Primavera Sound 2020

[xxialac]

20 minutes ago, charlierc said:

I think China will have to be studied closely. If there is a second wave, then we'll know this is going to be an extensive thing potentially here to stay.

I'm aware that certain people in the US establishment are adamant they have to get everything back up & running as normal by Easter. But I fear that's just being too eager.

Only those trying to win an election think it will be ok to get things back up and running by Easter in the US. It's almost as though they care more about their own power than the health of the world.

[charlierc]

4 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Only those trying to win an election think it will be ok to get things back up and running by Easter in the US. It's almost as though they care more about their own power than the health of the world.

Its the same people who barely a few weeks ago were saying it was a media/Democrat hoax designed to undermine their 2020 election bid and create the conditions for economic imbalance. So they're being consistently unhelpful if nothing else.

[xxialac]

On 3/23/2020 at 10:46 AM, daveje said:

Don't bet on it. Infections might be getting a bit more under control, but the fatality numbers suggest health care systems getting overwhelmed.

You were spot on. Fatalities are up again today, having been falling (though infections are down at least).

[jj200]

1 hour ago, xxialac said:

You were spot on. Fatalities are up again today, having been falling (though infections are down at least).

Maybe it could have been a blip

[daveje]

1 hour ago, xxialac said:

You were spot on. Fatalities are up again today, having been falling (though infections are down at least).

Yeah, here in the Netherlands the fatalities are increasing faster than the infection rate, and critical cases are being distributed to hospitals around the country since local healthcare is getting overrun.

I know we're all trying to be hopeful, but single days are just blips. In either direction. Trends always take time before they're apparent and confirmed.

[xxialac]

Local government sentiment is that the peak in Catalonia is likely around the end of April and the confinement measures until mid-May or into June.

August Primavera wouldn't seem crazy on that basis.

The football season starts mid-August. If they are not able to have Primavera then, then there will also be no FC Barcelona games (or any La Liga action). Ditto thousands of other things with mass participation. 

That said, September or October might make more sense and give a bit more of a buffer.

 

[Ohjesus]

Well let’s hope they’ve got another weekend booked then!

[Memory Man]

The longer this goes on for, the longer i think they’re just holiding off for the spanish authorities to call it off officially so they can get out of their obligations

i don’t blame them, i would do the same

they cannot announce cancellation until its confirmed it will not be going ahead by a decision that wasn’t the organiser’s choice. 

It seems very, very unlikely at this stage that any of the US based artists would be in a position to travel to europe in Aug / sept 2020. Doesnt mean 100% no festival,  but means significant lineup changes that could make primavera 2020 not viable when taken together. 

Many (not here) would be asking for refunds (or partial refunds) if there’s a postponement with a massively reduced bill. Its very risky not just for this year but could damage the primavera brand long term if they piss off a large contingent of their customers.

It will be cancelled outright imo we just have to wait

Edited March 25, 2020 by Memory Man

[Memory Man]

1 hour ago, Ohjesus said:

Well let’s hope they’ve got another weekend booked then!

The fact there’s no noise or rumour (or hotel soft booking) about this suggests it is end of august or bust most likely.

in that case, it is more than likely bust at this stage

[Andrej]

The trend I am seeing lately is everyone just postponing to 2021, not even trying to go for later in the year, guess everyone thinks it will be risky still. Seeing all these major Arena tours; Bon Iver, Dua Lipa, Harry Styles etc, all postponing almost 12 in advance, to early or spring 2021. I guess everyone is simply deleting 2020 and turning to 2021.

What a horrible year.

 

[DarthSaul]

22 minutes ago, Andrej said:

The trend I am seeing lately is everyone just postponing to 2021, not even trying to go for later in the year, guess everyone thinks it will be risky still. Seeing all these major Arena tours; Bon Iver, Dua Lipa, Harry Styles etc, all postponing almost 12 in advance, to early or spring 2021. I guess everyone is simply deleting 2020 and turning to 2021.

What a horrible year.

 

Reckon it must be near on impossible for arena sized shows (and smaller) to get insured in 2020 now 

[xxialac]

53 minutes ago, Andrej said:

The trend I am seeing lately is everyone just postponing to 2021, not even trying to go for later in the year, guess everyone thinks it will be risky still. Seeing all these major Arena tours; Bon Iver, Dua Lipa, Harry Styles etc, all postponing almost 12 in advance, to early or spring 2021. I guess everyone is simply deleting 2020 and turning to 2021.

What a horrible year.

 

If you look at this website on the other hand, of the last 8 news items about Summer festivals, only 1 is cancelled and the other 7 are postponed to Autumn. 

[TheFullShaboo]

9 hours ago, xxialac said:

If you look at this website on the other hand, of the last 8 news items about Summer festivals, only 1 is cancelled and the other 7 are postponed to Autumn. 

Yeah it feels like every festival seems to be postponing to September at the moment. If all of this does blow over by then then I’m going to be in for one hell of a month. 
 

4 festivals in 4 weekends to salvage summer doesn’t seem that bad right now! 

[daveje]

I feel like Mr Doom in here, but that seems optimistic. Even if the current round of social distancing helps get the virus under some level of control, I suspect it'll be a good while before governments license the kinds of events that are almost guaranteed to spread the virus again. For instance, massive international music festivals with tens of thousands of people.

[xxialac]

15 minutes ago, daveje said:

I feel like Mr Doom in here, but that seems optimistic. Even if the current round of social distancing helps get the virus under some level of control, I suspect it'll be a good while before governments license the kinds of events that are almost guaranteed to spread the virus again. For instance, massive international music festivals with tens of thousands of people.

Well you're right probably but that also means that there will be no football (a way of life in Spain), other sports, international conferences, office working and normal transportation in September. Possible but will decimate the economy.

So whilst music festivals might seem a low priority to government, if they allow FC Barcelona to play as normal they should allow Primavera. 

Can imagine a situation in future where there is mass screening for high temperatures etc at the gates (with big queues but doable) and people will by law have to record symptoms on a database and those with a symptom forbidden from going out. Might allow these mass events to go ahead eventually...

[lukatej]

13 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Well you're right probably but that also means that there will be no football (a way of life in Spain), other sports, international conferences, office working and normal transportation in September. Possible but will decimate the economy.

So whilst music festivals might seem a low priority to government, if they allow FC Barcelona to play as normal they should allow Primavera. 

Can imagine a situation in future where there is mass screening for high temperatures etc at the gates (with big queues but doable) and people will by law have to record symptoms on a database and those with a symptom forbidden from going out. Might allow these mass events to go ahead eventually...

In my opinion...

they will allow them to play, but with an empty stadium, just like in other countries.

Fans will need to watch TV to see the match.

[xxialac]

3 minutes ago, lukatej said:

In my opinion...

they will allow them to play, but with an empty stadium, just like in other countries.

Fans will need to watch TV to see the match.

Do you think that will be for 18 months (when a vaccine is expected to be ready)? If so, that's a bleak outlook for the economy e.g. Barcelona makes €160m a year in gate receipts.

[JedTheHumanoid]

15 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Do you think that will be for 18 months (when a vaccine is expected to be ready)? If so, that's a bleak outlook for the economy e.g. Barcelona makes €160m a year in gate receipts.

very sad to say, but I think this will be the case (until a vaccine, or maybe some treatment/cure before that).

Things will gradually get back to normal, but in this gradual process, there are many steps before allowing 100K football stadiums and huge international festivals.

it will start with getting the economy on its feet - schools, offices, stores and malls, maybe smaller venues will be allowed to have shows with limited capacity, football matches without crowd (tickets are a lot of money, broadcast rights are a lot more), many things will go back to normal before primavera.

it will take more than 6 months till you can have large gatherings, and more important for us- flights without limitations on tourists. the risk for a second wave will simply be too high

 

Unless a cure will be found and change everything

[Andrej]

Yes, only with vaccine it will get back to normal. And that is spring / summer 2021 at earliest. Before that, everyone will be afraid of the second wave, and not really sure governments will allow for massive gatherings / tourism etc.

 

[thespiral]

Isle Of Wight and Download both cancelled today. Both mid June. No surprise.

[xxialac]

Yes, the very best case for a cure/vaccine rollout is early 2021. And that's being optimistic.

If that's right, I don't know how the events, music and sport industry will be able to recover from 18 months of feeble income, reliant on TV revenues, reduced sponsorship etc. The only ones that might be able to rebuild are the ones rolling in cash like football and F1.

And Coachella will have to be cancelled twice. 

[Chilly Toad]

43 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Do you think that will be for 18 months (when a vaccine is expected to be ready)? If so, that's a bleak outlook for the economy e.g. Barcelona makes €160m a year in gate receipts.

The bigger the football clubs, the less they need the money from the gates; it´s only 15-20% of the revenues. It´s the TV money plus the advertising partners that they are dependent on. That´s why they don´t have much of a problem with crowd-less games. The TV money will only be paid if the TV has games to broadcast, crowd or no crowd.

Oh, and if they don´t get the ball rolling, it will become very very difficult for a lot of smaller clubs. I don´t know how it is in England but in Germany, only a handful (and a very small hand at that) of clubs are rolling in cash. The other ones are staring right into the abyss already.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Chilly Toad

[xxialac]

Just now, Chilly Toad said:

The bigger the football clubs, the less they need the money from the gates; it´s only 15-20% of the revenues. It´s the TV money plus the advertising partners that they are dependent on. That´s why they don´t have much of a problem with crowd-less games. The TV money will only be paid if the TV has games to broadcast, crowd or no crowd.

I meant that the figures are so high, they must generate a lot of wider economic benefit. There will be a huge amount of pressure to admit fans by the Autumn if it can be done safely.

[Chilly Toad]

Do the big football clubs care about a wider economic benefit? The one thing they want to save first, foremost and exclusively are their own butts.

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, Chilly Toad said:

Do the big football clubs care about a wider economic benefit? The one thing they want to save first, foremost and exclusively are their own butts.

No, they don't, you're right. But the local community (the football club is an important part of local identity), the local government and all the other businesses that rely on games taking place all do.