How Many People Really Are Trying For Tickets?

[Gnomicide]

1 minute ago, MaxPower said:

Which I don't get. I registered in 2013 and didn't look at it or every try to get tickets until it was mentioned to me by a mate the day before general T day last year.

 

Registration still active and had no issues.

They cleared all the pre-2010 ones at that point. If you registered in 2013 you would be fine.

Anecdotally it was because the photo's weren't as clear prior to 2010 due to improvements in digital photography etc.

[waltere]

1 minute ago, Garrett_Salas said:

I'd say 500-700k people (complete guess). Looking round, and from my own experience, 1 in 4 chance (i.e. 1 group out of every 4 trying got them) seems reasonable. I'd say those roped in to try on others behalf are probably outweighed by people who get tickets without trying. Then maybe increasing the number as I'd say people on here/i know probably are biased towards better success rate.

Almost bang on my thoughts.

Something like a 4 or 5 to 1 ratio of people actually attempting to tickets available, with eFesters and the like having a slightly higher success rate due to levels of "commitment", mass groups, buying for others etc.

[MaxPower]

1 minute ago, Gnomicide said:

They cleared all the pre-2010 ones at that point. If you registered in 2013 you would be fine.

Anecdotally it was because the photo's weren't as clear prior to 2010 due to improvements in digital photography etc.

 

Ah that makes sense.

[uscore]

10 minutes ago, GETOFFAMYLAWN said:

It can't be that oversubscribed, otherwise everybody on here who has been multiple times would be a statistical miracle.

Yeah this is how I feel.  I've got a ticket every year and so have most of our groups.  This year we've got around 60% and I'm sure we'll pick up a few more in the resales.   I don't think we're that organised, so I can't see how there are a million people trying.  Unless a lot of those million people aren't trying very hard.

My guess is around 600k.  But a lot of those are trying for a single or pair of tickets for themselves and so have fewer chances to get a page up.

I also have a suspicion they could handle more traffic and have it sell out much quicker, but they throttle it a bit to make more people feel like they have a chance.  If it sold out in 2 minutes there'd be even more angry people than there are now. 

Edited October 8, 2019 by uscore

[thrillhouse188]

Additional difficulty is estimating the difference between number of people trying and number of 'tries', ie accounting for a single person using multiple devices. I did notice a lot of the ballot brigade on twitter bemoaning that they "followed the rules exactly" by using once device, one window, one tab as recommended, would be interesting to see a distribution of number of 'tries', as well as success rate as a function of number of devices

[Matt42]

18 minutes ago, stuie said:

So, based on nothing/anecdotal evidence, I'd guess about 400K people wanted the 135K tickets.

 

 

I just don’t think the chances are that good of getting tickets lol.

I interpret “trying” quite liberally too. I think there’s a lot of people who give it a go even if they aren’t necessarily smashing 50 keyboards to get a booking page!

[Gnomicide]

38 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Between 1m-2m trying I reckon.

I know peoples circles are different but as someone who has a lot of friends / connections with the music industry - or I am in circles that live and breathe music and events, it really does feel like bloody everyone is trying / wants to go.

If even the lower range of this figure is correct it would mean one in every two people who have registered since 2010 was trying to get tickets. 4 of the people I went with in 2010 are still registered and none of them were trying this year, I know another 3 who also weren't bothering. 

[jparx]

I know Twitter polls are Twitter polls, but on the Thingy's poll after coach sale, it looked like about 20% of people who tried got some (not necessarily all) tickets. So if it's roughly a 1 in 5 chance, you're looking at 675,000 people trying.

Edited October 8, 2019 by jparx

[grilladelphia]

10 minutes ago, jparx said:

I know Twitter polls are Twitter polls, but on the Thingy's poll after coach sale, it looked like about 20% of people who tried got some (not necessarily all) tickets. So if it's roughly a 1 in 5 chance, you're looking at 675,000 people trying.

would definitely be interesting to know the split between the 2 sales, coach definitely seemed harder than previous.

[Yokel Again]

Only from giving it no real thought (helpful) - I think most years I've been then half the people I know get them and half don't. I reckon those who try hardest (big groups), so that increases their chances.... so I'm going for maybe x4 the tickets that are sold, so what's that?... 600k indivudals? (Most on numerous devices).

[doogie]

From what I've observed, the overall success rate seems to have been around 35%.

Some groups were clearly a lot more successful than others - for groups that were well organised and where everyone knew what they were doing the success rate was often over 50%, whereas other less organised groups had very little success.

So by my calculations, if there were 135,000 tickets available then I reckon just shy of around 400,000 people were actually after a ticket.

[a6l6e6x]

I'd guess the half a million mark. Out of those there will be casuals who try refreshing a couple times and then resort to complaining on twitter

[FuzzyDunlop]

I estimated at 400,000 on Saturday on this forum... I'm sticking with that kind of figure. The success rate on here is too high for if it was in the million range (There is no evidence for this, but it is scientific fact)

Edited October 8, 2019 by FuzzyDunlop

[stuie]

2 minutes ago, grilladelphia said:

would definitely be interesting to know the split between the 2 sales, coach definitely seemed harder than previous.

I think this is due to the knock on effect year on year.

I know people that went for (and got) coach tickets this year, not because they wanted to go by coach but because they missed out on the general sale last year.

So, you now have an inflated number of people trying on Thursday as a second bite of the cherry.

 

Emily and Michael say every year that they don't take the high demand for granted but I wonder how much it would take for that demand to slip away.

People might even stop trying simply because they think they have no chance and can't deal with the stress, getting up on a Sunday morning, even staying in the night before, all for disappointment.

I think it's would only take a couple of wet muddy years to bring demand back down.

[stuie]

Just now, FuzzyDunlop said:

I estimated at 400,000 on Saturday on this forum... I'm sticking with that kind of figure. The success rate on here is too high if it was in the million range (There is no evidence for this, but it is scientific fact)

I agree with your figure.

The success rate here is too high - not just this year, but over recent years.

Sure, people around here are dedicated to the cause but many of us have been year after year for a long time.

We can't all be ticket buying marvels bucking the trend, beating 100's of thousands of people every year.

 

[Quark]

Of the people I know who've been since they cleaned up in 2015, I can think of at least 10 who haven't applied this year against 11 who have.

I reckon you could at least slash that total number of registrations in half.

[Quark]

1 minute ago, stuie said:

I agree with your figure.

The success rate here is too high - not just this year, but over recent years.

Sure, people around here are dedicated to the cause but many of us have been year after year for a long time.

We can't all be ticket buying marvels bucking the trend, beating 100's of thousands of people every year.

 

I think you could expect a higher success rate on here because we're all obsessed lunatics organised and dedicated

[whitehorses]

I don’t think it’s surprising there’s significant success from Efests members. If one’s committed enough to speculate wildly about Glasto all day then tend to be committed to the ticket mission.

It feels like there’s a whole, large, category of people who aren’t trying very hard, or at all, but are in try-hard groups with one or two people of the 6 using multiple devices.

Our group was only about 50% successful and we tried pretty hard. Would probably put the number of registrations that are trying to be won in total between *650 and 850k. With about 250-350 absolute die hards.

*guessing about things which I’m completely ignorant about is fun 

 

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, GETOFFAMYLAWN said:

It can't be that oversubscribed, otherwise everybody on here who has been multiple times would be a statistical miracle.

Nah it's only been that oversubscribed the past 3 or 4 sales. 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 odds three times in a row isn't miraculous - indeed, in a population of 130K there's going to be quite a few. 

The people that have been 10, 15 times in a row aren't really relevant as it's only the past few years it's been proper difficult. I'd wager by 2025 there won't be many people that have done ten on the trot (if not working/volunteering).

[Doug85]

Difficult to say as I know some people who had multiple family members trying for 2 people etc. If that's just a couple of examples then there is a potential that much more could actually be trying for tickets than suggested

[Sack truck]

18 minutes ago, stuie said:

I agree with your figure.

The success rate here is too high - not just this year, but over recent years.

Sure, people around here are dedicated to the cause but many of us have been year after year for a long time.

We can't all be ticket buying marvels bucking the trend, beating 100's of thousands of people every year.

 

I agree, I've been fortunate to try 6 times and been lucky each time and only had 6 people trying - it was right at the death this time, had resigned myself to the resale. As group we know we are blessed and treat each one as though it's our last

[Padgey]

I had a reply to a topic on Facebook where someone had 4 registrations.  I do think there are a lot of people with more than one registration.

Also probably what isn't taken into account in the numbers is people not going who are trying for others, or people who go a ticket and didn't try for whatever reason so relied on others.

All in all we'll just never really know how many people were "trying"!

 

[Avalon_Fields]

Firstly, if our tables are any way close to the truth, it most certainly pays to be on efestivals ( @eFestivals unpaid plug ) as our results are better.

It would be a really sobering lesson if, despite all our analysis, tactics, IT advice, probably working more in groups of 6 people or multi-groups, etc we weren't doing better than the average. It's bordering arrogant to say this I guess, but maybe also true.

If @Gnomicide has more accurate overall figures (It's a bigger poll) and making the assumption the middle category is an average of 50% success, then it's around 351,000 trying. Biggest factor skewing this is more people that are successful will vote than those who didn't get tickets. By what margin? Who knows, I'll say twice as much, therefore 700,000 trying.

Cod statistics, reliably.

[thrillhouse188]

As a very crude estimate, I've properly been involved in 4 sales, 2019 main and then resale, then 2020 coach and main. I think the first we had 7 or so people trying, with 1 success (got through to booking page and managed to buy tickets), the resale we had 6, again 1 success, 2020 coach it was 11, 1 success, finally 2020 main was 12 with 2 successes. Obviously I don't know what everyones set up was, which is obviously going to muddle things, but over the 4 sales that's 36 attempts, and 5 successes, just shy of a 14% success rate 

[The Clearest Blue]

This will be my sixth successful year in a row, there is no way I am lucky enough for there to have been 1 million people trying for 135k tickets and I have got one every year. I've always assumed it was in the million range but thinking about it in the context of my success rate this just can't be true. However a quick look at my facebook friends shows me that 37 out 102 were trying for tickets, which shows me that I clearly live in my happy little echo chamber.