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How Many People Really Are Trying For Tickets?


Gnomicide
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I was having this discussion with someone on Twitter and thought I'd throw it out to the eFests hive mind.

GFL always trot out the number of registrations but as we all know, that's everyone who has registered since 2010 and they're not all trying. There are also people with multiple registrations. 

The 2.4 million figure quoted would mean about 1 in every 28 people on the UK trying.

I think sometimes our perceptions can be thrown out because we all have friends who go but personally my close friends are the type of people who go to festivals, indeed I've met a fair few of them at festivals. However, when I look to my wider circle, none of my wife's close friends go. Apart from my eldest son, no-one in my family goes, I used to work in a company with hundreds of employees and I never met anyone who actually went.

@Avalon_Fields's poll on here is showing 34% had no luck at all.

Screenshot_20191008-131035_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6b344bb0bf5f79f398b1904b4806255f.jpg

The poll I ran on Twitter has the figure at 49% (15% more chance of failing if you're not on eFests!).

Screenshot_20191008-131223_Twitter.thumb.jpg.c71b5fa6cca75c83e768a51418f0f587.jpg

So what do you reckon the true figure is? I think it's around 400k.

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I've found myself increasingly wondering about this. It would be interesting to know what the total number of active registrations would look like if you had to re-register every year (although I'm not saying that would be preferable, having had nightmare scenarios before where a group member hadn't checked their registration and found it had lapsed after the deadline!)

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I suppose the other question is also how many devices/connections are being used? I used two laptops and an iPad on home WiFi, Mrs J was using her work laptop on a VPN and I had my phone on 4G. That's at least three separate connections, if 400,000 people are all using two/three each then you are going to get close to a million unique attempts to access the site.

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Just now, DareToDibble said:

I can't help but feel 400k feels a bit low. Of course I have no proof whatsoever that this is wrong. I'm using the logic that it seems like a lot less than 1 in 4 get tickets. I wouldn't be surprised if it was more along the lines of 1mil.

400k does seem low - but then add in the fact that most people are running multiple sessions - 400k could easy be doubled/trebled/quadroupled etc....

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1 minute ago, Hugh Jass said:

I suppose the other question is also how many devices/connections are being used? I used two laptops and an iPad on home WiFi, Mrs J was using her work laptop on a VPN and I had my phone on 4G. That's at least three separate connections, if 400,000 people are all using two/three each then you are going to get close to a million unique attempts to access the site.

what he said :)

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2 minutes ago, pauladam said:

400k does seem low - but then add in the fact that most people are running multiple sessions - 400k could easy be doubled/trebled/quadroupled etc....

Who do you think you are coming in here and speaking perfectly common sense? :D 

But yes that does sound right actually. I think I was sat here with 5 devices so if everyone else is doing that we're at 2mil attempts to access the site which would explain the issues.

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Between 1m-2m trying I reckon.

I know peoples circles are different but as someone who has a lot of friends / connections with the music industry - or I am in circles that live and breathe music and events, it really does feel like bloody everyone is trying / wants to go.

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The 2.4 million figure can be easily ignored as it'll include a lot of old and duplicate registrations. For example after a fuck up last year, I've been advising anyone who'll listen to create a new registration rather than amend their existing one.

My guess is that the number this year would have been somewhere between 200,000 and 500,000, and that most other years it'll be maybe 10-20% less than that. But that's total guesswork based mostly on anecdotal information so I could be miles off in either direction.

Truth is, it's impossible for us to know, and I don't see a way that even the festival/seetickets themselves can be confident to within about 20% - they might know that X amount of people are still left trying by the end of the sale, but they can't realistically know what that represents - if people are using multiple connections or if a group of 100 odd is just trying for their last 2 tickets for example then that'll artificially inflate the number.

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I wouldn't be surprised if the number is around the 500,000 mark taking into consideration all those trying plus those giving it a go on behalf of others with no intention of attending (friends, family members, etc). To me that number seems more realistic than the misleading 2.4m figure that was published on Sunday. We'll never truly know.

Edit: when I say 500,000, I mean that's the number of individuals trying, not the number of open browser sessions, devices, etc. 

Edited by Supernintendo Chalmers
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Just now, DareToDibble said:

Who do you think you are coming in here and speaking perfectly common sense? :D 

But yes that does sound right actually. I think I was sat here with 5 devices so if everyone else is doing that we're at 2mil attempts to access the site which would explain the issues.

I (coughs) had a few more than that - (I work in IT and have access to a LOT of computers all with their own dedicated public IPs) and got nowhere :(

I'm hoping for some of your luck last year @DareToDibble

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3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Between 1m-2m trying I reckon.

I know peoples circles are different but as someone who has a lot of friends / connections with the music industry - or I am in circles that live and breathe music and events, it really does feel like bloody everyone is trying / wants to go.

It was just one coder hacking the site...

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4 minutes ago, pauladam said:

I (coughs) had a few more than that - (I work in IT and have access to a LOT of computers all with their own dedicated public IPs) and got nowhere :(

I'm hoping for some of your luck last year @DareToDibble

Just shows how it's complete luck doesn't it.

I know how you feel mate... even entering the competitions you feel like you have no chance but it obviously can happen! 

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I'd say 500-700k people (complete guess). Looking round, and from my own experience, 1 in 4 chance (i.e. 1 group out of every 4 trying got them) seems reasonable. I'd say those roped in to try on others behalf are probably outweighed by people who get tickets without trying. Then maybe increasing the number as I'd say people on here/i know probably are biased towards better success rate.

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7 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I know peoples circles are different but as someone who has a lot of friends / connections with the music industry - or I am in circles that live and breathe music and events, it really does feel like bloody everyone is trying / wants to go.

I know a lot of people who live and breathe music, events and festivals - promoters, party hosts etc. and a lot of them are no longer interested in Glastonbury, favouring smaller festivals.

I mean, it's a really difficult thing to measure and if we base our guess on people we know we're going to come up with wildly different answers.

Our glasto group and friends of friends we see every year got 6 coach and 11 general and 5 missed out. 

So, based on nothing/anecdotal evidence, I'd guess about 400K people wanted the 135K tickets.

 

 

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