Corona Virus - Should we be worried?

[Madyaker]

Your government seems to have done a much better job than Italy’s here. They were too slow at tracking down people who had contact with the first known case. They still haven’t figured out how the virus got to Italy in the first place. 

[Crazyfool01]

I know a local band that would be happy to step up should there be travel bans implemented  

[FestivalJamie]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

I know a local band that would be happy to step up should there be travel bans implemented  

It comes to the point though, can we just ban travel in and out of the UK? Against freedom of movement etc. however flights from Italy to the UK are still running, which means it's just a matter of time now before an outbreak hits the UK. 

Or at least screening people on their way in and out of the UK needs to be done like they are doing in china... at this point there's no telling who is a carrier.

[northernringo]

28 minutes ago, Madyaker said:

Your government seems to have done a much better job than Italy’s here. They were too slow at tracking down people who had contact with the first known case. They still haven’t figured out how the virus got to Italy in the first place. 

Same with Iran.

Meanwhile some countries like India managed to stop the spread at 3 cases (so far) and the likes of the UK, Germany, Spain, have contained it pretty well. Even Cambodia has managed to only have one case which has since recovered).

[squirrelarmy]

The big danger will come if it gains a foothold in the USA. A large section of their population can’t afford medical care and infection rates could increase rapidly there. 

[kalifire]

In the past, Emily's said they do have contingency plans for unlikely, high-risk events like a global pandemic, nuclear war, etc.

The bad news is that both GFL and the UK government will be actively considering whether to cancel large public events (of which festivals are just one), and there will definitely be scenarios that exist in which Glastonbury is cancelled, whether voluntarily or not.

The good news is that there would be plenty that would be cancelled ahead of Glastonbury, so we'd have a pretty good early warning system, and I don't think the current situation makes it likely that this would happen.

Also, as I understand it, in the areas of the world which are being pro-active in containment measures, numbers are being managed or even coming down. The big trouble spots are the areas in the world with dense populations that have large numbers on the move in places with minimal to no containment and limited resources to cope. In other words, once again it's the poor that are fucked.

From a selfish perspective, my flight in June goes through Hong Kong. I'm only transiting, but I know an enforced quarantine of even transiting passengers in hot-spot areas would happen a lot earlier than Glastonbury being cancelled.

Edited February 24, 2020 by kalifire

[Lycra]

1 hour ago, Madyaker said:

Your government seems to have done a much better job than Italy’s here. They were too slow at tracking down people who had contact with the first known case. They still haven’t figured out how the virus got to Italy in the first place. 

Containment is the government's and WHO's hope to eliminate this virus however their biggest concern are carriers who can spread the virus widely without displaying any symptoms. 

[Lycra]

27 minutes ago, kalifire said:

The big trouble spots are the areas in the world with dense populations that have large numbers on the move in places with minimal to no containment and limited resources to cope. In other words, once again it's the poor that are fucked.

Europe falls into the category of dense populations with large numbers on the move and even the best resourced can be overwhelmed by sheer weight of numbers..........as by performance this morning on Zombie Attack proved 😣

[zahidf]

The increased racism is an issue as well

 

 

 

 

[northernringo]

39 minutes ago, kalifire said:

In the past, Emily's said they do have contingency plans for unlikely, high-risk events like a global pandemic, nuclear war, etc.

The bad news is that both GFL and the UK government will be actively considering whether to cancel large public events (of which festivals are just one), and there will definitely be scenarios that exist in which Glastonbury is cancelled, whether voluntarily or not.

The good news is that there would be plenty that would be cancelled ahead of Glastonbury, so we'd have a pretty good early warning system, and I don't think the current situation makes it likely that this would happen.

Also, as I understand it, in the areas of the world which are being pro-active in containment measures, numbers are being managed or even coming down. The big trouble spots are the areas in the world with dense populations that have large numbers on the move in places with minimal to no containment and limited resources to cope. In other words, once again it's the poor that are fucked.

From a selfish perspective, my flight in June goes through Hong Kong. I'm only transiting, but I know an enforced quarantine of even transiting passengers in hot-spot areas would happen a lot earlier than Glastonbury being cancelled.

Sadly, I disagree with some of what you have said. Iran, South Korea and Italy have exploded in a couple of days and things are being cancelled. Glastonbury could be cancelled at a day's notice - there is no suggestion of 'good early warning'.  Serie A matches were cancelled this weekend. Glastonbury is much more of a threat in terms of disease spreading than a football match (Weaker immune systems, less hygienic, people leaving to travel all over the world (as opposed to most people at a match staying in the city of the match and the other few thousand returning to another area)). 

I also imagine South Korea and Italy were being proactive in containment efforts, probably as much so as the UK. Both had prior known cases before they exponentially increased in number. Japan is another who I imagine are being proactive but can't stop their numbers rising yet.

Essentially though, there is nothing any of us can do but wait and see. It's impossible to predict either way so far ahead. I'm optimistic that Glastonbury will not be affected at all.

[grilladelphia]

2 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Essentially though, there is nothing any of us can do but wait and see. It's impossible to predict either way so far ahead. I'm optimistic that Glastonbury will not be affected at all.

I think with the weather too far out to predict we all just need something to worry about in the meantime

[kalifire]

23 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Glastonbury could be cancelled at a day's notice - there is no suggestion of 'good early warning'.

Not even similar festivals which are happening earlier not being cancelled?

[northernringo]

4 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Not even similar festivals which are happening earlier not being cancelled?

All depends on when the outbreak happens in the UK though. I was using the example of Italy in the weekend where the Serie A games had no prior warning as the outbreak was so fast.

If the outbreak happens on the weekend before Glastonbury there won't be much notice.

 

[kalifire]

Thank goodness we've taken back control of our borders after Brexit then, right?

 

 

Sigh.

[northernringo]

6 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Thank goodness we've taken back control of our borders after Brexit then, right?

 

 

Sigh.

For all my devil's advocate comments though I'm still optimistic that it won't impact the UK too much. Keeping a close eye on Thailand as I've a holiday booked there in late July though...

[AlexOvd]

Prime Minister of Slovakia in Hospital because of a high temperature and acute upper respiratory infection. Politics in quarantine soon? 😂

[t0paz]

A lot of viruses like this don’t spread as well in the summer months, hence why flu outbreaks tend to be in winter and not June. It’s to do with how it transfers in warm air compared to cold air. However, this is a brand new strain and nobody knows for sure yet. If places like Iran are still having problems when it’s UK June type temperatures over there, then we can worry. The place with the outbreak, Qom, still has low single digit temps at night.

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, northernringo said:

Glastonbury could be cancelled at a day's notice - there is no suggestion of 'good early warning'.

I reckon it's very likely that other stuff will be being cancelled before Glastonbury is cancelled (if it's cancelled).

The chance of an outbreak just before Glastonbury is low compared to the chance of an outbreak between now and just before Glastonbury.

[hfuhruhurr]

Unless we're not being told some crucial information about this virus (like those that recover put on their pyjamas and wander around with their arms outstretched asking for more brain), then there's no way anything will be cancelled once it's rife. It's less dangerous than the flu and we don't stop glastonbury for the flu. The fuss at the mo is about containment, once it's out of the bag we'll treat it like every other coronavirus.

 

[Lycra]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

I reckon it's very likely that other stuff will be being cancelled before Glastonbury is cancelled (if it's cancelled).

The chance of an outbreak just before Glastonbury is low compared to the chance of an outbreak between now and just before Glastonbury.

We are really in the lap of the Gods as what develops. Hopefully the containment methods adopted in other countries will not be needed here. That said, should the situation worsen, travel restrictions for persons coming to the country from infected areas could be implemented. In a way we are already witnessing this by the voluntary action of airlines in cancelling routes, but official government action could be taken. And if the UK were to be hit by a significant outbreak (heard a virulogist quantify this as 100+ cases) then the government would be forced to take action in a similar way to Italy, which has imposed area quarantining and cancellation sporting fixtures etc.

It is all in the IF. But if we do have a major UK outbreak , a near 1/4 million people travelling from across the UK and globe to the hallowed turf of Worthy Farm will be a huge concern for health officials and government. 

[ogriff]

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1231993331217031169

Govt analysis states no net benefit of cancelling large gatherings in case of a pandemic... So the worry is over, right?

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, ogriff said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1231993331217031169

Govt analysis states no net benefit of cancelling large gatherings in case of a pandemic... So the worry is over, right?

Id like to think the Govt doesnt change its mind .... but ....

[eFestivals]

33 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

It's less dangerous than the flu and we don't stop glastonbury for the flu.

it's death-rate is about 200 times worse than the flu, and with need for hospitalisation in around 25% of cases (which is waaaaay more than flu).

If it became rife then there would be a point where there's little point having containment measures, but even then people will want to stay away from other people. After all, who wants to increase their chances of getting an illness that has a bigger chance than the norm of killing them?

[Garethman]

From the perspective of a health professional and someone who has been to the festival many times over the last fifty years I can say this with reasonable confidence. 
1) If the virus becomes an issue and is not contained, neither Glastonbury or any other festival will go ahead. 
2) Glastonbury will have no say in that decision, it be a Cobra/DoH decision.
3) Such a decision would apply to all large gatherings. 
4) The peak will probably be about late May, early June, the vaccine will not be available for 6 months minimum. 
5) There is a real risk that it will be cancelled, but lets hope things go well. I have much work to do and do not want to miss my 50th anniversary festival !
 

[Copperface]

4 hours ago, northernringo said:

Same with Iran.

Meanwhile some countries like India managed to stop the spread at 3 cases (so far) and the likes of the UK, Germany, Spain, have contained it pretty well. Even Cambodia has managed to only have one case which has since recovered).

Italy has not been 'slack'. the reason they have a cluster of diagnosed cases is that they are remarkably  stringent.  Don't really have that much confidence in the Indian state to contain it. 

Genie is out of the bottle here. This is a bloom that has come about approx two weeks after the CN New Year and massive movements of people. Only now are the diagnoses starting.

It;s coming here, already is here and not a lot we can do to stop it. Fatality ratios are one thing, It is clear however, that a greater number will need ICU care and intensive assistance on a scale not seen before. The UK simply does not have that capacity.

Glass half empty here, I'm afraid.