Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[Ayrshire Chris]

12 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Not necessarily, it helps to highlight how dangerous the virus actually is in the grand scheme of things. The mortality rate is still only 15% above 80 anyway, but the mortality rate for anything when you’re above 80 is gong to be pretty high regardless. As a human being you’ve only get a 30% chance of reaching 90, so there is a good chance something will kill you before then, whatever it is.

Very true

But You really know how to cheer up the older festers! 😉😁

[BambooShanks]

12 minutes ago, Havors said:

I think I should change my vote on the other thread.... the more I read and the more I see the media scaremongering the more I think everything this summer is going to be cancelled....  Sorry, I dont mean to be Mr Doom and gloom....

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-peak-cases-could-be-cut-by-social-distancing-11950397?fbclid=IwAR0EgVB1lkZXcBj8g763niSBcI6uoz9HWODVoF-VWGKwXxRnAkOz6_vr15w

You said it right there, it's scaremongering.  We may(and hopefully will) see some social distancing but I can't see it going past early June.

 

 

 

As @guypjfreak linked in his post, the london marathon is still going ahead at this point and that attracts 40,000 runners alone.

[squirrelarmy]

Back on Pope watch, someone within the Vatican has been confirmed to have the virus. This means 0.1% of that country are now infected. 

[whitehorses]

If lots of bands cancel then Chris and Fatboy are gonna be helluva busy 

[Havors]

1 minute ago, Kinkyinuit said:

You said it right there, it's scaremongering.  We may(and hopefully will) see some social distancing but I can't see it going past early June.

 

 

 

As @guypjfreak linked in his post, the london marathon is still going ahead at this point and that attracts 40,000 runners alone.

Still going ahead at this point means nothing. The ramp up of plans will happen rapidly depending on the numbers and areas infected. Like they will just cancel it a couple of days before if need be if the outbreak gets stronger. 

And as we see in the link i posted... social distancing is not just gonna be done and all back to normal in just a few weeks.  I am more leaning towards a bad outcome for festivals than not at the moment....

This it depends how the next couple of weeks unfold.

[grumpyhack]

One problem at all festivals could be wristbanding.  A great way to spread nasties.

[northernringo]

Today's update:

Overall not a very good day, particularly in Europe but it was expected.

In China, cases continued to drop and there was a reduction of 1,460. Not as steep a reduction as previous days but this tail off is expected. Total cases now at 23,755. Some good news on the Diamond Cruise Ship too, case numbers down by 40 as recoveries look like they are starting to come through. In the rest of East Asia, there were no real disasters but also not much good news. More gradual increases than previously and one new country as well Bhutan (1). Singapore grew by 7 (39), Thailand by 1 (16), Japan by 29 (no new recoveries), Philippines by 2 (3, their first increase in quite some time), Taiwan by 2 (31). Indonesia (2), Macau (1), Vietnam (0), Cambodia (0) and Malaysia (28) remained the same. Hong Kong went down by 3 (57).

South Korea saw another large increase but also a good spike in the number of recoveries. It is important this continue over the weekend. Total cases up by 406 to 6,418.

In the Middle East, things weren't too bad. One new country in Palestine (4) but the rest (excluding Iran) seem to be containing it to some extent with just gradual increases. UAE grew 1 (24), Oman 1 (14), Saudi Arabia 3 (5), Lebanon 3 (15), Bahrain 3 (55) and Kuwait 2 (58). No changes for Afghanistan (0), Israel (14), Iraq (33) and Qatar (8). Iran grew by 389 to 2,667 in total.

In Africa, we had one new country in South Africa (1). Senegal, Nigeria and Tunisia saw no increases but Egypt grew by 1 (2) as did Morocco (2) and Algeria increased by 5 to 17.

Europe was a bit of an expected disaster yesterday as we saw large spikes throughout various countries. I'll start with the one bit of good news and that is Denmark actually went down by 1 (9) but no other European country saw a reduction. Large spikes were seen in Netherlands (up 44 to 82), Norway (up 35 to 91), Sweden (up 59 to 94), Germany (up 283 to 529), Spain (up 59 to 277), France (up 135 to 404) and Switzerland (up 29 to 115). The 'new wave' recoveries have yet to get started really so hopefully we see some over the weekend. Germany are yet to see a death at least which is some good news. The UK grew by 30 and as we know sadly had its first death. Bosnia (2) was our only new country.

In Latin America, we saw some more gradual increases. Argentina was up 1 (2), Chile up 3 (4) and Ecuador up 3 (13). Brazil remained on 4. Heading north, Costa Rica (1) got its first case but no changes in Dominican Republic (1), St Barthelemy (3) and Mexico (4).

The USA saw another spike and it looks like it will struggle with the outbreak. It is expected that there are a lot of undiagnosed cases. Cases up 73 (213). Canada saw a jump of 12 to 40 as well.

In the rest of the world, we actually saw a decrease in Australia of 2 (37). New Zealand continues to grow by 1 a day (4) and India grew by 2 (27) and Russia by 1 (2). No change in Pakistan (5), Nepal (0) and Sri Lanka (0).

Again, there won't be any posts over the weekend. Our best hope this weekend is that the 'new wave' of infections in Europe starts to see some recoveries and that Asia and the Middle East continues to fight off further increases. The USA is one to keep an eye on as it may really struggle based on early evidence.

Also worth keeping an eye on countries in Europe with many cases and seeing their death rates as hopefully they begin to fall.

[Euphoricape]

What are the chances of hearing anything more before ticket fees are due in few weeks time? I'm guessing a lot of people are gonna back out and not pay, fearing the worst, especially people travelling from abroad. Personally I cant see any festivals happening this summer, I hope I'm wrong obviously.

Edited March 6, 2020 by Euphoricape
Typo

[squirrelarmy]

9 minutes ago, northernringo said:

The USA saw another spike and it looks like it will struggle with the outbreak

Understatement of the year. 

[whitehorses]

Upvoted the OP for kicking off the most terrible rollercoaster of all 

[Euphoricape]

This is nearly as stressful as last years weather thread.

[BambooShanks]

10 minutes ago, Havors said:

And as we see in the link i posted... social distancing is not just gonna be done and all back to normal in just a few weeks.  I am more leaning towards a bad outcome for festivals than not at the moment....

Extending social distancing far into the summer only delays the peak towards the winter flu season. Looking at the model for moderate social distancing (which should end a few weeks before glastonbury) offers the best balance of delay and limits the economic impact.

Combining that with the Chief Medical Officer's models that we should see 95% of cases appear in the first 9 weeks then drop off, I'm more inclined to be on the side that by early May we should be through the worst of it.

That said, I do think it will effect smaller festivals that are earlier in the season and haven't sold out yet regardless of what happens. 

 

On the other hand, the USA concerns me mainly because of the lack of availability of testing kits and general issues with healthcare/sickness pay could result in a continued outbreak there so I would imagine a lot of festival organisers will be watching the situation with Coachella (and the aftermath) very closely. 

 

Overall I'm more optimistic that everything will be fine in the end.  Of course I'm expecting things to get worse before they get better but even by the end of the month we should be seeing a decrease in new cases and an increase in recoveries

 

 

[gigpusher]

10 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

This is nearly as stressful as last years weather thread.

That was a real rollercoaster of emotions and look how well that turned out!!

[parsonjack]

I think some of the panic will subside once we start to get first hand reports from folks who have had it and recovered. 

[topmarksbri]

8 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

I think some of the panic will subside once we start to get first hand reports from folks who have had it and recovered. 

There's a guy on youtube doing vlogs who's tested positive for it but seems to be getting on ok - he is a bit of a little englander. 

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

There's a guy on youtube doing vlogs who's tested positive for it but seems to be getting on ok - he is a bit of a little englander. 

Is that the guy who initially refused to be treated by foreigners?

[C14S]

19 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

I think some of the panic will subside once we start to get first hand reports from folks who have had it and recovered. 

Should be me soon 15 from my 6th form are off 2 weeks after coming back from italy + a teacher

[Spindles]

40 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Understatement of the year. 

Honestly as sad as it is, there is an amount of schadenfreude for me that Trump's inadequacy is going to be laid bare with this.  Angry old man shouting at clouds tweets aren't going to fix this.

[lukethekid]

3 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

No

Good

[chazwwe]

1 minute ago, Spindles said:

Honestly as sad as it is, there is an amount of schadenfreude for me that Trump's inadequacy is going to be laid bare with this.  Angry old man shouting at clouds tweets aren't going to fix this.

Nothing will happen. He'll get reelected 

[Ayrshire Chris]

1 minute ago, C14S said:

Should be me soon 15 from my 6th form are off 2 weeks after coming back from italy + a teacher

60 pupils and 6 staff from the school I just retired from returned from north Italy ski trip a few weeks ago. No sign of flu but 40 kids and 3 staff were infected with norovirus and hardly  got on the ski slopes! not a pleasant experience! 

[parsonjack]

5 minutes ago, C14S said:

Should be me soon 15 from my 6th form are off 2 weeks after coming back from italy + a teacher

Ooerr.  Hope you don't come down with it.  Keep us posted.

[Havors]

32 minutes ago, Kinkyinuit said:

Extending social distancing far into the summer only delays the peak towards the winter flu season. Looking at the model for moderate social distancing (which should end a few weeks before glastonbury) offers the best balance of delay and limits the economic impact.

Combining that with the Chief Medical Officer's models that we should see 95% of cases appear in the first 9 weeks then drop off, I'm more inclined to be on the side that by early May we should be through the worst of it.

That said, I do think it will effect smaller festivals that are earlier in the season and haven't sold out yet regardless of what happens. 

 

On the other hand, the USA concerns me mainly because of the lack of availability of testing kits and general issues with healthcare/sickness pay could result in a continued outbreak there so I would imagine a lot of festival organisers will be watching the situation with Coachella (and the aftermath) very closely. 

 

Overall I'm more optimistic that everything will be fine in the end.  Of course I'm expecting things to get worse before they get better but even by the end of the month we should be seeing a decrease in new cases and an increase in recoveries

 

 

Yes... and I would say moderate social distancing which only "starts" to be relaxed in June means they arent going to completely stop it and let major events with 300k people go ahead.

So my fear is although we will likely have the peak before glasto and see the drop off it still will mean measures are in place right through the summer slowly being relaxed... and big events wont be going ahead.  

Trust me I hope I am completely and utterly wrong. I think what we need is a strong social distancing quickly and get the peak out the way as early as possible then hope for the best.... OR delay it considerably so the peak hits in the autumn. Those are our 2 best hopes. 

[maelzoid]

5 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Honestly as sad as it is, there is an amount of schadenfreude for me that Trump's inadequacy is going to be laid bare with this.  Angry old man shouting at clouds tweets aren't going to fix this.

I agree. I am hoping that the first serious crisis that Trump will have to face will reveal his inadequacy in full and that despite all the campaigning and rampant criminality, it will be a virus that undoes his presidency.

You can gaslight a nation - you cannot gaslight a virus.

[whitehorses]

How long in advance of Glasto should we self isolate to make sure we don’t get it for the big day? 🙃