all based on the countries seeing outbreaks so far. Makes for sobering, but essential reading 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Edited March 11, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[bombfrog]

33 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

What’s the odds now? 50/50 at best? 

Let's start a poll.

[MEGABOWL]

Dunno if it means much but I work in Air Traffic and the top echelons are very close to Government. Company Managers have today been canvassing to see how many would need to be off for childcare if the schools were shut from next Friday until after the Easter holidays. 4 weeks in total.

Personally I’m not sure they can afford to wait that long (and the sooner they do it the better from a Glastonbury point of view) but there’s something afoot.

[Zoo Music Girl]

14 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Honestly, I'd be surprised if they actually do these things now - I imagine they'll announce plans to enact plans 

This article; from someone who I envy for their way with data and charts, is brilliant. It is essentially statistical modelling of it all based on the countries seeing outbreaks so far. Makes for sobering, but essential reading 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Thanks for this. Had a bit of a read, but will come back to tomorrow. Really clear article with lots of good graphs as you say. Am starting to get a bit freaked out about all this tbh.

[ModernMan]

10 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Honestly, I'd be surprised if they actually do these things now - I imagine they'll announce plans to enact plans 

This article; from someone who I envy for their way with data and charts, is brilliant. It is essentially statistical modelling of it all based on the countries seeing outbreaks so far. Makes for sobering, but essential reading 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

This article is good but as ever there are several counter arguments to it as well. Though, I do agree we should shut things down gradually and encourage working from home as much as possible. 
 

At the moment I’m feeling as though Glastonbury is a long way away and not really a concern. Its becoming deeply concerning and anxieties are running high I’m sure for loved ones and what the state of everything will be once this slows down (which it will). If we get to April/May and things are improving, Glastonbury will be on no doubt. But there’s a lot that can happen between now and then, and if it’s cancelled I think we will have more to worry about to be honest. 
 

For what it’s worth, I think tickets will be carried over if the ticket holder wants to in the event of cancellation. 

[ThomThomDrum]

17 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

This article; from someone who I envy for their way with data and charts, is brilliant. It is essentially statistical modelling of it all based on the countries seeing outbreaks so far. Makes for sobering, but essential reading 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Just read this independently and was about to share here

 

Excellent work and very much worth the read 

[Gilgamesh69]

6 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Am starting to get a bit freaked out about all this tbh.

Same. My anxiety was bad enough when I was just worrying about girls, work, and general life stuff. Now I've got a potential global catastrophe to worry about and it's sending my stress levels through the roof 😬

[mandolin]

1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

Standing in a sunny field with a cold cider feels a million years away.

Maybe because I’ve already had a few I decided to prove you wrong by going out and standing in a nearby field with a cider in my hand.  I missed the ‘sunny’ part of your quote.  It’s very dark and raining.  I’m now really quite soggy but at least there was no-one else out there so I haven’t increased my risk of catching anything.

[efcfanwirral]

2 minutes ago, mandolin said:

Maybe because I’ve already had a few I decided to prove you wrong by going out and standing in a nearby field with a cider in my hand.  I missed the ‘sunny’ part of your quote.  It’s very dark and raining.  I’m now really quite soggy but at least there was no-one else out there so I haven’t increased my risk of catching anything.

If it's as windy there as here I'm surprised your cider didnt blow away!  

[TownesMR]

1 hour ago, Benja100 said:

One things for sure if it’s cancelled don’t expect to automatically get a ticket for the next one, it’ll be back to f5

I'm not expecting it, but nearly every cancelled festival thus far is offering tickets.

[Friendly Banter]

 Trump just announced suspension of US travel from* Europe.  Everywhere except the UK.  
This is going to change all of my plans outside of Glastonbury.   Holy hell. 
 

edit: FROM Europe.  Still.  

Edited March 12, 2020 by Friendly Banter