Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Today's update:

No unexpected 'good' news today sadly. China's numbers continue to drop and this time they are down 1,210 (16,322). South Korea didn't announce any new recoveries so couldn't come down in terms of numbers but their increase was pretty small which  continues to be encouraging. Up by 242 (7,454).

Further increases in the rest of East Asia on the whole, although nothing too frightening yet. Japan up by 48 (468), Thailand up 5 (24), Vietnam up 3 (18), Taiwan up 1 (30), Malaysia up 12 (105) and Indonesia up 5 (24). No change for Hong Kong (52), Cambodia (1), Macau (0), Singapore (82) and the Philippines actually came down by 1 (30).

Increases in the Middle East seem a little larger than the previous day. Iran is up just under 500 (5,020) but Bahrain also saw a significant jump of 72 (159). Gradual growth elsewhere in the region.

In Europe, we are still very much in the accelerated growth phase. Italy is up 809 after not announcing any recoveries (8,794). Countries in Northern Europe seem to be particularly struggling with large jumps once again for Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark.Germany, France and Spain also with huge jumps and all within 1,500-1,750 cases.

The UK in comparison had more steady growth of 61 in total to 359. No recoveries announced either. Ireland increased by 10 (34).

Africa in comparison didn't see much change yesterday with nothing more than a handful of extra cases throughout the continent. The virus has spread a bit more in South America and we are still waiting for our first recoveries in this region. No huge jumps here though.

In Central America, we have our first death in Panama and a few more cases elsewhere but no large jumps. USA though continues to grow at a worrying rate, up 280 (1,001). Canada's jump was much more gradual (16 to 84) and Australia grew by 17 (84). No major changes elsewhere around the rest of the world.

Does anyone think us being an island helps us in regards to this outbreak? I think not having multiple land borders were any old tom dick or harry can pass through must be helping in slowing things here? 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Havors

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Havors said:

Does anyone think us being an island helps us in regards to this outbreak? I think not having multiple land borders were any old tom dick or harry can pass through but be helping in slowing things here? 

It certainly can’t do any harm 

[Matt42]

I dunno if the “well that’s America” argument works. Have you seen the top billing of this years festival? Most acts taking large slots are american.

If America pulls the plug on most events we will lose most of our lineup because they won’t come.

And no, Glastonbury won’t be ringing round british bands to salvage the lineup, they will just cancel it. It’s make believe to think major british bands will step in with little notice to “save” a festival that they aren’t sure will go ahead anyway.

[Lycra]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

Yeah I get what you are saying but cancelling events that are  over 3 months away seems really knee jerk to me. 

There is no justification as things stand today to cancel but this is a dynamic situation. If restrictions start to be imposed in the coming days/weeks we are still guessing what they will be and for how long they will be in force. Worse case scenario is restricting mass gatherings/crowd limits which impact Glasto. Yes I realise Chris Whitty et al have stated outdoor gatherings carry less risk but that is a generalisation. Some will be more risk than others. There is also to question of mass travel in confirmed space, e.g. coaches, trains etc, to and from the event. If playing football behind closed doors is enforced then the pressure to cancel Glasto will be ramp up significantly. 

 

[MetaKate]

24 minutes ago, Havors said:

Anyone else get the impression America is completely losing the plot and cancelling everything very prematurely?? 

 

18 minutes ago, Sawdusty Surfer said:

America is in some ways much more vunerable than we are. No NHS, no welfare support for most and the vast majority of employers provide no sick pay.

A huge number of workers over there just surviving on each weekly pay packet. They really can't afford not to work.

I can see things getting rather grim over there.

Exactly. Most people cant afford to get tested or to take time off. They're in a really poor position and therefore are resorting to panic.

[Wellyboot]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

I dunno if the “well that’s America” argument works. Have you seen the top billing of this years festival? Most acts taking large slots are american.

If America pulls the plug on most events we will lose most of our lineup because they won’t come.

And no, Glastonbury won’t be ringing round british bands to salvage the lineup, they will just cancel it. It’s make believe to think major british bands will step in with little notice to “save” a festival that they aren’t sure will go ahead anyway.

Bet Chris Martin would tho haha

Coldplay to headline all 3 nights

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

I dunno if the “well that’s America” argument works. Have you seen the top billing of this years festival? Most acts taking large slots are american.

If America pulls the plug on most events we will lose most of our lineup because they won’t come.

And no, Glastonbury won’t be ringing round british bands to salvage the lineup, they will just cancel it. It’s make believe to think major british bands will step in with little notice to “save” a festival that they aren’t sure will go ahead anyway.

It’s almost inevitable that if the festival goes ahead it will be against the backdrop of a number of acts cancelling. However due to a number of factors the US are likely to be hit far harder by this than we are, so why would that necessarily stop a US act coming here?

[MetaKate]

8 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Does this all potentially suggest the weather/temp does have some sort of impact on it?

Moreso air humidity which may be giving the UK a leg up, as rain etc keep the virus from being airborne for too long after a cough or sneeze.

[northernringo]

5 minutes ago, Havors said:

Does anyone think us being an island helps us in regards to this outbreak? I think not having multiple land borders were any old tom dick or harry can pass through must be helping in slowing things here? 

Yea I think it will help, and again further for Ireland due to poor transport links within the country.

6 minutes ago, Kalopsia said:

Thanks again for the update.

Do you have stats for the individual US areas? I know New Rochelle has been placed under "containment" with the national guard sent in, but other than that any significant areas of concern?

The dashboard I use for my stats has state by state figures for the US:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Additionally, this is a good one for the UK:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

7 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Does this all potentially suggest the weather/temp does have some sort of impact on it?

I'm hopeful that is the case but probably nowhere near enough information to say for sure. 

For example, we saw large increases in Bahrain which is pretty hot at the minute which would suggest that temperature isn't as important. On the other hand, it is strange that it is going 'crazy' in the Nordic countries which are obviously very cold.

[Havors]

3 minutes ago, Wellyboot said:

Bet Chris Martin would tho haha

Coldplay to headline all 3 nights

If it means the festival goes ahead he can play as many times as he bloody wants haha 

[Lycra]

13 minutes ago, Garrett_Salas said:

Maybe, there may be a herd effect, but I still imagine these decisions are not being taken lightly. I'm one of the doomsayers, granted, but I'm very much of the opinion that people thinking this is some discrete event that we can just get through in a month or so and out the other end are not being realistic. 

I'm with you on this sentiment. GFL will not want to push the go button to build the site if significant doubt still exists on the fest going ahead. 

[Matt42]

2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s almost inevitable that if the festival goes ahead it will be against the backdrop of a number of acts cancelling. However due to a number of factors the US are likely to be hit far harder by this than we are, so why would that necessarily stop a US act coming here?

I think a lot of people are forgetting how tours work. If half your dates get cancelled most acts will just delay their tours. If the US is hit with further travel restrictions they won’t leave the country.

They know that all of their tour dates ARE able to be Rescheduled. They know that they can just say to Glastonbury that they will play next year instead. The problem is Glastonbury doesn’t really have much to force them into playing if it’s a health & safety risk.

4 minutes ago, Wellyboot said:

Bet Chris Martin would tho haha

Coldplay to headline all 3 nights

It’s a good joke but it’s not what would happen. Trying to salvage the lineup when a huge chunk of your major acts have pulled the plug is not worth the hassle.

If America increase harder travel restrictions this festival will be forced into cancelling. It’s nothing to do with whether the U.K. is doing fine or not, or x country is worse than x country. Glastonbury can’t go ahead if it’s acts can’t play.

[The Martini Police]

7 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I dunno if the “well that’s America” argument works. Have you seen the top billing of this years festival? Most acts taking large slots are american.

If America pulls the plug on most events we will lose most of our lineup because they won’t come.

And no, Glastonbury won’t be ringing round british bands to salvage the lineup, they will just cancel it. It’s make believe to think major british bands will step in with little notice to “save” a festival that they aren’t sure will go ahead anyway.

Scenes when Foals and the 1975 headline the Pyramid after all. 

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, Lycra said:

I'm with you on this sentiment. GFL will not want to push the go button to build the site if significant doubt still exists on the fest going ahead. 

Yeah I personally think they will have the resale, then make a decision end of April possibly. If it is still all up in the air I think they will cancel so as not to waste a load of time and money setting up only to be forced to cancel it not long after. 

[sisco]

When does the site build fully start?

[northernringo]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

Yeah I personally think they will have the resale, then make a decision end of April possibly. If it is still all up in the air I think they will cancel so as not to waste a load of time and money setting up only to be forced to cancel it not long after. 

Will they be covered by their insurance if they decide to cancel though?

[squirrelarmy]

@Matt42 do you actually want the festival to go ahead? Seems like you’re almost wishing that it does get cancelled. 

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

22 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Today's update:

No unexpected 'good' news today sadly. China's numbers continue to drop and this time they are down 1,210 (16,322). South Korea didn't announce any new recoveries so couldn't come down in terms of numbers but their increase was pretty small which  continues to be encouraging. Up by 242 (7,454).

Further increases in the rest of East Asia on the whole, although nothing too frightening yet. Japan up by 48 (468), Thailand up 5 (24), Vietnam up 3 (18), Taiwan up 1 (30), Malaysia up 12 (105) and Indonesia up 5 (24). No change for Hong Kong (52), Cambodia (1), Macau (0), Singapore (82) and the Philippines actually came down by 1 (30).

Increases in the Middle East seem a little larger than the previous day. Iran is up just under 500 (5,020) but Bahrain also saw a significant jump of 72 (159). Gradual growth elsewhere in the region.

In Europe, we are still very much in the accelerated growth phase. Italy is up 809 after not announcing any recoveries (8,794). Countries in Northern Europe seem to be particularly struggling with large jumps once again for Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark.Germany, France and Spain also with huge jumps and all within 1,500-1,750 cases.

The UK in comparison had more steady growth of 61 in total to 359. No recoveries announced either. Ireland increased by 10 (34).

Africa in comparison didn't see much change yesterday with nothing more than a handful of extra cases throughout the continent. The virus has spread a bit more in South America and we are still waiting for our first recoveries in this region. No huge jumps here though.

In Central America, we have our first death in Panama and a few more cases elsewhere but no large jumps. USA though continues to grow at a worrying rate, up 280 (1,001). Canada's jump was much more gradual (16 to 84) and Australia grew by 17 (84). No major changes elsewhere around the rest of the world.

Great intel @northernringo, is it in bad taste that I'm reading it with "At The Sign Of The Swinging Cymbal" in my head at the same time?

[Lycra]

5 minutes ago, MetaKate said:

 

Exactly. Most people cant afford to get tested or to take time off. They're in a really poor position and therefore are resorting to panic.

They'll lucky to get a test. Read earlier this week that the US as a whole only had ca 15,500 test kits whilstNorth Carolina had a mere 340 test kits.

[mattiloy]

7 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I think a lot of people are forgetting how tours work. If half your dates get cancelled most acts will just delay their tours. If the US is hit with further travel restrictions they won’t leave the country.

They know that all of their tour dates ARE able to be Rescheduled. They know that they can just say to Glastonbury that they will play next year instead. The problem is Glastonbury doesn’t really have much to force them into playing if it’s a health & safety risk.

It’s a good joke but it’s not what would happen. Trying to salvage the lineup when a huge chunk of your major acts have pulled the plug is not worth the hassle.

If America increase harder travel restrictions this festival will be forced into cancelling. It’s nothing to do with whether the U.K. is doing fine or not, or x country is worse than x country. Glastonbury can’t go ahead if it’s acts can’t play.

Glastonbury can go ahead if American acts don't play.

[Matt42]

Just now, squirrelarmy said:

@Matt42 do you actually want the festival to go ahead? Seems like you’re almost wishing that it does get cancelled. 

I want a miracle to happen but unfortunately day by day the reality of this is becoming clearer. There’s more to this than most people realise and the problem goes way beyond “well the mortality rate is low”.

Unfortunately us Brits have a problem with discussing the reality of things. If you point it out you’re considered a doomer.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, sisco said:

When does the site build fully start?

There will be people better placed to answer this than me, but the vast majority of it is a lot later than you think. It makes sense to only have to pay for things like tents and stages for the shortest time possible, so a lot of it springs up in the few weeks immediately beforehand 

[Breeze]

1 hour ago, Gregfc15 said:

You’ve picked 2 examples of countries that mismanaged the initial outbreak, (a stage you aren’t yet at) and one that’s public health policy is similar to the uk. I’d hardly call losing control then introducing harsh measures “best practice” and something to aspire to.

Singapore has some inherent benefits due to its government set up but has done a great job using similar tactics that the UK have followed.

Sorry I though I was clear but re-reading again I see I wasn't. Obviously, for example, nobody will say that China's initial approach (cover up) was 'best practice' - there is nobody that dumb. I was talking about measures taken once they started taking measures.

The only really useful measures the UK is taking are contact tracing via PHE, some cleaning of places where the infected have been (very limited compared to China or South Korea for instance - typically just a few health centres etc. in the UK)  and public information about washing hands etc. Proactive attempts to detect sufferers are woeful and overall we are making the same mistake as the US has made these last weeks and not testing enough people to identify those who should self-isolate. 

We may be around the middle of the pack for growth right now, and we'll see if that continues, but the trajectory seems obvious and there is no sign of the deceleration we see in China, South Korea or Singapore, nor the measures required to achieve that.

On Singapore, the UK is not using similar tactics *at all*. Hotels taking temperatures and reporting those running a fever? At airports? Complete travel ban on visitors from Italy, Iran and South Korea? The UK does something if someone phones up NHS 24 or their doctor. Often it is just to tell them to stay at home and not bother testing them unless they have recently travelled from an outbreak area despite community transmission occurring in the UK. It is a million miles away from Singapore.

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I dunno if the “well that’s America” argument works. Have you seen the top billing of this years festival? Most acts taking large slots are american.

If America pulls the plug on most events we will lose most of our lineup because they won’t come.

And no, Glastonbury won’t be ringing round british bands to salvage the lineup, they will just cancel it. It’s make believe to think major british bands will step in with little notice to “save” a festival that they aren’t sure will go ahead anyway.

See you in June!

[Breeze]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

If we are to believe our best scientific and medical experts, who should be impartial civil servants so there is no reason we shouldn’t, then their suggestion all along is that banning things like sporting events and large outdoor gatherings would be largely ineffective.

Where is this 'it is largely ineffective' info from? And if it is largely ineffective why is it planned for the next phase?