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Brexit at Glasto?

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Surprised there are no comments on the European results. Is it all too depressing with Toady Nigel et al?

Tories and Labour are screwed.

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I think that if Corbyn were to honourably fall on his sword tomorrow it would be for the best for the Labour party in that it would (1) resolve the question of having a leader whose true opinion on Brexit can't be stated because it so dramatically differs from the membership and electorate and (2) present an opportunity for the party to present an alternative and clearly stated direction and regain the narrative rather than fall victim to it.

 

The results have been pretty much exactly as I was expecting, although I had hoped for a greater green surge than we have seen both here and across the continent (nice as it is, I was hoping for 1989 level green surge helping to move the agenda).  I wonder how the Change UK people are feeling tonight?  Their gambit looks to have failed pretty miserably and now some established political names are looking down the barrel of having little chance of retaining their seats in any future election.

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6 hours ago, Spindles said:

I wonder how the Change UK people are feeling tonight?  Their gambit looks to have failed pretty miserably and now some established political names are looking down the barrel of having little chance of retaining their seats in any future election.

yesterday Heidi Allen was talking about them changing into LibDems.

It's their best bet I reckon for not having a change of jobs.

Edited by eFestivals

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Sadly corbyn gambled by not going full on remain and demanding a vote on any deal to leave. An opportunity lost. Farage can bluster all he wants, there is still a majority not wanting to leave, it’s just that the remain vote is split between several parties. It’s like the nationalists in Scotland, they win elections but opposition to independence is fortunately still in the majority. 

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9 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Sadly corbyn gambled by not going full on remain and demanding a vote on any deal to leave. An opportunity lost. Farage can bluster all he wants, there is still a majority not wanting to leave, it’s just that the remain vote is split between several parties. It’s like the nationalists in Scotland, they win elections but opposition to independence is fortunately still in the majority. 

.... all true, but sadly I'm not certain SNP would lose  the next independence vote; a vote for independence would seem like the most likely way for Scotland to remain/rejoin the European union. At least wee Nicola is bound to suggest this in the next vote. Not saying that's the route I would like to go down, but remainers in Scotland, who also wish to stay in the union, are now threatened with the real possibility & double whammy of losing both, despite being the proven majority twice already. 

Edited by Tranquility of Solitude

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14 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Sadly corbyn gambled by not going full on remain and demanding a vote on any deal to leave. An opportunity lost. Farage can bluster all he wants, there is still a majority not wanting to leave, it’s just that the remain vote is split between several parties. It’s like the nationalists in Scotland, they win elections but opposition to independence is fortunately still in the majority. 

With some votes still to be declared, parties with an unambiguously pro leave stance got 44% of the vote. Parties with an unambiguously pro remain stance got 40%. Labour came second amongst both leave and remain voters. And remain had a bigger turnout. So I don't think its clear enough to say what there is a majority for. Its certainly well within the margin of error 

Edited by Scott129

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27 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

yesterday Heidi Allen was talking about them changing into LibDems.

It's their best bet I reckon for not having a change of jobs.

The complicating factor is that leak of a ChangeUK strategy document outlying their strategy of destroying the LibDems, which has probably killed off any good will between the two. Honestly, ChangeUK have about 2 MPs that would be worth keeping, the rest the LibDems are better off without. 

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11 minutes ago, Tranquility of Solitude said:

a vote for independence would seem like the most likely way for Scotland to remain/rejoin the European union.

it would also require Sturgeon to say that all economic things that are bad about brexit are good about indy. That's going to be a difficult sell, I think.

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2 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

With some votes still to be declared, parties with an unambiguously pro leave stance got 44% of the vote. Parties with an unambiguously pro remain stance got 40%. Labour came second amongst both leave and remain voters. So I don't think its clear enough to say what there is a majority for. Its certainly well within the margin of error 

Yeah, it's depressing. From a northern perspective, I fear being doomed to being dominated by the Brexit arty for decades to come if brexit gets cancelled. Even the coverage of the election is basically- "look what happened in London! The LibDems did well, it proves there must be a second referendum!", where as here in the north it was kind of the opposite story, and looking at the results up north, anyone concluding a second referendum is a great idea is crackers! If there is a second referendum, or brexit gets cancelled, the area is ripe for right wing populists to exploit with a very easy narrative.

Also I don't exactly get how we'd even have a referendum- the Tories have no choice but to elect a hard brexiteer, who after these results has no choice but to pursue a no deal style brexit (or they will be obliterated). The leadership contest isn't up finished til July, then its summer recess, then they're back in September for a week or two, then it's conference season, then before you know it its October. If Boris doesn't put forward any legislation before summer, there can be no second referendum as there will be no bill to amend (even if there were the numbers in parliament, which there aren't. May getting forced out of office as soon as she proposed a vote on a second referendum, would indicate one was never really possible.

I had always though the best chance was that Kyle compromise thing whereby they'd vote for Mays deal  under condition of a second ref, but now that's completely off the table because Boris (or whoever) will only put forward no deal.

If I were Labour I'd change tact and declare the Tories have until October to put forward an acceptable brexit or they will vote to revoke Article 50, i don't get why PV are still pushing for a second referendum at this point? Surely they have to switch to revoke?

I am depressed about all of this because I don't really see a way out. If it's revoked, are 50% of the population really going to be fine with that? What's to stop them voting for a Tory party or Brexit party that offers just withdrawing from the EU again? If there's a second referendum and remain won (which again is no sure thing- what remain figure is campaigning in the north?), why should/would Leave accept it when remain has spent the last 3 years not accepting the result while saying referendums don't really count? We're on a gloomy path ether way.

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7 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

From a northern perspective, I fear being doomed to being dominated by the Brexit arty for decades to come if brexit gets cancelled.

Yeah I think you're right. And these are the sorts of seats Labour needs to win so its not as clear as saying "if labour backs remain it will walk an election". Peterborough by-election will be very telling, its a seat labour with its current strategy could pick up because the tories and BP will split the hard brexit vote. 

7 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

If Boris doesn't put forward any legislation before summer, there can be no second referendum as there will be no bill to amend

I think there would need to be a no confidence motion with labour backing a second ref in the following election and winning. Its realistically possible for the tories to vote down their government if they insist on no deal. 

8 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Surely they have to switch to revoke?

They would have to extend or revoke to have time for a second ref but I don't think politically you could just revoke without then having another referendum

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9 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Yeah, it's depressing. From a northern perspective, I fear being doomed to being dominated by the Brexit arty for decades to come if brexit gets cancelled. Even the coverage of the election is basically- "look what happened in London! The LibDems did well, it proves there must be a second referendum!", where as here in the north it was kind of the opposite story, and looking at the results up north, anyone concluding a second referendum is a great idea is crackers! 

In the NW there are 3 Brexit MEPs, 2 Lib Dem and 1 Green, so a dead heat between the unambiguous parties. The other two seats went to the leave-leaning Labour party.

I know that the rest of the North tells a worse story, but I'm sick of being told I live in a Brexit heartland, when I live in no such place.

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2 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Yeah I think you're right. And these are the sorts of seats Labour needs to win so its not as clear as saying "if labour backs remain it will walk an election". Peterborough by-election will be very telling, its a seat labour with its current strategy could pick up because the tories and BP will split the hard brexit vote. 

I think there would need to be a no confidence motion with labour backing a second ref in the following election and winning. Its realistically possible for the tories to vote down their government if they insist on no deal. 

They would have to extend or revoke to have time for a second ref but I don't think politically you could just revoke without then having another referendum

 

Yep, anyone saying there's a simple solution for labour is delusional- they're facing a choice of alienate their northern and welsh vote for decades, or alienate their city bases- it' pick your poison. And people crowing about that- well, that results in a splintered left wing, which could result in a brexiteer/ERG election win followed by a no deal brexit.

re: a second ref via a no confidence motion- After these results though are enough Tory MP's really going to risk voting down the government? (Plus again, time wise things are tight- it's almost summer recess). I used to think that was a possibility, but after last night I just don't see it happening 

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4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I know that the rest of the North tells a worse story, but I'm sick of being told I live in a Brexit heartland, when I live in no such place.

The north west vote was inflated by big cities like Manchester and Liverpool that are heavily pro remain. There are areas like mine (Barrow in Furness), Wigan etc that voted massively to leave and could easily vote brexit party in an election where brexit hasnt been delivered. 

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

And we made Tommy Robinson lose his deposit. It's not all from up north.

I know, thank god for this. Tommy Robinson is beyond extreme and i'm not suggesting that northern areas would vote for him

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3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

And we made Tommy Robinson lose his deposit. It's not all grim up north.

Agreed- there is a very strong left wing tradition in the north that I like!

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Just now, Scott129 said:

The north west vote was inflated by big cities like Manchester and Liverpool that are heavily pro remain. There are areas like mine (Barrow in Furness), Wigan etc that voted massively to leave and could easily vote brexit party in an election where brexit hasnt been delivered. 

I know, thank god for this. Tommy Robinson is beyond extreme and i'm not suggesting that northern areas would vote for him

Ha, I live near barrow-in-furness,- yep the numbers were grim. The worry is if the brexit vote carried through to the general election, especially if the Tories and Farage do some sort of deal to mainly target labour seats. Even if there was a second referendum, and even if remain won, what's to stop them running on a platform to ignore the second referendum result and just leave anyway?

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1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

Even if there was a second referendum, and even if remain won, what's to stop them running on a platform to ignore the second referendum result and just leave anyway?

Yeah there isn't really. I personally think we should have just taken a soft brexit and ran early on when leavers would have been happy just to leave and most remainers were happy to accept the result. The problem is so much money and attentionhas been funnelled into the extremes of no deal/no brexit and the tories are set to go for no deal that its probably no longer an option. 

God knows how we get out of this mess haha

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7 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Even if there was a second referendum, and even if remain won, what's to stop them running on a platform to ignore the second referendum result and just leave anyway?

if there's a 2nd referendum it's very likely to be legally binding - which will work if it's a vote on a specific plan. 

 

37 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

am depressed about all of this because I don't really see a way out. If it's revoked, are 50% of the population really going to be fine with that? What's to stop them voting for a Tory party or Brexit party that offers just withdrawing from the EU again? If there's a second referendum and remain won (which again is no sure thing- what remain figure is campaigning in the north?), why should/would Leave accept it when remain has spent the last 3 years not accepting the result while saying referendums don't really count? We're on a gloomy path ether way.

the genie can't be put back in the bottle but it can be killed off - but that's only possible with another vote.

39 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Also I don't exactly get how we'd even have a referendum- the Tories have no choice but to elect a hard brexiteer, who after these results has no choice but to pursue a no deal style brexit (or they will be obliterated).

the likes of Boris are making the same promises that May did - and it'll end the same way. It's not deliverable without overriding parliament, and it's exceedingly unlikely any PM would do that*.

(* perhaps Raab, he's stupid enough) 

And they can't risk a GE because that's guaranteed to let farage in at the expense of the tories.

In the end the only way that even the tories can neutralise farage and brexit is with a 2nd vote. If brexit is on the losing side then farage is fucked. Brexit can't happen without that public majority; even Farage isn't stupid enough to think that him winning a GE with around 35% of the vote would give a mandate to brexit.

 

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9 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Yeah there isn't really. I personally think we should have just taken a soft brexit and ran early on when leavers would have been happy just to leave and most remainers were happy to accept the result. The problem is so much money and attentionhas been funnelled into the extremes of no deal/no brexit and the tories are set to go for no deal that its probably no longer an option. 

God knows how we get out of this mess haha

Yep, I would have settled for soft brexit, but now that's off the table and it's all become so polarised whatever solution is going to hack off a huge chunk of the population for yonks. I voted remain, but always found it cheeky that remainers lost the referendum but didn't see why they should compromise one bit! 

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I honestly have begun to think the only option we have of ending this total shitshow is to let Nigel Farage lead the negotiations and when he comes back with a grand total of fuck all then we can finally say see we gave your crackpot a shot, he couldn't get a magical unicorn deal either so can you all just get back in your boxes and forget all this utter stupidity and go back to dealing with the real problems facing the world and the country like climate change and the inability of our citizens to be able to critically analyse information and make a sensible decision.*

*This is way harsher and more unforgiving than I usually am but having listened to a bunch of fucking idiots from the Brexit Party spouting bollocks last night I really want a solution to getting them out of the way forever so we can go back to real issues like why in one of the richest countries in the world are so many people having to go to foodbanks. 

Edited by gigpusher
typo

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1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

I would have settled for soft brexit

the problem with that is: the brexiters wouldn't have done - so it never was the compromise that's claimed for it.

3 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

always found it cheeky that remainers lost the referendum but didn't see why they should compromise one bit! 

do you think Jez should compromise on austerity, and vote thru tory cuts? After all, 'the people' have voted for those cuts. :P 

And I'd say that remainers were willing to compromise. 86% of voters at the last GE backed parties that said they'd do brexit, and didn't flock to the solid-remainer LibDems.

And then the remainers mostly kept their silence and let events happen, for the tories to work it out and put it before us.

When the hrdcore brexiters can't vote for brexit, I can't see any reason at all for why the remainers should give it greater support.

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1 hour ago, Tranquility of Solitude said:

.... all true, but sadly I'm not certain SNP would lose  the next independence vote; a vote for independence would seem like the most likely way for Scotland to remain/rejoin the European union. At least wee Nicola is bound to suggest this in the next vote. Not saying that's the route I would like to go down, but remainers in Scotland, who also wish to stay in the union, are now threatened with the real possibility & double whammy of losing both, despite being the proven majority twice already. 

There are still a lot of people that would be passionately against Scottish independence.

Despite what the bookies say I think Boris Johnson doesn't have a hope in hell of being PM. But if he does and there is another indy ref that interview where he said it a pound spent in Croydon does more good than a pound spent in Scotland will be played continuously and combined with Brexit could swing it for SNP.

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6 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

*This is way harsher and more unforgiving than I usually am but having listened to a bunch of fucking idiots from the Brexit Party spouting bollocks last night I really want a solution to getting them out of the way forever so we can go back to real issues like why in one of the richest countries in the world are so many people having to go to foodbanks. 

This is essentially what Cameron thought he was doing when he promised the referendum. A vote that would see remain winning and shut up the Eurosecptics for a generation. It didn’t end well and the lesson is don’t gamble with politics.

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Just now, plot2pot said:

This is essentially what Cameron thought he was doing when he promised the referendum. A vote that would see remain winning and shut up the Eurosecptics for a generation. It didn’t end well and the lesson is don’t gamble with politics.

Yes but what I'm suggesting actually forces Farage to put his money where his mouth is which he has never had to do so far. Do you honestly think with the way he has treated people in Europe they would give him a better deal?? 

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