Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Oh wait sorry.

Yeah this is nothing absolutely nothing. In fact I reckon this is a democrat plot to ruin trumps presidency!

Theres a mid ground between complacency and fear mongering 

[Matt42]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

South Korea which has done the most extensive testing so far of any country has around 0.7% rate. This probably still doesn’t give the full picture as they still haven’t tested everyone who may or may not have the virus. 
 

As more people are tested the rate drops. We still don’t know what the actual rate is. 

Why is it ludicrous to think that the outbreak in Italy might be worse than in South Korea?

[august1]

I think we will see Italian measures in April/May. Back to normal-ish in June. If they do too good of a job preventing it spreading its possibly worse to have it around still going into next winter. 

[Matt42]

Just now, zahidf said:

Theres a mid ground between complacency and fear mongering 

Where was the lie in what I said though? So far the fatality rate for Italy is 6%. That is a fact. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

8 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

6% estimated fatality rate in Italy. The flu is 0.1%

I’m sorry.

China 100% lied about the severity of this disease. 

Well unless we’re lying about it the death rate here is just above 1% and currently 0% below 60.

[RarerThanDandyB]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Oh wait sorry.

Yeah this is nothing absolutely nothing. In fact I reckon this is a democrat plot to ruin trumps presidency!

Or to stop Liverpool winning the league 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, dotdash79 said:

 

Expect it to be in the middle of this about 2%

Why? Surely it's going to be much closer to the country that is leading the way in testing, not in the mid point between a country that's barely testing and a country that's doing a really good job.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Where was the lie in what I said though? So far the fatality rate for Italy is 6%. That is a fact. 

Your china comment wasnt fact

[zahidf]

This smart ass is in self isolation now 

 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Where was the lie in what I said though? So far the fatality rate for Italy is 6%. That is a fact. 

No it is not! They're doing a bad job of testing, so we don't know the fatality rate. That is a fact.

[waynewdk]

The main reason Italy will have a high rate is that they have the oldest population in Europe

[Matt42]

Why do people trust the country which has welded people into their flats and locked people in their homes to die to lower the number of confirmed cases?

[dotdash79]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Why? Surely it's going to be much closer to the country that is leading the way in testing, not in the mid point between a country that's barely testing and a country that's doing a really good job.

2% is closer to the lower figure, also i expect the age demographics for the countries will have an impact on the overall death rate.

[stuartbert two hats]

A reminder of the numbers:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

[Matt42]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

No it is not! They're doing a bad job of testing, so we don't know the fatality rate. That is a fact.

7989 diagnosed
▪️4316  currently hospitalised
▪️734 in intensive care
▪️463 dead.

Looks like a 6% fatality level to me.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Surely the real death rate will be some point lower than the death rate for the country That has done the most testing?

in any scenario, they actual death rate anywhere will be lower than any published figures, not higher.

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Why is it ludicrous to think that the outbreak in Italy might be worse than in South Korea?

Ah of course this virus is specifically targeting Italians. 

Some useful data here regarding test rates: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

“Italy announced on Feb. 26 that it would relax its testing criteria to the point that contacts linked to confirmed cases or recent travelers to outbreak areaswould not be tested anymore, unless they show symptoms.”

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

7989 diagnosed
▪️4316  currently hospitalised
▪️734 in intensive care
▪️463 dead.

Looks like a 6% fatality level to me.

But everyone knows the actual death rate is much lower as proven by every country that has tested more people.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

7989 diagnosed
▪️4316  currently hospitalised
▪️734 in intensive care
▪️463 dead.

Looks like a 6% fatality level to me.

Do you understand the concept of undiagnosed cases? And the effect that can have on the fatality rate?

[stopwn1981]

The % is unknown and will be probably forever realistically, but surely all can agree now that this is clearly a very dangerous disease.

[Matt42]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Do you understand the concept of undiagnosed cases? And the effect that can have on the fatality rate?

Yes but is 6% of the confirmed cases in Italy being fatal not a bit concerning? China’s numbers are unbelievably skewed and you don’t have to be a tin foil theorist to realise that. A country like Italy should be presenting a more accurate view of what’s actually happening.

[stuartbert two hats]

@Matt42 you can make a reasonable point about there being a high fatality rate based on the data coming out of Italy to build a case for this virus being more deadly than it appears without freaking out and throwing out these cast iron statements when the situation is actually pretty uncertain.

Personally when trying to work out how deadly this thing is, it's worth looking at a few things:

* How long has the virus been widespread?

* What's the current rate of increase in the country? 

* What's the level of testing?

 

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

The % is unknown and will be probably forever realistically, but surely all can agree now that this is clearly a very dangerous disease.

Depending on your definition of very dangerous, not really. The actual death rate will be lower than the death rate for the country that has carried out the most tests, so it will be lower than 1%.

My personal definition of very dangerous doesn’t cover things that have a less than 1% chance of killing you, but you may categorise things differently to me.

 

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Yes but is 6% of the confirmed cases in Italy being fatal not a bit concerning? China’s numbers are unbelievably skewed and you don’t have to be a tin foil theorist to realise that. A country like Italy should be presenting a more accurate view of what’s actually happening.

Did you look at the link myself and @stuartbert two hats posted? Italy aren’t doing extensive testing. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Yes but is 6% of the confirmed cases in Italy being fatal not a bit concerning? China’s numbers are unbelievably skewed and you don’t have to be a tin foil theorist to realise that. A country like Italy should be presenting a more accurate view of what’s actually happening.

Yes, it's concerning. However, I'm inclined to put more faith in the country that's doing over five times the amount of testing.

This shit's complicated and uncertain. We're not in a position to make such definitive statements about which countries are lying.