Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[bombfrog]

1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

I never mentioned South Korea though I was talking about China being an unreliable metric to base anything off, and Italy should be a more accurate view of what this disease is really like.

Yes, but it was pointed out to you that South Korea has also reported much lower fatality rates and that they're probaby a lot more trustworthy, which rather nullifies your point.

[nicnzl]

Fuck me, the stupid has come out in this thread. I regret coming back. 

[manifest]

I found a scientific study into the impact of large events on influenza pandemics. It's quite limited and it's not specifically about Covid but it's still slightly more informative than blind speculation:

'Some evidence suggests that restricting mass gatherings together with other social distancing measures may help to reduce transmission. However, the evidence is still not strong enough to warrant advocating legislated restrictions. Therefore, in a pandemic situation a cautious policy of voluntary avoidance of mass gatherings is still the most prudent message. Operational considerations including practical implications of policy directed at restricting mass gathering events should be carefully considered.'

'The new evidence does not alter the message that, in all but the most severe pandemics, compulsory restrictions offer little advantage given the delicate economic and political balance associated with mass gathering restrictions, and the continued limited evidence to suggest mass gathering events are widely associated with influenza transmission'.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/316200/Mass_Gatherings_evidence_Review.pdf

[Reckoner]

Thanks to all the posters who attempted to keep this thread sane overnight (For me at least)

 

 

[beefykoala]

Coachella postponed

[Friendly Banter]

Looks like Coachella made the call within the last 48 hours or so.  Going to be postponed until October.  

[beefykoala]

I'm going to need some serious fucking therapy if Glasto gets cancelled/postponed. I kept saying "I'll worry if Coachella gets hit". Well, now I'm worried.

[Friendly Banter]

Im honestly pretty confident that Glastonbury will be on the safe side of the quarantines that inevitably will happen over the next couple months.   

The NBA will play games without fans in arenas soon. Today they limited locker room to restricted personnel.  I work for the league and we are having a huge call tomorrow and talk Wednesday about procedures going forward.   

And not to stir up the pot any more than it needs to be, but I had a conversation with a high ranking US General and they estimate that China had 10s of millions infected before anything was ever reported. He said some internal data had it estimating as high as 50 million infected at the beginning of February. 

[Suprefan]

only festival in the world that could pull it off too. Glasto doesnt have this kind of pull or money to attempt it.  Hotel prices already spiked with the date leak.

https://www.billboard.com/articles/business/touring/9330145/coachella-stagecoach-move-festivals-october

Edited March 10, 2020 by Suprefan

[Reckoner]

Professor Whitty will save us.

[Wooderson]

4 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

South Korea have the most accurate numbers, they have a large sample size and have tested extensively. It's as simple as that really. Italy haven't tested enough to give a reliable estimate of their actual infection numbers. The outbreak is still evolving globally, so it's hard to predict exactly where we will finally land, but most expert predictions are for around 1-2% of cases to be fatal and I haven't seen anything to suggest otherwise. For those saying that it is mainly killing people who would otherwise die from flu, not really. We vaccinate at risk populations for flu (and it saves countless lives annually), but can't for this (and repeated yearly vaccination also contributes to an underlying immunity to flu in older populations). Try not to panic, take it easy for the next few weeks...

Charging a tenner a bottle for you in Londis chief.

[Reckoner]

Before this thread goes completely off the rails after the Coachella news;

At this stage, This seems to be a Coachella led decision due to fear that the Riverside Council would pull their permits the way the City of Austin did to South by Southwest. They are looking to postpone to try and salvage the event.  Medical Opinion in Riverside County seems to be getting influenced by Dr David Agus, a Cancer specialist who owns a genomics company,  Author and CBS news contributor. All this taking place in country with a poor and fractured response between the various levels of government to the outbreak.

The UK have a nonpartisan, independent expert epidemiologist advising. As long as the strategy between The UK government, Mendip council and  GFL stays consistent, and the communication to the public remains the same, this isn’t a death knell. It feels like a massive kick in the nuts right now, but it probably doesn’t have any real relevance apart from the avalanche of “will Glastonbury go ahead stories?” that we’ll face over the next week.

[Calvin Klein]

36 minutes ago, Friendly Banter said:

Im honestly pretty confident that Glastonbury will be on the safe side of the quarantines that inevitably will happen over the next couple months.   

The NBA will play games without fans in arenas soon. Today they limited locker room to restricted personnel.  I work for the league and we are having a huge call tomorrow and talk Wednesday about procedures going forward.   

And not to stir up the pot any more than it needs to be, but I had a conversation with a high ranking US General and they estimate that China had 10s of millions infected before anything was ever reported. He said some internal data had it estimating as high as 50 million infected at the beginning of February. 

let's hope so. This is starting to stress me out. 

May I ask what your job is in the league? 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Calvin Klein

[dmedxb]

I was definitely on the 'Glasto won't be cancelled' side of this debate but the Coachella postponement and the Italy lockdown have very much spooked me today. First day I've felt genuinely, truly concerned about Covid19 and what that means for Glasto 2020. 

[Friendly Banter]

1 hour ago, Calvin Klein said:

let's hope so. This is starting to stress me out. 

May I ask what your job is in the league? 

I work with players/teams for community outreach and visibility. Basically if you see a player/team showing up somewhere that is not basketball related, Ive likely had a direct part in organizing and connecting those branches. I used to work at a prominent sports agency  so thats how I got the gig.

[dmedxb]

2 minutes ago, Friendly Banter said:

I work with players/teams for community outreach and visibility. Basically if you see a player/team showing up somewhere that is not basketball related, Ive likely had a direct part in organizing and connecting those branches. I used to work at a prominent sports agency  so thats how I got the gig.

Without wanting to go off topic, that is a seriously cool job (long suffering Nets fan here!). 

What do you make of LBJ saying he'll refuse to play if there's no fans in arenas? 

[Andy0808 v5]

Coachella is next month, and as posted extensively; is in a country with a healthcare system that’ll quite happily turn its back on those more vulnerable without insurance. At this moment in time, the UK has a worse problem with than the USA when you go by percentage of the population infected; yet we’ve got 250,000 people expected to go and cheer at horses in close proximity of one another the next few days. 
 

Emily and Michael have made such a show of the fiftieth that it’s only getting cancelled if they absolutely have to.

 

Are the people spreading this negativity about it definitely being on the brink of cancellation, the same people who suggested the 50th would be the final ever festival? Can we please steer away from talking like the Daily Mail and not spread panic constantly. Anyway, back to the next announcement thread..
 

[waynewdk]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8093573/Here-10-morale-boosting-reasons-Britain-shouldnt-plunge-coronavirus-despair.html

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, waynewdk said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8093573/Here-10-morale-boosting-reasons-Britain-shouldnt-plunge-coronavirus-despair.html

Are you posting the daily fail link ironically? I’m still not clicking it though 😂

[waynewdk]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Are you posting the daily fail link ironically? I’m still not clicking it though 😂

Ha yeah, just a ittle bit of a positive read, not much though 😂

Edited March 10, 2020 by waynewdk

[Andy0808 v5]

11 minutes ago, waynewdk said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8093573/Here-10-morale-boosting-reasons-Britain-shouldnt-plunge-coronavirus-despair.html

Well, shit. A journalist going against the agenda (sort of) 👏🏻

[squirrelarmy]

Anyway the panic is over and nothing to worry about anymore. There’s a couple in the USA suing the cruise line company for negligence. 
 

That will stop the pesky virus in its tracks!

Edited March 10, 2020 by squirrelarmy

[squirrelarmy]

Just now, Andy0808 v5 said:

Well, shit. A journalist going against the agenda (sort of) 👏🏻

Can you do a copy paste job for those of us who don’t want their devices infected by that trash?

[Andy0808 v5]

@squirrelarmy - phone won’t allow me to quote and paste for some reason.
1 

In China, where the disease originated, the epidemic seems to be in steep decline.

At the peak of the crisis, four weeks ago, new infections were running at more than 3,000 a day. 

However, on Sunday, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO), just 46 new cases were confirmed — not far from the 43 cases in Britain.

If the disease follows the same trend here, where the epidemic is running several weeks behind China, the panic could soon be over.
 

2

Globally, too, the number of new infections flattened at the weekend — with 3,735 new cases reported on Saturday, falling to 3,656 on Sunday, according to the WHO.

This may, of course, turn out to be just a blip — a similarly modest fall was recorded the previous Sunday, so it might simply be down to fewer tests being performed at the weekend. If the fall is sustained, on the other hand, it could be a sign that the epidemic has peaked.

Less good news is that new infections in Italy — the worst-affected European country — leapt from 778 on Saturday to 1,247 on Sunday.

3

We are approaching spring, when most viral infections tend to decline. 

According to the Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty, there 'may be a seasonal element' to the coronavirus, just as there is to seasonal flu, which means transmission could well slow down over the coming weeks.

Experiments have shown a dramatic fall in the length of time that a virus is able to survive outside the human body as the temperature rises. 

The flu season, for example, tends to be over by April.
 

4

We have had frequent scares about novel infectious diseases in recent years, and none of them has developed into a pandemic. Sars, which emerged in 2002, killed 774 people.

In 2005, the WHO predicted that the H5N1 strain of avian flu could kill up to 50 million people worldwide, while Dr Dena Grayson, who helped develop the drugs to treat the deadly Ebola virus, has warned that with Covid-19, we could see a 'second wave' of cases 'similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic'.

In the event, H5N1 has killed 455 people. Covid-19 has already killed more than this — 3,584 up until the end of Sunday — but it is still a long way short of a pandemic.

5

Even if you are in close contact with someone who has — or who is incubating — the disease, there is still a good chance that you won't catch it.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock last week said the Government was working on a worst-case scenario that up to 80 per cent of the UK population might catch the virus.

However, in Hubei province, China — where the disease originated — only 20 per cent of the population is reported to have caught the disease.

And a study by the Shenzhen Centre for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that only 7.9 per cent of adults who have been in close family contact with someone who has the disease will go on to catch it themselves.

6

Kids are even better off. For children under ten, the Chinese study found the infection rate to be slightly less — just 7.4 per cent. This is in spite of children having generally poorer personal hygiene than adults.

Moreover, children were less likely to develop symptoms even if they were infected — suggesting that they have some degree of natural protection from the disease.

This is in contrast to many viruses which have a habit of spreading quicker in schools than in other environments due to children's less developed immune systems.

7

The number of deaths globally is still tiny compared with the amount of people who annually succumb to seasonal flu. 

According to the U.S. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the annual global death toll from seasonal flu is between 291,000 and 646,000.

Up until Sunday, by contrast, there had been 3,584 deaths worldwide from Covid-19. 
 

We don't notice this death toll from seasonal flu because many of the victims were already suffering from other medical conditions, and were liable to die at any time.

The same is true of the coronavirus, where Chinese figures suggest that the death rate from Covid-19 rises tenfold in people suffering from cardiovascular diseases. 

This means that the majority of healthy people can expect to survive even if they catch the disease.

8

The claim that Covid-19 kills 3.4 per cent of those it infects is almost certainly a huge over-estimate. 

The figure came from the WHO last week, but — as the organisation was keen to stress — it had arrived at the number simply by dividing the number of reported deaths by the number of reported cases.

This does not give a true figure for the mortality rate, because many mild cases of the virus, especially in the early stages of the outbreak, will have gone unrecorded.

Zhejiang province, which has a population of 54 million (not much less than that of the UK), last week reported that it had recorded a grand total of 1,215 cases in the past three months with just one fatality.

According to Professor Chris Whitty, the UK death rate is likely to be 1 per cent at most, and probably rather less.

9

As Covid-19 evolves it should become less virulent. The tendency of viruses to become less deadly — at least in the early years of a novel disease — was identified in experiments with the myxoma virus in rabbits in Australia in the Fifties.

The virus was developed with the intention of controlling the rabbit population, and initially it killed almost every rabbit it infected within two weeks. 

However, within months the virus had evolved to kill between 50 per cent and 95 per cent of the rabbits it infected. There is a good evolutionary reason for this; it is not in the interests of a pathogen to kill its host animal.

The most successful virus is one which spreads very easily but whose effect on the human body is hardly noticed. However, we will have to be eternally vigilant as the virus could mutate into a more deadly form

10

The FTSE 100 plunged nearly 8 per cent yesterday and share prices tumbled so fast on the New York Stock Exchange that they triggered a 'kill switch' that stops trading for a 15-minute cooling-off period.

However, the good news is that while previous disease scares have caused big falls in stock markets, they haven't led to recessions (two successive quarters of negative growth).

The Hong Kong flu pandemic in 1968-69 killed 1 million people. The Dow Jones index of U.S. shares slumped by 21 per cent at one point. But it didn't lead to a recession.

Edited March 10, 2020 by Andy0808 v5

[Ozanne]

1 hour ago, Andy0808 v5 said:

Coachella is next month, and as posted extensively; is in a country with a healthcare system that’ll quite happily turn its back on those more vulnerable without insurance. At this moment in time, the UK has a worse problem with than the USA when you go by percentage of the population infected; yet we’ve got 250,000 people expected to go and cheer at horses in close proximity of one another the next few days. 
 

Emily and Michael have made such a show of the fiftieth that it’s only getting cancelled if they absolutely have to.

 

Are the people spreading this negativity about it definitely being on the brink of cancellation, the same people who suggested the 50th would be the final ever festival? Can we please steer away from talking like the Daily Mail and not spread panic constantly. Anyway, back to the next announcement thread..
 

Good post! Coachella is next month so a call had to be made and one that sounds like was made due to other factors at play too. This will have no bearing on Glastonbury!