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2020 Line-up Thread


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1 hour ago, xxialac said:

What are people's odds on this going ahead?

I'm about 60% I think.

If EOTR are willing to gamble, that's very significant but I suppose they could still change their mind before incurring a lot more cost.

The key is they have a little time to spare should things take longer, ten weeks between 21st June and the start of EOTR week. That's not a great amount of time to be playing with but by then the number of adults with a second jab should be a comfortable majority given first jabs may well reach 50% by Easter. Additionally Melvin Benn, while not confirming anything, has suggested testing will create a festival-sized bubble, though presumably you'd have to account somehow for people who don't stay on site and artists and associated who are only there for a limited time. But as with anything this year, I'll only definitely know it's on when I'm past the wristband exchange.

Edited by SweepingTheNation
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48 minutes ago, The Nal said:

If the reality is anywhere close to the current plan theres a great chance. Bands are itching to play and they could pull it together physically in a few weeks really once the back office work is done. 

We'll be drinking pints of Neck Oil in the sun in September. Mark it down.

Still way too much risk here IMO. It's the UK, can't be sure there'll be sun😉

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I have a feeling they might not have the big top or tipi stage, but I wonder how they would fit in another "open air" stage without noise interfering with garden stage. I also think many international bands (Bright eyes 😢 ...) probably won't make it, but it's still going to be amazing regardless. I feel like I'll end up crying with joy when I arrive!

Also the government did a research survey to see if people would be willing to pay for a covid test before festivals, so that is a possibility. I'd prefer free rapid testing though.

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1 hour ago, Sean1234321 said:

I don't feel like festivals should have to make too many compromises...i mean it's either safe to put the event on or it isn't. 

Not necessarily, as much as big marquee tents are, and usually can further be, ventilated we know there are ways of making sure something is more safe even if just to quell those who are now worried about the return of crowds and close contact, and as mentioned earlier there's going to be test events in the spring to see if restrictions still need apply to minimise risk after Step 4 is reached.

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2 hours ago, Sean1234321 said:

I don't feel like festivals should have to make too many compromises...i mean it's either safe to put the event on or it isn't. 

I don’t agree.

Ventilation is a *major* factor in transmission so whilst nothing is 100% safe, it’s much more safe to compromise on indoor spaces and tilt the scales towards the risk being acceptable.

‘Safeness’ is a mirage anyway. Terrorist attacks still happen at venues with lots of security. And “covid-safe” workplaces aren’t free of the risk of covid.

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2 hours ago, Sean1234321 said:

I know, I'm being too hopeful expecting these events to run as normal...i guess it's just the excitement of them actually taking place. 

I'm just sort of hoping the compromise will be opening up the sides of he tent a little bit...not removing them altogether 😭

Oh I'm with you all the way and love the Tipi.

But in the end, I'll take EOTR in any format we get it...will just be so grateful if it happens at all!

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Are we expecting a mass exodus of international acts? How likely is it acts like Pixies, big thief, bright eyes come over for this one off gig and then go back to touring what seems to be nowhere? In my head I've already kinda accepted that most if not all international acts are no go. Still a great line up based on UK acts alone though! 

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We're 8 months away from this happening. Right now we've got no idea what it will look like. But the "roadmap" suggests international travel to and from the UK is possible from May (appreciate that rules may be different for the countries the acts are travelling from), clubs and indoor venues can operate from the middle on June, all adults will have been offered a vaccination by July. With all these things in place there is genuinely no reason why anything but a "normal" EOTR is possible.

It would have to take a monumental fuck up for anything to change this and if the vaccination programme doesn't enable "normality" then you've got to ask "what is the point?"

Edited by shoebox
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20 minutes ago, shoebox said:

We're 8 months away from this happening. Right now we've got no idea what it will look like. But the "roadmap" suggests international travel to and from the UK is possible from May (appreciate that rules may be different for the countries the acts are travelling from), clubs and indoor venues can operate from the middle on June, all adults will have been offered a vaccination by July. With all these things in place there is genuinely no reason why anything but a "normal" EOTR is possible.

It would have to take a monumental fuck up for anything to change this and if the vaccination programme doesn't enable "normality" then you've got to ask "what is the point?"

6 months till the event itself, but of course it doesn’t just happen, it’s a massive logistical exercise. I don’t disagree with your sentiment, but if the last twelve months have taught us anything it must be a) be prepared for things to change at short or no notice (not ideal for an event that takes planning on this scale) and b) ‘monumental fuck up’ is Johnson’s middle name. To add to all the ridiculous ones he already has. 
 

I am hopeful it will happen now, but being any more confident than that would be foolhardy I fear. 

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Apologies, yes it's 6 months. I think this past year has frazzled my brain. 

But I do think that if EOTR cannot be held in the capacity as we know it (or at least 99% as we know it), it won't happen. And the only way that can really happen is a complete failure in the vaccination programme. I'm no Boris apologist, believe me, the sooner the man and his party are out of No.10 the better, but this programme is going so well at the moment it's hard to see where it can fail. I guess supply is the biggest spanner that can be thrown into the works. Simon has stated in the press that they can pretty much get it up and running in a couple of weeks, so having been given provisional dates for when things can open up takes away that logistical head-ache.

I guess my main point is that if by September, all adults have been offered the vaccine and the majority of them have even had their second dose (which should be the case), all this talk about reduced capacity, no indoors spaces, etc. goes away. There will be lots of people still very uncomfortable with the idea of returning to normality, to crowds etc. and I guess they stay away. It then comes down to personal choice.

There is still the issue of international acts travelling, and that does all depend on how well the rest of the world are dealing with their own vaccination programmes, but we've seen here what can be achieved in a little over 2 months (20 million people vaccinated), so it's not worth trying to predict what the scenario will be in 6 months time as it should look very different to how it looks now.

You're right. Over-confidence is a foolish thing. I mean, I was convinced it would happen last year right up the cancellation announcement. The confidence this time round is more based in hope. If it can't happen then we're in a VERY dire situation and I cannot carry on having such a negative outlook on life. We've got to have things to look forward to.

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I'm about 60% on EOTR happening...but no more than that.

For one thing bands get paid advances so EOTR will have a cut off period by which they need to have paid these. That won't be a few weeks before.

And as for international acts, in my head I'm assuming practically no acts ex-Europe will come.

That's because they need tours to justify coming to the UK and if other countries are not running festivals, it doesn't make it worth it.

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2 hours ago, shoebox said:

I guess my main point is that if by September, all adults have been offered the vaccine and the majority of them have even had their second dose (which should be the case), all this talk about reduced capacity, no indoors spaces, etc. goes away.

But we don't know if this is going to be the case, hence the DMCS announcement on running test events in spring primarily to see if indoor venues will still need safeguards but also looking at whether tens of thousands of people can gather together outdoors without a major risk (and presumably anything associated with covered areas therein)

What would a EOTR with only UK-based acts even look like? Shear off the non-Brits from the top of the bill and that leaves King Krule, Little Simz, Aldous Harding (New Zealander but last I heard based in Wales), The Comet Is Coming, Girl Band (probably), Field Music, Squid, Richard Dawson, Warmduscher, BCNR, Anna Meredith, Blanck Mass, Archie Bronson Outfit, Arlo Parks, Girl Ray... it's not bad for itself and I know people will want to play anywhere by September, but for what people expect from the festival that's a lot of top end EOTR-friendly names they'd have to bring in at short notice.

Edited by SweepingTheNation
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4 hours ago, shoebox said:

... this programme is going so well at the moment it's hard to see where it can fail. I guess supply is the biggest spanner that can be thrown into the works. 

[...]

I guess my main point is that if by September, all adults have been offered the vaccine and the majority of them have even had their second dose (which should be the case), all this talk about reduced capacity, no indoors spaces, etc. goes away.

Much as I hope I'm wrong, I honestly don't think it will be this simple. The vaccination programme is going better than anyone could have imagined, you're right. But there are two major hurdles on the horizon

- Israel, who are way ahead of even the UK in their vaccination programme have hit a bit of a wall now that they've got down to the under 30s ... there is a much lower uptake of the vaccine from youngsters. That could make festivals tricky

- The AZ vaccine hasn't really been working well enough in South Africa because of the new and predominant variant there (In fact they've stopped buying it and switched to one of the RNA vaccines). So if this plus the Brazilian P1 and other as yet undiscovered variants take hold over here, we'll be back into another vaccination programme of tweaked vaccines. Big gatherings may just be too much to risk if that is the case.

As I said, I really hope I'm wrong. I'm still optimistic enough to have bought tickets since the announcement for Barn On The Farm and Latitude - both of which are much earlier than EOTR - and I'd have bought for this if it hadn't f'ing well sold out in 24 hours (in fact Latitude was a panicky replacement for EOTR). But in the even of it not happening, I think the disappointment will be less if we remind ourselves that there's all sorts of things could conspire to thwart festivals even if we run the vaccine programme as smoothly as we have so far.

 

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6 minutes ago, Mackem said:

Much as I hope I'm wrong, I honestly don't think it will be this simple. The vaccination programme is going better than anyone could have imagined, you're right. But there are two major hurdles on the horizon

- Israel, who are way ahead of even the UK in their vaccination programme have hit a bit of a wall now that they've got down to the under 30s ... there is a much lower uptake of the vaccine from youngsters. That could make festivals tricky

- The AZ vaccine hasn't really been working well enough in South Africa because of the new and predominant variant there (In fact they've stopped buying it and switched to one of the RNA vaccines). So if this plus the Brazilian P1 and other as yet undiscovered variants take hold over here, we'll be back into another vaccination programme of tweaked vaccines. Big gatherings may just be too much to risk if that is the case.

As I said, I really hope I'm wrong. I'm still optimistic enough to have bought tickets since the announcement for Barn On The Farm and Latitude - both of which are much earlier than EOTR - and I'd have bought for this if it hadn't f'ing well sold out in 24 hours (in fact Latitude was a panicky replacement for EOTR). But in the even of it not happening, I think the disappointment will be less if we remind ourselves that there's all sorts of things could conspire to thwart festivals even if we run the vaccine programme as smoothly as we have so far.

 

A very reasonable view.

The people who say that Summer festivals are all but guaranteed to go ahead are not learning from the past.

There remains risk. I'm optimistic but not confident.

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I have tickets for two festivals, one at each end of the summer: Black Deer and EOTR.

BD was originally slated to take place on 18/19/20th June, thus before the supposed restriction removal date, so they've moved it to a week later. Rightly or wrongly, I sort of think this is something of a desperation move as financially they can't afford for the festival not to go ahead. The glaring problem of course is that SAGE have basically said the 21st June date should simply be regarded as a "no earlier" than date, whereas BD, optimistically and naively assuming that Johnson's utterances have any connection either with accuracy or truth, have gambled upon it being set in stone. As to the line-up itself, it's semi-disappeared from the festival website. As it stood, it was a seriously impressive and attractive line-up, but I would have said at least 75% of that line-up was overseas, rising probably to at least 95% of the headliners proper. Now, I can't see any of them being remotely able to travel, whether with the revised dates or otherwise. The organisers say they're actively re-working the line-up with new and current artists: whatever, it will not be remotely at the level of the festival as originally billed. I suspect the caliber of any replacements will inevitably be disappointing and I fear the streets of Tunbridge Wells will be somewhat empty of buskers that weekend. Realistically, BD should have rolled over for another year, but for the organisers I get that that would not have been, well, realistic.

On the other hand, EOTR is at the right end of the summer and has more than two months more for matters to resolve themselves. There is not the imbalance with overseas acts, and where there are any such acts and replacements are needed, I'm confident that any such will be at the very least interesting; or, as replacements, The Wave Pictures can play an extended 4 hour set.

So I'm not sure that the BD gamble will come off, but in the same way I don't think that EOTR will be a gamble, I don't think it's at all over-optimistic to expect it to happen, and I look forward to the time I can stop recreating the home-to- Larmer Tree trip on google streetview, and do the real thing.

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