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efests Exit Poll


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efests Exit Poll   

524 members have voted

  1. 1. Who did you vote for?

    • Brexit Party
      2
    • Conservatives
      33
    • Green Party
      23
    • Labour
      356
    • Liberal Democrats
      77
    • SNP
      17
    • UKIP
      3
    • Other
      12


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3 hours ago, kalifire said:

I think it's difficult to pinpoint why Labour did so badly, and I'm minded to believe it was a perfect storm of:

  • General exasperation over Brexit and parliament's failure to sort it out
  • A leader - Jeremy Corbyn - who displayed little charisma or likeability outside of the bubble
  • A Labour membership utterly disconnected from the voting public and too distracted with themselves and their vision
  • A disunited shadow cabinet and PLP
  • The movement towards political extremes and the vacation of the centre ground

I don't think it was Labour's manifesto that did it, and I'd hate for those policies to be abandoned. If Labour stand for fairness and equality and get beaten every time, that's preferable to compromising their principles to get power.

That said, Momentum have to go along with Corbyn. If there's mass membership cancellations, so be it. They've been poison to the party.

Agree with all this.

I hope Keir Starmer gets a crack at it. I think he can tap in to what made Blair so popular. I'd love a socialist government personally, but clearly the public doesn't want that. The far left of the party might not be happy with a move towards the centre, but I think Starmer can be really successful. Always comes across very well informed, rational and likeable (in my view at least). 

Edited by jparx
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8 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

No. Blair wasn't centre right no matter how much it suits some people to label him as that. 

Blair not being perfect is fuck all to do with him being centre right.

Agreed.

5 minutes ago, Benja100 said:

And how many vulnerable people will that approach help? 

This is what is wrong with a so called principled but uncompromising politician. 

There are too many different power groups and opinions in a political party for a one size fits all solution.  The trick isn't to not compromise, the trick is to not compromise too much.

Don't want to agree, but that appears to be reality.

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21 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

When the next General Election comes around, only Tony Blair will have won an Election for Labour in 50 years. 

We are a Tory country. Sad as fuck, but it's true.

100% this. And if the media remains as is or even more right leaning, and Scotland fucks off, it’s going to be nigh on impossible

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17 hours ago, Hugh Jass said:

The Tories won the seat Grenfell was in.

Let that sink in for a minute.

 

16 hours ago, fatyeti24 said:

It's in Kensington, home of loads of very wealthy people. 

Very wealthy people that have a giant memorial of social injustice sitting outside their windows. 
 

I mean, it’s been covered up but they still walked past it to the polling station. 
 

I agree with @H.M.V - it stings. 

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29 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

No. Blair wasn't centre right no matter how much it suits some people to label him as that. 

Blair not being perfect is fuck all to do with him being centre right.

You've misread my point. My point is that even 'sensible' centre left politics might not cut it any more. It didn't do Gordon Brown or Ed Milliband much good.

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7 minutes ago, Benja100 said:

Thanks for this detailed and insightful post which I will reflect on, I have not posted it all to keep the thread concise

'Tory scum' is a general theme that to be fair I haven't seen on here and am not saying you said but I'm using it to make a point here.  I think whilst there are very many selfish people out there and they will likely vote Tory, there are very many more who see it as a social responsibility to not get the country into huge debt again.  Lots of Labour's manifesto was laudable.  And some of it was absolutely not.  I don't think it is helpful to get into the ins and outs and specific arguments about things but as an example a lot of voters and maybe less so on here due to age, remember the unions being overbearing, the railways not working well under nationalisation, and in some extreme cases things like rubbish piling up in the street and even unburied bodies due to strikes.  People looking to avoid a re-run of this are not selfish.  A lot of people associate austerity with an overspend.  I know the banking crisis was the trigger but public spending funded by borrowing was also factor, borroeing rose sharply in the Brown years.  Say that is 100% incorrect as some of you will believe.  Even if so, a vote motivated by that, is not selfish vote.  All I am saying is, if you are against predujuce, do not tar 14 million people with one brush.

As for Liverpool, I will defer to your comments about it - I have visited the city quite a few times and I have some family there who in fairness are pretty scathing about the 1980's, my views on it are shaped through a relatively narrow window of experience and seeing a boarded up street and having a man follow me down the main shopping street selling drugs was quite shocking to me at the time so it possibly over-colored my views so I will reflect on your comments and be less bullish with my opinion on this :)

 

Cheers Benj, the general (not exclusive) opinion of people who come to visit now is "oh, it's actually really nice", which wouldn't have been the case when I went to Uni. Still big problems and the feeling is that we're in the shit with this government. I lived this latest manifesto after having thought it was too left and unworkable at the previous one. Would love a groundhog Day with someone of the charisma of a Blair, Obama or Trudeau. Would be fascinating. I think the path of the last few election cycles would have been similar regardless of who was in, as economic advice is usually outsourced rather than in house decisions by politicians who aren't economists, but yeah, that's just my possibly incorrect opinion. 

This just feels like a botched, missed opportunity.

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5 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

You've misread my point. My point is that even 'sensible' centre left politics might not cut it any more. It didn't do Gordon Brown or Ed Milliband much good.

Neither was able to behave like a vaguely normal/relatable human being sadly. starmer May be able to pull it off 

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30 minutes ago, jparx said:

Agree with all this.

I hope Keir Starmer gets a crack at it. I think he can tap in to what made Blair so popular. I'd love a socialist government personally, but clearly the public doesn't want that. The far left of the party might not be happy with a move towards the centre, but I think Starmer can be really successful. Always comes across very well informed, rational and likeable (in my view at least). 

The far left of the party pretty much are the party these days.  Witness how much Starmer was seen during the six weeks of the election - one appearance standing behind his boss to offer answers to questions being asked of Corbyn as he spoke to the press about Brexit.  And then, like everyone else who wasn't a die-hard Corbynite, was relegated back to the shadows.

The Tories operated in exactly the same way with many of their big front benchers not being seen, so maybe that's just how it's done now, but I reckon it makes Starmer's chances of leading pretty slim.  Now is probably a good time to join Labour if that's the outcome you wish to see.

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12 minutes ago, Homer said:

Neither was able to behave like a vaguely normal/relatable human being sadly. starmer May be able to pull it off 

Odd...neither them ever really struck me as abnormal or weird.

11 minutes ago, Homer said:

Nationalising broadband? And even that were the case, they chose the wrong man to sell it then 

Don't dispute the latter. Clearly.

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As an unreconstructed Blairite, here's what I think were the main problems with Labour's campaign:

1) Half the country wants Brexit, so a second referendum would have put this at serious risk.

2) Corbyn comes across as a terrible leader to anyone outside his rank and file.  He also has way too much baggage and no charisma whatsoever.

3) The Left always has credibility issues when it comes to managing the economy, so the uncosted nationalisation programme that nobody asked for and the post-manifesto giveaways (e.g. to Waspi women) exasperated this.  People worried that his spending and giveaways would run out of control and it wouldn't be the top 5% paying a bit more tax, it would be the top 50% paying a lot more tax.  Either that or we'd face national bankruptcy and austerity in years to come that would dwarf what we've just seen.

4) Whilst the antisemitism issue probably had little direct effect on the way people voted (outside of 1 or 2 north London constituencies), it demonstrated Corbyn's inability to lead and deal with difficult issues.  The Left's obsession with Israel is also a massive turnoff.

 

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6 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Odd...neither them ever really struck me as abnormal or weird.


Miliband, rightly or wrongly, couldn’t get a bacon sandwich down properly. He didn’t speak with any authority. Brown had no relatable personal touch (even though he apparently does in real life). Both were inferior at connecting with people than Blair, Cameron and Johnson.

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13 minutes ago, Homer said:


Miliband, rightly or wrongly, couldn’t get a bacon sandwich down properly. He didn’t speak with any authority. Brown had no relatable personal touch (even though he apparently does in real life). Both were inferior at connecting with people than Blair, Cameron and Johnson.

That statement is very very odd to me. It's factually accurate, but I cannot understand what connection someone from Rochdale, Oldham, Bury or Burnley has with them. I can't at all.

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3 hours ago, Benja100 said:

I didn’t sayr that £80k isn’t a lot of income, I’m not saying people on £80k can’t be taxed more. What I am saying is that if 5% of the population is ‘the few’ then it isn’t likely that you’re going to be able to make the other 95% of the population £6000 a year better off by taxing the 5% just because of the maths. 

I’m finding your debating style quite confrontational and aggressive. There’s no need for it we’re all friends here trying to make the best of a very poor result for Labour and the country. Please chill out a bit no one is here for a fight amongst ourselves :) 

When I hear those absolute figures from any party I don't pay much heed to them "no plan survives first contact with the enemy" - there are so many unknowns. So I hadn't read up on it.

But, I just did for the purpose of this debate. The source I read says 6k refers to savings that an average household would have made if Labour policies were implemented based on some figures and a bit of conjecture by the Labour party (2 season ticket rail cards etc) so yeah, take it with a pinch of salt anyway, but its not the same as spending an additional 6k, even if the way it was marketed maybe suggests that.

Even so, govt spending would increase yes but I can't find any evidence to suggest that the funding for the policies comes solely from increasing income tax on the top 5% of earners. They have made it clear that there would be increases in other taxes and borrowing. You mentioned that they are counting on interest rates being low and thats true in the first instance, but interests rates would only tend to go up in times of monetary expansion, when things are going good. At that point tax revenues also increase and reduce the need for borrowing. The investment in human capital and infrastructure would also generate income down the line and is absolutely necessary. Far more than tax relief for big business or whatever bullshit the tories come up with, what is holding productivity in this country back (particularly the regions) is exactly the fact that they have shit infrastructure, transport and skills shortages etc.

The infuriating thing about tory policy is that it isn't even consistent with neoclassical economics. The neoclassical ideal is markets of perfect competition. The contract based system for rails just breeds cronyism and local rail monopolies which are just as inefficient as any state owned monopoly with the difference being that they're run for profit so the profits are not put back into the business and they are able to get away with treating passengers with the contempt we expect from a private company rather than one owned by the state. Also, the tax system for companies, the loopholes and the regulations overwhelming benefit the large organisations at the expense of smaller businesses, competition and efficiency. Also being anti EU for what appear to be broadly trumpian protectionist/anti free movement reasons is vs neoclassical economics. And so much more besides. The conclusion being, they aren't driven by ideology, they are simply the Rich Mean Bastards Preservation Society.

Also, re your other comments on the unions in the 80s - I wasn't alive so I don't know and strikes can be disruptive, but in a world where executives are often unaccountable and policies are unfair, collective action and collective bargaining have been one of the few tools people have to improve things for themselves. We owe a lot to all those who those who fought for our rights.. like the Beastie Boys for example.

Also apologies for the tone previously, you're right, we are on the same team. But I do believe that we can't let the tories or the lib dems or the right wing press decide who the Labour party should be and what policies we should have. We just need to find a way to win the argument. I think that starts with a charismatic leader who can sell it. I wish to god we had somebody like Ocasio-Cortez over in the US but I'm sorry to say nobody springs to mind when I think of the current prospects.

Edited by mattiloy
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"Political Correctness gone mad" is a massive phrase. Its how your Piers Morgan's & Katie Hopkins get airtime.

Labour is seen as a "snowflake" party. Thing is, say you dont support the queen, or when James McClean wont wear a poppy & that lot go mental. They are the most PC bunch of them all.

What they add into the anti political correctness argument is Jingoism and nationalism. Working class people are voting for a party they believes is "British", well actually "English".  Anti semitism wasnt mentioned at all arpund here. The IRA stuff was, big style. 

Not being able to fly a St Georges cross.

"Why do the Irish get St Paddys day off? We should get georges day"

All that bollocks (well to me it is).

That resonates with people around here. I will never ever understand it... but it does.

Edited by FuzzyDunlop
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8 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

That statement is very very odd to me. It's factually accurate, but I cannot understand what connection someone from Rochdale, Oldham, Bury or Burnley has with them. I can't at all.

Most people aren't all the politically engaged. I reckon, other than traditional left/right splits, most people just want to look at someone on TV/on the front of a paper and think they look vaguely authoritative/competent/trustworthy. This is where Blair and Cameron both did well.

Brown, Miliband and May can all be filed under competent enough politicians who didn't have the charisma, etc for the top job.

Johnson seems to have created a new category for himself, which is people think he's a laugh riot (said on Newsnight last night that his positive approach was a big plus).

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If anyone is interested in what are are discussing now - what Labour did wrong and needs to do now and why people 'like' Johnson - then they were discussing it right at the end of Newsnight last night when I got in and it was very interesting. Discussion with a Labour activist and columnist and a uni politics expert - about the last 5/10 mins:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000c64d/newsnight-13122019

Edited by Homer
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