Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[Crazyfool01]

35 minutes ago, Gilgamesh69 said:

Yeah, a lot of it is mental. Been struggling with depression for a long time but it's been getting worse this year. Like dangerously bad, I'm getting worried that I can't cope with it much longer. Might need to start taking something for it.  But some of it is definitely physical; no idea what the fuck is up with my lungs and coughing etc. Had an x-ray last year but they didn't find anything. 

 

I talked to my flatmate earlier; he said he's been trying to get a doctor's appointment for the past two weeks but hasn't been able to. Seems everywhere is being swamped because of this Coronavirus

cant add too much to the posts above ... there are many people above more qualified than me ... but please make use of them ... or dm me ... ive a good ear despite the username .... all the best .. keep talking and we / they will help you through it . Alex 

[Dusk1983]

9 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

It really feels the same. At 6music festival today and feels very normal.

That doesn’t make it safe. In fact probably the opposite.

[semmtexx]

1 hour ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

The Sun. not at all informative but very absorbent . On the whole a nasty  vile newspaper, on the hole quite useful! 

Hahaha! 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, Dusk1983 said:

That doesn’t make it safe. In fact probably the opposite.

Have a day off 

[Dusk1983]

Just now, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Have a day off 

Don’t shoot me for trying to keep you guys safe.

[dotdash79]

1 minute ago, Dusk1983 said:

Don’t shoot me for trying to keep you guys safe.

But you're not.

Whilst it's not all going to be fine, it's not the end of days have a bit of perceptive.

[semmtexx]

Trying to inject some realism here.

Overall - stairs (yes those things we encounter everyday) are (potentially) more dangerous than some of the predictions of coronavirus.

If you don't believe me have a look at the stats. 

Modified thanks to @stuartbert two hats

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by semmtexx

[Brownie30]

4 minutes ago, Dusk1983 said:

Don’t shoot me for trying to keep you guys safe.

The panic-ridden narrative you seem to love is exactly why people are going mental and stripping stores of dried pasta and loo roll. It doesn't keep people safe, it whips them up into a frenzy. 

[stuartbert two hats]

37 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

UK data for the last few years. 
 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf

More data is always good, but that's a different disease in a different country, so I'm not entirely sure how to get a handle on whether 133 in a day is a lot.

Having said that, Italy has a similar population to the UK (60 Vs 66) and my calculations make flu having roughly 72 deaths per day for 2017/18. Now, it's not quite an equivalent comparison, since flu isn't killing people all year long, and on the other hand, there's no reason to believe that coronavirus has peaked in Italy yet.  Nevertheless, if we compare 133 to 72, it would seem that yes - it seems a little high. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, semmtexx said:

Trying to inject some realism here.

Overall - stairs (yes those things we encounter everyday) are more dangerous than the worst predictions of coronavirus.

If you don't believe me have a look at the stats. 

I'd like to see those stats. I've done a quick Google and whilst stairs are more deadly than one might imagine, flu and coronavirus do appear to be worse:

1000 deaths from stairs

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/790609.stm

100,000 deaths from coronavirus

https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2020/03/08/coronavirus-kill-100000-brits-uk-prepares-worst-case-scenario-12365865/amp/

I can't see a timescale for the virus deaths, although I can't imagine they're talking about a 100 year span.

 

A very old BBC article and Metro article are not the most impeccable of sources - what numbers did you have in mind?

Edited March 8, 2020 by stuartbert two hats
Seats -> deaths

[Ozanne]

13 minutes ago, Dusk1983 said:

Don’t shoot me for trying to keep you guys safe.

Hardly. All you are doing is stirring up panic on here, something you seem to be enjoying. 

[semmtexx]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'd like to see those stats. I've done a quick Google and whilst stairs are more deadly than one might imagine, flu and coronavirus do appear to be worse:

1000 deaths from stairs

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/790609.stm

100,000 seats from coronavirus

https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2020/03/08/coronavirus-kill-100000-brits-uk-prepares-worst-case-scenario-12365865/amp/

I can't see a timescale for the virus deaths, although I can't imagine they're talking about a 100 year span.

 

A very old BBC article and Metro article are not the most impeccable of sources - what numbers did you have in mind?

Extra deaths over normal respiratory illness. 

[semmtexx]

Respiratory illness kills about 70 or so thousand each year. OK so my figures not quite exact (and you might convince me to retract the happy statement!!) but similarish order of magnitude. 

Edited March 8, 2020 by semmtexx

[semmtexx]

And the point is coronavirus is likely (?) to take out a lot of these already vulnerable people, rather than a completely new cohort. 

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

3 hours ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

I've purposely stayed out of this thread to protect my peace but I thought I'd share an observation after a weekend spent in London. I've used various forms of transport and moved freely across the breadth of the city and one thing that was noticeable is the lack of people wearing "protective" masks. I spotted maybe a dozen over the course of 48 hours. People seem to be just getting on with life regardless. They maybe taking a few more precautions but certainly nothing obvious.

I'm not trivialising a clearly very serious situation but some, if not most areas of the media would have us think we're on the brink of the collapse of civilisation as we know it. I'm not entirely sure what my point is but once this situation has resolved itself, the same organisations where the majority of the country sources it's "information" will probably be warning of a critical water shortage due to everyone needing to wash their hands for twenty seconds every time during the Coronavirus crisis. In times like this I'm quick to remind myself that fear, bad news, negativity and pessimism sells newspapers and fuels 24 hour news channel viewing figures. Just look at the political state of the world over the past decade to reinforce that point.

Right now, the festival is going ahead and although I've got zero scientific basis to back any hope up, I still firmly believe it will. Seems to me the only real threat to it is the fear being created by those with a certain agenda.

If anyone needs me, I'll be in the electronica thread planning which of the many micro venues I'll be in at 4am on the Saturday morning of the festival. 

In addition guys, don't feed the trolls who are only on here to take advantage of the passion you have for something obviously really important to you. Right now, you're easy targets and they know it. We'll see what happens. They may end up being correct but it'll be more by luck than knowledge or judgment. Rise above it, keep the faith and wash your hands thoroughly for 20 seconds.

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, semmtexx said:

And the point is coronavirus is likely (?) to take out a lot of these already vulnerable people, rather than a completely new cohort. 

That is a very good point, which I'd not considered... So would we expect to see a reduction in the flu deaths this year then, as coronavirus is killing some that would have died to flu anyway?

I've seen your update and hope that we do indeed end up with a similar order of magnitude to stair deaths. Not that I hope for people to die, but you know what I mean

[Ayrshire Chris]

1 minute ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

In addition guys, don't feed the trolls who are only on here to take advantage of the passion you have for something obviously really important to you. Right now, you're easy targets and they know it. We'll see what happens. They may end up being correct but it'll be more by luck than knowledge or judgment. Rise above it, keep the faith and wash your hands thoroughly for 20 seconds.

Spot on, think some need to calm down. Of course we are naturally anxious but as it stands nothing has changed. 

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

That is a very good point, which I'd not considered... So would we expect to see a reduction in the flu deaths this year then, as coronavirus is killing some that would have died to flu anyway?

I've seen your update and hope that we do indeed end up with a similar order of magnitude to stair deaths. Not that I hope for people to die, but you know what I mean

 

I was about to make the same point. Those at risk people are in more danger because there’s an extra strain of flu to contend with but it’s not an additional 25,000 people at risk for the next 4 years. 

[semmtexx]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

[snip] reduction in the flu deaths this year then, as coronavirus is killing some that would have died to flu anyway?

I'd imagine so but I've not seen any data about this. I suspect we'll not know for a while but it would seem like a fair assumption. 

Edited March 8, 2020 by semmtexx

[Earth_pig]

34 minutes ago, Dusk1983 said:

That doesn’t make it safe. In fact probably the opposite.

There is now news people have got sick from attending 6music festival, are you trying to worry the poster that he might have got sick? That's nasty, no help people making claims like this.

[Homer]

23 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

More data is always good, but that's a different disease in a different country, so I'm not entirely sure how to get a handle on whether 133 in a day is a lot.

Having said that, Italy has a similar population to the UK (60 Vs 66) and my calculations make flu having roughly 72 deaths per day for 2017/18. Now, it's not quite an equivalent comparison, since flu isn't killing people all year long, and on the other hand, there's no reason to believe that coronavirus has peaked in Italy yet.  Nevertheless, if we compare 133 to 72, it would seem that yes - it seems a little high. 

It’s also the fact that the total has gone from 530 to 660 in a day.

[Homer]

1 minute ago, Earth_pig said:

There is now news people have got sick from attending 6music festival, are you trying to worry the poster that he might have got sick? That's nasty, no help people making claims like this.

You got a source for that? ‘They’’re probably just hungover  

[stuartbert two hats]

6 minutes ago, Homer said:

It’s also the fact that the total has gone from 530 to 660 in a day.

Quite. That certainly doesn't suggest the daily deaths have peaked does it?

[jimmillen]

3 minutes ago, Homer said:

You got a source for that? ‘They’’re probably just hungover  

Reading in context, I think @Earth_pig meant “no” news rather than “now” - it’s a slip of the typing fingers I make myself quite often. 

If I’m mistaken, then yes, source please!

[jparx]

I was reading the BBC piece about the TOOL show and someone coming down with the virus.

Made me think of all the other concerts and sporting events that have since happened and there don't seem to be news reports of people getting sick after attending other specific events. The TOOL show appears to be an outlier.