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Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

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26 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

California has 60 cases. They’ve had 1 death. They also have a cruise ship with 3500 pax moored off SF harbour waiting for tests at a passenger on a previous cruise has tested positive. State emergency declared (mainly to unlock federal funds, but still way more than 1 case)...

Thanks for the correction guys. It's strange how differently they have reacted to the risk. Take several thousand cruise ship passengers who've been in close proximity in hygienic conditions for an extended period and they're treated like plague victims. Yet take a daily attendance of 99,000 plus stall holders, musicians, crew, security etc over 6 days with less than perfect hygiene and it's apparently low risk 🤔🤔  

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7 hours ago, nicnac1983 said:

just seen this on Perez Hilton’s insta - hoping he’s just trying to get likes

42781D00-6AEA-4E0E-8915-0F0FA06D7238.png

The BUY MY BOOK!!! comment directly underneath should tell you all you need to know...

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7 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Thanks for the correction guys. It's strange how differently they have reacted to the risk. Take several thousand cruise ship passengers who've been in close proximity in hygienic conditions for an extended period and they're treated like plague victims. Yet take a daily attendance of 99,000 plus stall holders, musicians, crew, security etc over 6 days with less than perfect hygiene and it's apparently low risk 🤔🤔  

Well I guess it’s as low risk as any town/city, public transport etc? A cruise ship is the perfect scenario to try and contain things if it turns out somebody has it, so why wouldn’t they?

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton

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I think if the symptoms hit someone on a cruise ship it makes sense to try and contain it but it's much more difficult if it's on land as people have already been in contact with so many people before they became symptomatic. For now I think the best policy is be hygienic, try not to touch your face (which is harder than you think) and be sensible based on the people you interact with. I am a generally healthy 42 year old living with a generally healthy 44 year old so suspect even if I get it I would live through it so am taking the keep calm and carry on approach. My husband's Aunt though has many long term health problems so for her and her family it is undoubtedly a bigger risk and concern. 

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4 minutes ago, SecretFish said:

Just another viewpoint 

 

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Oh, I'm sure the head of e-commerce at flydubai has no vested interests...

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3 minutes ago, wonker said:

Oh, I'm sure the head of e-commerce at flydubai has no vested interests...

He’s not wrong though 

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15 minutes ago, SecretFish said:

Just another viewpoint 

 

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So whatsapp and Facebook are spreading the virus?? :D:D:D  Bastards!! 

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2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

He’s not wrong though 

No, but he's presenting the facts in a very deliberate way.

Yes, obviously there is more social media now than 20 years ago.

Mortality rate for < 50s - that's a shit argument that I hate, because it's very much the 'I'm all right Jack' attitude.

Global mortality rate outside China is 1.55% - that's still a hell of a lot.

80,000 of 89,000 infections are in China - what's the relevance of that? They've quarantined whole cities and it's that much and infection rate is only going up in the West.

I'm not saying that we should all panic, but I am saying that there is something to be deeply concerned about. 'An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure' is an expression for a reason.

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I think I should change my vote on the other thread.... the more I read and the more I see the media scaremongering the more I think everything this summer is going to be cancelled....  Sorry, I dont mean to be Mr Doom and gloom....

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-peak-cases-could-be-cut-by-social-distancing-11950397?fbclid=IwAR0EgVB1lkZXcBj8g763niSBcI6uoz9HWODVoF-VWGKwXxRnAkOz6_vr15w

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4 minutes ago, SecretFish said:

Just another viewpoint 

 

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This is definitely true. I do think social media is responsible for causing panic and anxiety within people. I've seen it in Glastonbury groups all the time where one person's level of organisation makes other people panic about not being similarly organised. I've seen it with peopke worrying about what outfits they should wear, whether they buy their kids enough for Christmas. I think social media exposes the worst and the best of us. 

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4 minutes ago, wonker said:

No, but he's presenting the facts in a very deliberate way.

Yes, obviously there is more social media now than 20 years ago.

Mortality rate for < 50s - that's a shit argument that I hate, because it's very much the 'I'm all right Jack' attitude.

Global mortality rate outside China is 1.55% - that's still a hell of a lot.

80,000 of 89,000 infections are in China - what's the relevance of that? They've quarantined whole cities and it's that much and infection rate is only going up in the West.

I'm not saying that we should all panic, but I am saying that there is something to be deeply concerned about. 'An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure' is an expression for a reason.

You may not like what he's saying but it's factually correct. Social media is amplifying this way out of proportion.

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8 minutes ago, wonker said:

No, but he's presenting the facts in a very deliberate way.

Yes, obviously there is more social media now than 20 years ago.

Mortality rate for < 50s - that's a shit argument that I hate, because it's very much the 'I'm all right Jack' attitude.

Global mortality rate outside China is 1.55% - that's still a hell of a lot.

80,000 of 89,000 infections are in China - what's the relevance of that? They've quarantined whole cities and it's that much and infection rate is only going up in the West.

I'm not saying that we should all panic, but I am saying that there is something to be deeply concerned about. 'An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure' is an expression for a reason.

Not necessarily, it helps to highlight how dangerous the virus actually is in the grand scheme of things. The mortality rate is still only 15% above 80 anyway, but the mortality rate for anything when you’re above 80 is gong to be pretty high regardless. As a human being you’ve only get a 30% chance of reaching 90, so there is a good chance something will kill you before then, whatever it is.

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton

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8 minutes ago, SecretFish said:

Just another viewpoint 

 

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While he has compared it to swine flu, what's missing from that is the case fatality rate for seasonal flu (about 0.1%, but it kills between 250,000 and 650,000 people per year). If this virus were to get a similar foothold, then the numbers of fatalities would be extremely significant (given that the fatality rate here seems to be somewhere from 1%-4%...ie, if similar numbers of people were to become infected as get the regular flu, there would be 2.5m upwards deaths). This is what health authorities are afraid of. The panic with swine flu was that is was a strain similar to the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918 (with a huge fatality rate)...didn't end up infecting anywhere near as many people as it might have as it didn't become endemic, can only hope the same thing happens here (and try to limit spread to achieve this)...The flip side is that there are major differences between flu and these new coronaviruses. Flu is endemic and is in constant circulation in the population. Flu drifts every year, so we essentially deal with a new virus every year (and the race begins to make new vaccines based on the most prevalent strains). Big shifts in the structure of the virus cause the massive outbreaks...coronaviruses will drift, but they aren't built to change massively in one big jump so outbreaks occur when they get a new host (in this case, seems to be bats to humans), not when they change so much we have no immunity to them. That's what's happened here, so the better comparison is with other coronavirus outbreaks (SARS and MERS). Thankfully, this virus seems to have a much lower fatality rate than either of the two previous major new coronavirus outbreaks. On the other hand, this probably means more people will become infected (harder to infect people when you are so sick you can't move about, much easier when you think you only have a sniffle). 

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12 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Not necessarily, it helps to highlight how dangerous the virus actually is in the grand scheme of things. The mortality rate is still only 15% above 80 anyway, but the mortality rate for anything when you’re above 80 is gong to be pretty high regardless. As a human being you’ve only get a 30% chance of reaching 90, so there is a good chance something will kill you before then, whatever it is.

Very true

But You really know how to cheer up the older festers! 😉😁

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12 minutes ago, Havors said:

I think I should change my vote on the other thread.... the more I read and the more I see the media scaremongering the more I think everything this summer is going to be cancelled....  Sorry, I dont mean to be Mr Doom and gloom....

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-peak-cases-could-be-cut-by-social-distancing-11950397?fbclid=IwAR0EgVB1lkZXcBj8g763niSBcI6uoz9HWODVoF-VWGKwXxRnAkOz6_vr15w

You said it right there, it's scaremongering.  We may(and hopefully will) see some social distancing but I can't see it going past early June.

 

 

 

As @guypjfreak linked in his post, the london marathon is still going ahead at this point and that attracts 40,000 runners alone.

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Back on Pope watch, someone within the Vatican has been confirmed to have the virus. This means 0.1% of that country are now infected. 

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1 minute ago, Kinkyinuit said:

You said it right there, it's scaremongering.  We may(and hopefully will) see some social distancing but I can't see it going past early June.

 

 

 

As @guypjfreak linked in his post, the london marathon is still going ahead at this point and that attracts 40,000 runners alone.

Still going ahead at this point means nothing. The ramp up of plans will happen rapidly depending on the numbers and areas infected. Like they will just cancel it a couple of days before if need be if the outbreak gets stronger. 

And as we see in the link i posted... social distancing is not just gonna be done and all back to normal in just a few weeks.  I am more leaning towards a bad outcome for festivals than not at the moment....

This it depends how the next couple of weeks unfold.

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One problem at all festivals could be wristbanding.  A great way to spread nasties.

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Today's update:

Overall not a very good day, particularly in Europe but it was expected.

In China, cases continued to drop and there was a reduction of 1,460. Not as steep a reduction as previous days but this tail off is expected. Total cases now at 23,755. Some good news on the Diamond Cruise Ship too, case numbers down by 40 as recoveries look like they are starting to come through. In the rest of East Asia, there were no real disasters but also not much good news. More gradual increases than previously and one new country as well Bhutan (1). Singapore grew by 7 (39), Thailand by 1 (16), Japan by 29 (no new recoveries), Philippines by 2 (3, their first increase in quite some time), Taiwan by 2 (31). Indonesia (2), Macau (1), Vietnam (0), Cambodia (0) and Malaysia (28) remained the same. Hong Kong went down by 3 (57).

South Korea saw another large increase but also a good spike in the number of recoveries. It is important this continue over the weekend. Total cases up by 406 to 6,418.

In the Middle East, things weren't too bad. One new country in Palestine (4) but the rest (excluding Iran) seem to be containing it to some extent with just gradual increases. UAE grew 1 (24), Oman 1 (14), Saudi Arabia 3 (5), Lebanon 3 (15), Bahrain 3 (55) and Kuwait 2 (58). No changes for Afghanistan (0), Israel (14), Iraq (33) and Qatar (8). Iran grew by 389 to 2,667 in total.

In Africa, we had one new country in South Africa (1). Senegal, Nigeria and Tunisia saw no increases but Egypt grew by 1 (2) as did Morocco (2) and Algeria increased by 5 to 17.

Europe was a bit of an expected disaster yesterday as we saw large spikes throughout various countries. I'll start with the one bit of good news and that is Denmark actually went down by 1 (9) but no other European country saw a reduction. Large spikes were seen in Netherlands (up 44 to 82), Norway (up 35 to 91), Sweden (up 59 to 94), Germany (up 283 to 529), Spain (up 59 to 277), France (up 135 to 404) and Switzerland (up 29 to 115). The 'new wave' recoveries have yet to get started really so hopefully we see some over the weekend. Germany are yet to see a death at least which is some good news. The UK grew by 30 and as we know sadly had its first death. Bosnia (2) was our only new country.

In Latin America, we saw some more gradual increases. Argentina was up 1 (2), Chile up 3 (4) and Ecuador up 3 (13). Brazil remained on 4. Heading north, Costa Rica (1) got its first case but no changes in Dominican Republic (1), St Barthelemy (3) and Mexico (4).

The USA saw another spike and it looks like it will struggle with the outbreak. It is expected that there are a lot of undiagnosed cases. Cases up 73 (213). Canada saw a jump of 12 to 40 as well.

In the rest of the world, we actually saw a decrease in Australia of 2 (37). New Zealand continues to grow by 1 a day (4) and India grew by 2 (27) and Russia by 1 (2). No change in Pakistan (5), Nepal (0) and Sri Lanka (0).

Again, there won't be any posts over the weekend. Our best hope this weekend is that the 'new wave' of infections in Europe starts to see some recoveries and that Asia and the Middle East continues to fight off further increases. The USA is one to keep an eye on as it may really struggle based on early evidence.

Also worth keeping an eye on countries in Europe with many cases and seeing their death rates as hopefully they begin to fall.

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What are the chances of hearing anything more before ticket fees are due in few weeks time? I'm guessing a lot of people are gonna back out and not pay, fearing the worst, especially people travelling from abroad. Personally I cant see any festivals happening this summer, I hope I'm wrong obviously.

Edited by Euphoricape
Typo

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9 minutes ago, northernringo said:

The USA saw another spike and it looks like it will struggle with the outbreak

Understatement of the year. 

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