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Primavera Sound 2020

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Yes, only with vaccine it will get back to normal. And that is spring / summer 2021 at earliest. Before that, everyone will be afraid of the second wave, and not really sure governments will allow for massive gatherings / tourism etc.

 

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Yes, the very best case for a cure/vaccine rollout is early 2021. And that's being optimistic.

If that's right, I don't know how the events, music and sport industry will be able to recover from 18 months of feeble income, reliant on TV revenues, reduced sponsorship etc. The only ones that might be able to rebuild are the ones rolling in cash like football and F1.

And Coachella will have to be cancelled twice. 

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43 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Do you think that will be for 18 months (when a vaccine is expected to be ready)? If so, that's a bleak outlook for the economy e.g. Barcelona makes €160m a year in gate receipts.

The bigger the football clubs, the less they need the money from the gates; it´s only 15-20% of the revenues. It´s the TV money plus the advertising partners that they are dependent on. That´s why they don´t have much of a problem with crowd-less games. The TV money will only be paid if the TV has games to broadcast, crowd or no crowd.

Oh, and if they don´t get the ball rolling, it will become very very difficult for a lot of smaller clubs. I don´t know how it is in England but in Germany, only a handful (and a very small hand at that) of clubs are rolling in cash. The other ones are staring right into the abyss already.

Edited by Chilly Toad

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Just now, Chilly Toad said:

The bigger the football clubs, the less they need the money from the gates; it´s only 15-20% of the revenues. It´s the TV money plus the advertising partners that they are dependent on. That´s why they don´t have much of a problem with crowd-less games. The TV money will only be paid if the TV has games to broadcast, crowd or no crowd.

I meant that the figures are so high, they must generate a lot of wider economic benefit. There will be a huge amount of pressure to admit fans by the Autumn if it can be done safely.

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1 minute ago, Chilly Toad said:

Do the big football clubs care about a wider economic benefit? The one thing they want to save first, foremost and exclusively are their own butts.

No, they don't, you're right. But the local community (the football club is an important part of local identity), the local government and all the other businesses that rely on games taking place all do.

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This is potentially hugely significant.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#ixzz6HnLAnpXG

The same key UK epidemiologist who forecast 500,000 deaths in the UK is now saying his model was wrong and it will be under 20,000 and hospital capacity won't be breached.

If he's right (and he's obviously discredited himself by changing his forecast so dramatically, albeit was good he didn't stubbornly stick to his original projections) then some semblance of normal life can resume earlier than thought.

EDIT: I really hope Primavera haven't reached any decision yet. If he's right, it starts to ease in Easter and the mortality numbers are far, far lower than feared, this could give them the confidence to go ahead in August.

Edited by xxialac
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fuck man, ever stop to think, wow, we’re talking about mortality rates, on a festival forum?

 

these are such strange times 

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Just now, Ohjesus said:

fuck man, ever stop to think, wow, we’re talking about mortality rates, on a festival forum?

 

these are such strange times 

Totally. I still can't wrap my brain around it.

The scenes in e.g .New York hospitals are like something you would expect to see in a third world country but it's not - it's happening in the richest country in the world.

Sounds trite but music is one of those things that brings us together. And I'm optimistic when big cultural events do finally occur, we can be more respectful to our fellow human than before, irrespective of differences in nationality, race etc.

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China getting back to some kind of normality;  "... each Chinese airline is only allowed to maintain one route to any specific country with no more than one flight per week; each foreign airline is only allowed to maintain one route to China with no more than one weekly flight. ... "

This is how you will see it in western country too, slightly reducing restrictions, still regulations on mass events, etc. This will go on until we either have vaccination or the population get herd immunity. No sane government will take the risk of mass gatherings before that.

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24 minutes ago, puckno said:

China getting back to some kind of normality;  "... each Chinese airline is only allowed to maintain one route to any specific country with no more than one flight per week; each foreign airline is only allowed to maintain one route to China with no more than one weekly flight. ... "

This is how you will see it in western country too, slightly reducing restrictions, still regulations on mass events, etc. This will go on until we either have vaccination or the population get herd immunity. No sane government will take the risk of mass gatherings before that.

Yes, completely. Though part of the reason for the 'one overseas weekly flight' rule is that we are near the global peak of Coronavirus.

The decision wasn't just based on what was going on within China but the global situation (which will be improving each month past the peak).

China can't relax their rules on aviation in the midst of a global crisis even if things are better domestically.

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9 hours ago, xxialac said:

This is potentially hugely significant.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#ixzz6HnLAnpXG

The same key UK epidemiologist who forecast 500,000 deaths in the UK is now saying his model was wrong and it will be under 20,000 and hospital capacity won't be breached.

If he's right (and he's obviously discredited himself by changing his forecast so dramatically, albeit was good he didn't stubbornly stick to his original projections) then some semblance of normal life can resume earlier than thought.

EDIT: I really hope Primavera haven't reached any decision yet. If he's right, it starts to ease in Easter and the mortality numbers are far, far lower than feared, this could give them the confidence to go ahead in August.

He's now clarified that he didn't say his model was wrong.

The 500,000 figure is what they believed was likely in the UK if we went on with normal life. He's even said that they think Covid-19 is actually more contagious than when they calculated the figure.

The 20,000 is what he believes is likely if we maintain the social distancing/isolation measures. Given the huge difference, it's quite possible normal life won't be "risked" for some considerable time.

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8 minutes ago, bluenova said:

He's now clarified that he didn't say his model was wrong.

The 500,000 figure is what they believed was likely in the UK if we went on with normal life. He's even said that they think Covid-19 is actually more contagious than when they calculated the figure.

The 20,000 is what he believes is likely if we maintain the social distancing/isolation measures. Given the huge difference, it's quite possible normal life won't be "risked" for some considerable time.

Too right, I should have read it properly.

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9 hours ago, xxialac said:

Too right, I should have read it properly.

It just wasn't very clear. He posted a clarification on twitter last night as a lot of people had interpreted the story the same way.

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8 minutes ago, DDave said:

All Points East gone now. 

Only a matter of time now. 

Not convinced they are comparable.

APE were always going to struggle to rearrange, whereas Primavera seems to be doing their utmost to reschedule and will want as much time as possible to work out the logistics and risks.

Wouldn't want to be making the call!

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18 hours ago, Ohjesus said:

fuck man, ever stop to think, wow, we’re talking about mortality rates, on a festival forum?

 

these are such strange times 

This is the New Normal.

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Just cancelled my AirBnB, so relax guys... it will all be good now within the next hour.

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5 hours ago, DDave said:

All Points East gone now. 

Only a matter of time now. 

Re: the statement - i didn’t even think about the emergency services not being available. Blimey. 

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14 hours ago, Ohjesus said:

Re: the statement - i didn’t even think about the emergency services not being available. Blimey. 

That seems to be one of the main reasons glastonbury had to call it

it will be the case everywhere. There is no PS20, its just a matter of time

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On 3/9/2020 at 10:30 AM, n=Nowheretohide said:

When everything goes according to original plan are you gonna admit then here that you are paranoid hypochondriac who need help   ? 

We need Nowheretohide to come back and tell us everything is gonna be alright.

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