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Primavera Sound 2020


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This is potentially hugely significant.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#ixzz6HnLAnpXG

The same key UK epidemiologist who forecast 500,000 deaths in the UK is now saying his model was wrong and it will be under 20,000 and hospital capacity won't be breached.

If he's right (and he's obviously discredited himself by changing his forecast so dramatically, albeit was good he didn't stubbornly stick to his original projections) then some semblance of normal life can resume earlier than thought.

EDIT: I really hope Primavera haven't reached any decision yet. If he's right, it starts to ease in Easter and the mortality numbers are far, far lower than feared, this could give them the confidence to go ahead in August.

Edited by xxialac
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Just now, Ohjesus said:

fuck man, ever stop to think, wow, we’re talking about mortality rates, on a festival forum?

 

these are such strange times 

Totally. I still can't wrap my brain around it.

The scenes in e.g .New York hospitals are like something you would expect to see in a third world country but it's not - it's happening in the richest country in the world.

Sounds trite but music is one of those things that brings us together. And I'm optimistic when big cultural events do finally occur, we can be more respectful to our fellow human than before, irrespective of differences in nationality, race etc.

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China getting back to some kind of normality;  "... each Chinese airline is only allowed to maintain one route to any specific country with no more than one flight per week; each foreign airline is only allowed to maintain one route to China with no more than one weekly flight. ... "

This is how you will see it in western country too, slightly reducing restrictions, still regulations on mass events, etc. This will go on until we either have vaccination or the population get herd immunity. No sane government will take the risk of mass gatherings before that.

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24 minutes ago, puckno said:

China getting back to some kind of normality;  "... each Chinese airline is only allowed to maintain one route to any specific country with no more than one flight per week; each foreign airline is only allowed to maintain one route to China with no more than one weekly flight. ... "

This is how you will see it in western country too, slightly reducing restrictions, still regulations on mass events, etc. This will go on until we either have vaccination or the population get herd immunity. No sane government will take the risk of mass gatherings before that.

Yes, completely. Though part of the reason for the 'one overseas weekly flight' rule is that we are near the global peak of Coronavirus.

The decision wasn't just based on what was going on within China but the global situation (which will be improving each month past the peak).

China can't relax their rules on aviation in the midst of a global crisis even if things are better domestically.

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9 hours ago, xxialac said:

This is potentially hugely significant.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#ixzz6HnLAnpXG

The same key UK epidemiologist who forecast 500,000 deaths in the UK is now saying his model was wrong and it will be under 20,000 and hospital capacity won't be breached.

If he's right (and he's obviously discredited himself by changing his forecast so dramatically, albeit was good he didn't stubbornly stick to his original projections) then some semblance of normal life can resume earlier than thought.

EDIT: I really hope Primavera haven't reached any decision yet. If he's right, it starts to ease in Easter and the mortality numbers are far, far lower than feared, this could give them the confidence to go ahead in August.

He's now clarified that he didn't say his model was wrong.

The 500,000 figure is what they believed was likely in the UK if we went on with normal life. He's even said that they think Covid-19 is actually more contagious than when they calculated the figure.

The 20,000 is what he believes is likely if we maintain the social distancing/isolation measures. Given the huge difference, it's quite possible normal life won't be "risked" for some considerable time.

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8 minutes ago, bluenova said:

He's now clarified that he didn't say his model was wrong.

The 500,000 figure is what they believed was likely in the UK if we went on with normal life. He's even said that they think Covid-19 is actually more contagious than when they calculated the figure.

The 20,000 is what he believes is likely if we maintain the social distancing/isolation measures. Given the huge difference, it's quite possible normal life won't be "risked" for some considerable time.

Too right, I should have read it properly.

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8 minutes ago, DDave said:

All Points East gone now. 

Only a matter of time now. 

Not convinced they are comparable.

APE were always going to struggle to rearrange, whereas Primavera seems to be doing their utmost to reschedule and will want as much time as possible to work out the logistics and risks.

Wouldn't want to be making the call!

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On 3/9/2020 at 10:30 AM, n=Nowheretohide said:

When everything goes according to original plan are you gonna admit then here that you are paranoid hypochondriac who need help   ? 

We need Nowheretohide to come back and tell us everything is gonna be alright.

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12 minutes ago, n=Nowheretohide said:

Nahh doesn't look like there will be Primavera this year...I will lose lots of money and really wanted it to happen...but I don't trust anything that who said about covid19 all this looks like biological warfare...

 

And Ladies and Gentlemen, finally we have it, the massive u-turn. Now with added conspiracy theory.

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