Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[Suprefan]

53 minutes ago, Homer said:

Re events getting postponed, I was chatting to the MD of a large catering company last night. I was mentioning (food) industry events in the UK that are getting postponed. He told me that those events won’t be happening; that they just have to say ‘postponed’ for insurance purposes.

time to read up on how insurance works for these things. If you want to see the true underbelly of promoters than look no further than Ultra in Miami. They are doing everything they can not to issue refunds because they likely spent all the money they made from ticket sales.


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[Ozanne]

13 minutes ago, Freddyflintstonree said:

Trying to stay positive.. Not easy in this thread! 

Fuck me. Within 5 minutes of your posts someone had come in here pouring cold water over any excitement/hope your posts generated. It’s like some people are dead set on making people feel glum and anxious! 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

It's no more level headed to be confident Glastonbury will be fine than saying OMFG Italy! China was lying, we're all going to die.

Both positions seem to be pretty unsubstantiated to me. Glastonbury 2020's future is uncertain, that seems to be the only level headed position to take.

I agree, I’m not confident it will go ahead, it could go either way. But the fact remains Italy is in lockdown until April and Coachella was next month. Glastonbury is 3.5 months away, so neither Coachella being postponed or Italy being in lockdown helps us determine the fate of Glastonbury either way. So not point being overly positive or negative at this stage.

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It's no more level headed to be confident Glastonbury will be fine than saying OMFG Italy! China was lying, we're all going to die.

Both positions seem to be pretty unsubstantiated to me. Glastonbury 2020's future is uncertain, that seems to be the only level headed position to take.

This 

1 minute ago, Mouseboy11 said:

I'd be surprised, things like that would just feed into the panic more. I think it'll be business as usual until there's reason for otherwise.

The reason  I think it might be delayed is twofold really: 1. It would send a pretty clear message it's definitely going ahead if they release it, when they probably can't be that certain just yet. 2. High potential of international dropouts, particularly from the US. 

I could be wrong though.

[jparx]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

I’ve also been looking at the details of the Italian quarantine. It’s not as extreme as it makes out to be. People can still travel for work and for family emergencies. I’m also assuming that they will also need to travel to buy food etc. 
 

It’s not as extreme as the Chinese quarantine and I’m not actually sure if it will make much difference other than severely damaging the leisure and entertainment industries. It may slow down the spread of the virus but it won’t stop it. Is that enough to warrant such extreme measures? 

 

That's the thing, right? No one knows how best to combat the spread. In a month we might have more data that suggests these extreme measures don't actually make much of a difference and just destroy the economy. Different countries are trying different approaches but we're still not too clued up on which is most effective. We really need to assess things in mid April before we can start and have ANY idea what's going to happen moving forward.

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Fuck me. Within 5 minutes of your posts someone had come in here pouring cold water over any excitement/hope your posts generated. It’s like some people are dead set on making people feel glum and anxious! 

The irony being as soon as someone says something remotely negative then you jump in with this. Can't we just have a debate?

[Ozanne]

That’s what we have been doing, I’m just saying it seems as soon as a bit of positivity comes in here some rush to stamp it out. 
 

The bigger irony here for me is that normally I’m on the negative, pessimistic side of the arguement 😂

Edited March 10, 2020 by Ozanne

[zahidf]

 

My reading is that the UK are trying to avoid an Italy style response. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

That’s what we have been doing, I’m just saying it seems as soon as a bit of positivity comes in here some rush to stamp it out. 

Yeah you had said that about 100 times now. We get it, you are completely sure it's going ahead. Others aren't. We are allowed to post our opinions.

Edited March 10, 2020 by Zoo Music Girl

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, jparx said:

That's the thing, right? No one knows how best to combat the spread. In a month we might have more data that suggests these extreme measures don't actually make much of a difference and just destroy the economy. Different countries are trying different approaches but we're still not too clued up on which is most effective. We really need to assess things in mid April before we can start and have ANY idea what's going to happen moving forward.

As Merkel said, its not about stopping it, but delaying it enough for the health services to cope and for the hot weather to kill it off more.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

28 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

thing is, they will still increase transmission compared to everyone staying home.

And I think we might have been mis-reading things thinking that Glastonbury is only at risk during the 'delay' phase. After that comes 'mitigate' which might still see events being cancelled by govt.  

Yes, I don’t want to be one of the harbingers of doom but their four stage plan doesn’t really make sense chronologically either.

The third step is research, surely that would automatically be happening alongside any current phase of the plan? They surely aren’t just going to reach the end of the containment phase and say, right, let’s just pause everything and let us look into this for a little while?

Edited March 10, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[squirrelarmy]

4 minutes ago, jparx said:

That's the thing, right? No one knows how best to combat the spread. In a month we might have more data that suggests these extreme measures don't actually make much of a difference and just destroy the economy. Different countries are trying different approaches but we're still not too clued up on which is most effective. We really need to assess things in mid April before we can start and have ANY idea what's going to happen moving forward.

Coupled with the information that the virus isn’t as deadly as feared especially for those who aren’t in a high risk group it seems to me that there needs to be a clear action plan. 
 

Those in high risk groups should avoid situations where they could be infected. Everyone needs to be extra vigilant when it comes to spreading infections personally. 
 

Pretty much what the government has already told us to do. And I hate agreeing with our government!

[zahidf]

From the guardian

 

As the whole of Italy goes into lockdown, there are some reassuring signs that measures are starting to work. Across the 11 towns that went into quarantine over two weeks ago, the number of cases is beginning to fall.

“In the province of Lodi, and even more so, in Codogno, there’s a net reduction in the number of positive cases,” said Giulio Galleria, the welfare councillor for Lombardy, the region worst affected.

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Yeah you had said that about 100 times now. We get it, you are completely sure it's going ahead. Others aren't. We are allowed to post our opinions.

Maybe try and focus on the positives, it might help make things more enjoyable. I didn’t realise you disliked positivity so much. 

[stuartbert two hats]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

That’s what we have been doing, I’m just saying it seems as soon as a bit of positivity comes in here some rush to stamp it out. 

You mean as soon as someone makes a point, someone else makes a counter point? Like a debate?

Between the wild positivity and hysterical doom mongering there's actually a reasonable discussion going on in here.

[Ozanne]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

You mean as soon as someone makes a point, someone else makes a counter point? Like a debate?

Between the wild positivity and hysterical doom mongering there's actually a reasonable discussion going on in here.

I know, I’ve contributed to that. 

[st dan]

I don’t understand the why we aren’t just moving from ‘Phase 1 - Containment’ to the ‘Phase 2 - Delay’ now as a precaution.

For example, my employer is waiting for this official stance from the Government before telling us all to WFH - whilst everyday the likelihood of somebody in here catching this on the train, bus etc is ever increasing. This isn’t going to go away without some fairly drastic actions and were surely just delaying the inevitable. The sooner they do this then the more likely Glastonbury will go ahead imo. 

[Gwladboy]

22 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Sorry yes, I meant to say "you are right, everything is fine and you will still be able to go to your music festival 100% guaranteed"

That’s the attitude!

[stuartbert two hats]

9 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yes, I don’t want to be one of the harbingers of doom but their four stage plan doesn’t really make sense chronologically either.

The third step is research, surely that would automatically be happening alongside any current phase of the plan? They surely aren’t just going to reach the end of the containment phase and say, right, let’s just pause everything and let us look into this for a little while?

I think the four stage plan is a way of simplifying things for the public. Containment helps to delay the virus and research and mitigation will presumably be underway now. I suspect each stage just describes what the main focus is at any point in time. It's a bit like a pyramid where each stage contains all the future stages, but not the past stages.  So:

1. Contain, delay, mitigate, research

2. Delay, mitigate, research

3. Mitigate, research

4. Research (no need to mitigate as it's largely gone until next year)

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

For example, my employer is waiting for this official stance from the Government before telling us all to WFH

Just been having the same discussion at my work, out of 150 employees only about 10 of us could actually work from home. I can carry on with my work as normal but the rest of the place will have to shut down. 
 

I can see the sense in a delaying action for the next few weeks to try and get us to easter, a time where a lot of companies already are running on reduced workload. We could handle a shutdown at that time especially if a lot of our customers are also shutting down their factories too. 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Just been having the same discussion at my work, out of 150 employees only about 10 of us could actually work from home. I can carry on with my work as normal but the rest of the place will have to shut down. 
 

I can see the sense in a delaying action for the next few weeks to try and get us to easter, a time where a lot of companies already are running on reduced workload. We could handle a shutdown at that time especially if a lot of our customers are also shutting down their factories too. 

Also they want people to self isolate at the right time: too early and people will be too annoyed to do it at the right time

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

7 minutes ago, st dan said:

I don’t understand the why we aren’t just moving from ‘Phase 1 - Containment’ to the ‘Phase 2 - Delay’ now as a precaution.

For example, my employer is waiting for this official stance from the Government before telling us all to WFH - whilst everyday the likelihood of somebody in here catching this on the train, bus etc is ever increasing. This isn’t going to go away without some fairly drastic actions and were surely just delaying the inevitable. The sooner they do this then the more likely Glastonbury will go ahead imo. 

No point going into lockdown mode too early as it can only be maintained for so long.

[harderfaster]

The real question:

When Glastonbury goes ahead, will there be enough hand sanitiser again?! 

[Zoo Music Girl]

14 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Maybe try and focus on the positives, it might help make things more enjoyable. I didn’t realise you disliked positivity so much. 

Haha wow 

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, harderfaster said:

The real question:

When Glastonbury goes ahead, will there be enough hand sanitiser again?! 

If you struggle to find some I can sell you a couple out of my stash of 500 bottles. It will be at a massive premium though.