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Corona Virus - Should we be worried?


Jimbojam

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Just a quick remark: Nobody knows the fatality rate yet. There are a lot of people without symptoms or light symptoms that won‘t be tested and are not part of the statistics.

The fatality rate might be A LOT lower. The severity of the virus is not yet assessible.

Imagine there‘d be news over the ticker for every tested patient during the seasonal flu.

Edited by Karlos12345
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39 minutes ago, Havors said:

Yeah im not worried about the Virus itself, we will control it and it will be sorted out without much issue. The thing myself and I presume others are worried about is the cancellation of everything while it is being controlled.  

 

Yeah that's my biggest worry too. Glasto wasn't cancelled in 2009 despite the outbreak occurring in early June (1,000 cases). As I mentioned, media sensationalism/scaremongering will be the issue. I'm surprised the Sun/Daily Mail haven't published one already 'EURO's and Glastonbury in doubt....' 

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9 minutes ago, CraigMichaelRoach said:

Yeah that's my biggest worry too. Glasto wasn't cancelled in 2009 despite the outbreak occurring in early June (1,000 cases). As I mentioned, media sensationalism/scaremongering will be the issue. I'm surprised the Sun/Daily Mail haven't published one already 'EURO's and Glastonbury in doubt....' 

We have the complete waste of sperm Matt Hancock as our Health Minister now though.... 

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1 hour ago, CraigMichaelRoach said:

Did Swine Flu promote this much hysteria in 2009 when over 500,000 people (UK) were infected? I know the fatality rate is about 4x higher for Covid-19 but I swear the impact on the global economy, media ect. wasn't this severe...Has the development of social media/comms played a part? Or maybe because I was too young to take notice.....

The Olympics Committee have given themselves 3 months to make a decision. IMO a statement won't be made by Glastonbury until balance payment week. I don't really see the need for any correspondence in the meantime given how quickly outbreaks appear to be developing (case of Italy). Things change quickly. China appears to have contained their situation and I'm hoping Italy will do the same.

To ease my mind I try to look at the numbers in proportion. If the UK and Italy get 10,000 cases each...it's still only 0.015% of our populations.  Given the awareness of the virus (something that China & arguably SK, HK & Singapore didn't have) we should be able to prevent it reaching this kind of number. Again, viruses don't like heat, let's hope for a Summer like 18.

I'm positive - Glasto 2020 will happen as planned.

As second posts on the forum go this will take some beating. Outstanding positivity, good work! 

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common flu will kill more people in the UK than Covid-19 and yet people still choose to not get the flu vaccine, statistically you will be more likely to be get seriously injured or killed on the drive to Glastonbury than catch and die from Covid.

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1 hour ago, Quark said:

A bit of both.  Said before that I'm not concerned for myself as my health and immune system are pretty robust and, at least from what we appear to be seeing, it's those with underlying conditions or systems weakened by age or illness that are at risk.

But I'm pretty sure that everyone on here has got at least one person close to them (or themselves in some cases) that you wouldn't necessarily wager your mortgage on having no issues if they got it.

A lot of people’s Immune systems will take a right battering at Glasto, 

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I take a more pessimistic view.   I don't know whether the festival will be cancelled, but I do think it is entirely possible.

Covid-19 is evidently beyond the containment measures put in place.   This has been known for 3 weeks by expert virologists as likely to happen.   Expert's patience with the WHO has been eroded as they see the WHO as somewhat of a lackey to China.

There has been mis-reporting of the scale and virulence of Covid-19.   It's said that the death rate is akin to flu, but it's way more than that.   Annual morbidity rates for flu are 0.1%.   In Wuhan the rate is estimated to be 4.0% (although this can only be estimated because received data is problematic.   Rates for the elderly are perhaps at 14% so we can assume that if you're younger and in good health then you should be OK if you contract it.)

But in addition to the health concerns I think it's the economic hit that may push the Govt. to make a decision on movement of goods and people.   Chinese manufacturers are suffering with 6% of small mfrs. already expecting bankruptcy.   The supply chain of goods into Europe, UK and US is suffering.   There are container ships in the Pacific Rim that can't come into port there to load.   Western economies will suffer.   I know this subject is rather dry, but it does matter.

Italy has I think 230 cases with 7 deaths (3%) and the infection sites have spread from the Northern manufacturing belt down to Florence and Sicily.   50,000 residents are on lockdown and the Venice Carnival has been cancelled wth the huge Salone del Mobile exhibition in Milan in April reviewing it's position, along with sporting events such as the England v Italy rugby match in Rome.   To contain the situation the Govt. has renounced some civil liberites and put the army on standby. 

What happens in Italy will I think also happen in the rest of Europe and the UK.  

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3 minutes ago, Cornwall James said:

I take a more pessimistic view.   I don't know whether the festival will be cancelled, but I do think it is entirely possible.

Covid-19 is evidently beyond the containment measures put in place.   This has been known for 3 weeks by expert virologists as likely to happen.   Expert's patience with the WHO has been eroded as they see the WHO as somewhat of a lackey to China.

There has been mis-reporting of the scale and virulence of Covid-19.   It's said that the death rate is akin to flu, but it's way more than that.   Annual morbidity rates for flu are 0.1%.   In Wuhan the rate is estimated to be 4.0% (although this can only be estimated because received data is problematic.   Rates for the elderly are perhaps at 14% so we can assume that if you're younger and in good health then you should be OK if you contract it.)

But in addition to the health concerns I think it's the economic hit that may push the Govt. to make a decision on movement of goods and people.   Chinese manufacturers are suffering with 6% of small mfrs. already expecting bankruptcy.   The supply chain of goods into Europe, UK and US is suffering.   There are container ships in the Pacific Rim that can't come into port there to load.   Western economies will suffer.   I know this subject is rather dry, but it does matter.

Italy has I think 230 cases with 7 deaths (3%) and the infection sites have spread from the Northern manufacturing belt down to Florence and Sicily.   50,000 residents are on lockdown and the Venice Carnival has been cancelled wth the huge Salone del Mobile exhibition in Milan in April reviewing it's position, along with sporting events such as the England v Italy rugby match in Rome.   To contain the situation the Govt. has renounced some civil liberites and put the army on standby. 

What happens in Italy will I think also happen in the rest of Europe and the UK.  

Wuhan is also where the virus broke out. It took time for the city to react (as you would expect). It didn't have the army of health workers it does now and the newly built hospitals in the early stages. So quoting the death rate in Wuhan is somewhat misleading. 

Deciding to quote a death rate in one area can be used to support an argument either way. For example, in response to your Wuhan stats, one could quote the Zhejiang region mortality rate, which is pretty close to Hubei province. This region has had over 1,000 cases and a mortality rate of 0.08%.

 

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Wuhan is also where the virus broke out. It took time for the city to react (as you would expect). It didn't have the army of health workers it does now and the newly built hospitals in the early stages. So quoting the death rate in Wuhan is somewhat misleading. 

Deciding to quote a death rate in one area can be used to support an argument either way. For example, in response to your Wuhan stats, one could quote the Zhejiang region mortality rate, which is pretty close to Hubei province. This region has had over 1,000 cases and a mortality rate of 0.08%.

 

You're absolutely right.   Quoting rates & stats can always lead to accusations of pursuing a particular position, for the reasons you state.   But I don't think my prognosis is wrong - the morbidity rate is much higher than flu.   (And I believe Hubei Province is at over 2.5% with the rest of China at 0.8%).

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1 hour ago, Havors said:

Yep and as I said I'm not worried about us not controlling it so those people should be ok. The UK will be a lot more robust than Italy has been. 

I doubt that - once Italy started testing beyond China travellers they found loads. UK hasn't tested many and is where Italy was before this weekend. No tests, no confirmed cases. 

And does anyone honestly believe USA has no more cases than 2 weeks ago? 

Edited by efcfanwirral
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20 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Wuhan is also where the virus broke out. It took time for the city to react (as you would expect). It didn't have the army of health workers it does now and the newly built hospitals in the early stages. So quoting the death rate in Wuhan is somewhat misleading. 

Deciding to quote a death rate in one area can be used to support an argument either way. For example, in response to your Wuhan stats, one could quote the Zhejiang region mortality rate, which is pretty close to Hubei province. This region has had over 1,000 cases and a mortality rate of 0.08%.

 

Agreed...in Vietnam, there were 16 cases of Covid19 and all 16 have recovered....therefore a 0% fatality rate! 

On a serious note, it’s far too early to discuss the potency of this virus, especially given 98% of cases are in China where the virus originated (lack of preparation), is a country where air quality is notoriously bad and is a country with a high % (25%) of smokers. Given the virus attacks the respiratory system I’d expect the fatality rate to be a lot lower elsewhere. Italy may be an exception again due to smoking, ageing population and their love of the double-cheek kiss....

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