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Brexit at Glasto?

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10 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

so is TM may now PM till october ?

if she can get away with it.

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4 minutes ago, priest17 said:

Another ref will end in Leave again.

It might. It's a risk I'm willing to take.

And even then it'll still be a better thing than what we face now, because no one will be able to dispute that those voters were backing a particular plan.

Right now, if we leave or if we stay, those loud brexit headbangers will scream betrayal, whereas if they do win a confirmation vote they own it.

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6 minutes ago, priest17 said:

Another ref will end in Leave again. People are stubborn and a chunk of people who voted remain will vote leave because they've not followed whats going on but 'believe in democracy'.

And when the Leave vote comes in again they'll be even more insufferable. Yey can't wait.

What we really need is time travel or something, maybe we'll get some pointers from Endgame when we find out how they'll beat Thanos.

"Leave" won't be an option. It'll be leaving with a specific deal.

Every single deal that's been mooted, there have been leavers claiming it's "not what they voted for".

I also don't think the "believe in democracy" thing will happen. Those remainers might oppose a second referendum because of that, but if they get given a second referendum anyway that's different.

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1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

not so sure ... there are quite a few new younger voters ... and did anyone vote for this chaos that is now ongoing with no end in sight ? 

There will be new voters, lets hope a large chunk of them go out and vote for remain. Young doesn't equal remain though I've known plenty of young conservatives growing up. No one voted for this but people didn't know what they voted for, the lies of the last campaign have gone basically unpunished whats to stop them bending the truth again? 

What do we do if it comes out 51/49 either way? That's basically a draw. This situation is too fucked to ask us again. I'm still kinda fuming they asked us in the first place, this is why we elected people to answer stuff for us. I literally make cartoons for a living I don't know about making trade deals for a whole country, the opening scroll of Star Wars episode 1 still confuses me!

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8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

"Leave" won't be an option. It'll be leaving with a specific deal.

Every single deal that's been mooted, there have been leavers claiming it's "not what they voted for".

I also don't think the "believe in democracy" thing will happen. Those remainers might oppose a second referendum because of that, but if they get given a second referendum anyway that's different.

Maybe. The whole thing just smells like the first referendum where everyone was convinced we'd remain and we didn't. It'd be foolish to think that again, and yet a lot of people seem to. I might have gone too pessimistic with it but I've seen nothing to convince me there's been a monumental shift one way or the other. 

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6 minutes ago, priest17 said:

Maybe. The whole thing just smells like the first referendum where everyone was convinced we'd remain and we didn't. It'd be foolish to think that again, and yet a lot of people seem to. I might have gone too pessimistic with it but I've seen nothing to convince me there's been a monumental shift one way or the other. 

There may not have been a monumental shift.

But if the question changes to one of specifics rather than the vague concept we had last time out, there doesn't neccesarily need to be.

Amongst the "Leave" side, there's never been uniform view of what leave actually means, and at the referendum they were able to exploit this by selling all possible versions of it to all different people. People who've not changed their views may vote differently because what's actually on offer isn't what they want or feel they were promised - just as the ERG have repeatedly voted against Brexit in the commons, and just as some leave supporting MPs have voted against No Deal.

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3 minutes ago, incident said:

There may not have been a monumental shift.

But if the question changes to one of specifics rather than the vague concept we had last time out, there doesn't neccesarily need to be.

Amongst the "Leave" side, there's never been uniform view of what leave actually means, and at the referendum they were able to exploit this by selling all possible versions of it to all different people. People who've not changed their views may vote differently because what's actually on offer isn't what they want or feel they were promised - just as the ERG have repeatedly voted against Brexit in the commons, and just as some leave supporting MPs have voted against No Deal.

Fair enough and this seems to be the view of a lot of people so I'm probably (hopefully!) wrong. The thing that ties all Leave voters together, no matter what conditions, is that they want to leave the EU. I don't think they'll be split up on the ballot paper. There might be an option to vote what kind of Brexit we have after that but you're gonna upset a lot of people just breaking up the votes.

Just to be clear after a couple of pessimistic posts, I want to remain in the UK and I'd be happy with another referendum to achieve that. I can't see it happening though. Sometimes you just lose.

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41 minutes ago, priest17 said:

Another ref will end in Leave again. People are stubborn and a chunk of people who voted remain will vote leave because they've not followed whats going on but 'believe in democracy'.

And when the Leave vote comes in again they'll be even more insufferable. Yey can't wait.

What we really need is time travel or something, maybe we'll get some pointers from Endgame when we find out how they'll beat Thanos.

Ever since the last referendum every single poll has had remain above. Its somewhere near 8-10 % ahead on last polls. 

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2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

it's enough time for a ref.

All we need to now is to pray that Jez doesn't sell us all out.

I think if we went for another ref EU would grant extension beyond Oct anyway

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7 minutes ago, tumbles said:

Ever since the last referendum every single poll has had remain above. Its somewhere near 8-10 % ahead on last polls. 

Every poll before the referendum said remain was above as well

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7 minutes ago, priest17 said:

I stand corrected. 

What depresses me more is looking at current general political stances is how the hell the Tories still have a core 40% of support...  !

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1 minute ago, tumbles said:

What depresses me more is looking at current general political stances is how the hell the Tories still have a core 40% of support...  !

Most recent polls show they're down to the low 30s! 

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I wish macron had held the line and not granted a longer extension - could have ended with revoke. Now we've got another umpteen months of this charade

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3 hours ago, uscore said:

I don't think we're getting a referendum via Corbyn.  I'm hoping that another situation develops where parliament delivers one.  Not optimistic.

How does Corbyn make a second referendum happen? May control's the legislative agenda And there's still not a majority for it in parliament. If may refuses to have a meaningful vote for a few weeks, there then won't be enough time for one either. 

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3 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

How does Corbyn make a second referendum happen?

The first thing he has to do to make it happen is ask for it.

Right now we don't have the first fucking idea if he has.

And for all we know Labour and the tories are trying to work a stitch-up which they believe is to their advantage as parties while screwing the country.

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1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

It might. It's a risk I'm willing to take.

And even then it'll still be a better thing than what we face now, because no one will be able to dispute that those voters were backing a particular plan.

Right now, if we leave or if we stay, those loud brexit headbangers will scream betrayal, whereas if they do win a confirmation vote they own it.

I still think the problem is, even if there's a second referendum (and not sure how there is unless May agrees to one), and its a stitch up one (her deal vs remain), even if remain wins what's to stop the new tory leader (say if its Boris) from then saying no deal wasn't an option and referendums don't count, it was only advisory etc (basically all the arguments the PV campaign have been using for the past few years). 

Think the best strategy is to push for common market 2.0 (won't happen) until we get to deadline crisis point and then revoke as there's no time for anything else other than Mays deal or no deal. Labour can say the always said they'd oppose no deal, and she can take all the heat for having wasted the 'opportunity' 

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Nah a stitch up is fine with me.

It'll be like when we wanted Proportional Representation and instead they made us chose between  FPTP and Alternative Vote.  And then when FPTP won they said "well that's the matter closed then".

Remain vs May's deal in a referendum is one of the only ways the Brexit saga ends.   

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1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

I still think the problem is, even if there's a second referendum (and not sure how there is unless May agrees to one), and its a stitch up one (her deal vs remain), even if remain wins what's to stop the new tory leader (say if its Boris) from then saying no deal wasn't an option and referendums don't count, it was only advisory etc (basically all the arguments the PV campaign have been using for the past few years). 

who says they'd be a new tory leader before a ref?

If May called a ref, I can't see Boris being keen to be leader before it's happened - because that might have him going out the door almost as quick as Camoron the day after the vote.

 

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

Think the best strategy is to push for common market 2.0 (won't happen) until we get to deadline crisis point and then revoke as there's no time for anything else other than Mays deal or no deal. Labour can say the always said they'd oppose no deal, and she can take all the heat for having wasted the 'opportunity' 

It's a shit idea.

May can roll over at any time and carry enough tory MPs for Labour's Brexit to be what we get.

Which means that Labour will own it but not control it. 

It's the worst possible outcome for both the Labour Party and the country. May's deal is better.

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4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

The first thing he has to do to make it happen is ask for it.

Right now we don't have the first fucking idea if he has.

And for all we know Labour and the tories are trying to work a stitch-up which they believe is to their advantage as parties while screwing the country.

A Labour front bencher was quoted as saying there's basically zero incentive to reach a deal with May because they have arch remainers on one side screaming betrayal and arch brexiteers screaming betrayal on the other side. 

Plus they have several get out clauses:

A) may won't give them everything they want (very unlikely she concedes much of anything) 

B even if she does, she can't offer any guarantees that her successor won't bin any agreed changes

C even if she does both of the above they can then ask for a second referendum to confirm it

 

 

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3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

who says they'd be a new tory leader before a ref?

If May called a ref, I can't see Boris being keen to be leader before it's happened - because that might have him going out the door almost as quick as Camoron the day after the vote.

 

It's a shit idea.

May can roll over at any time and carry enough tory MPs for Labour's Brexit to be what we get.

Which means that Labour will own it but not control it. 

It's the worst possible outcome for both the Labour Party and the country. May's deal is better.

And may can roll over and agree to a second referendum at any point too, doesn't mean she will. There's a higher chance of revoke passing at crisis point than a referendum passing now (looking at the numbers so far, there's a solid majority opposing no deal, where as so far there hasn't been a majority for a second referendum). 

 

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29 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

A Labour front bencher was quoted as saying there's basically zero incentive to reach a deal with May because they have arch remainers on one side screaming betrayal and arch brexiteers screaming betrayal on the other side. 

Plus they have several get out clauses:

A) may won't give them everything they want (very unlikely she concedes much of anything) 

B even if she does, she can't offer any guarantees that her successor won't bin any agreed changes

C even if she does both of the above they can then ask for a second referendum to confirm i

there's other front benchers like Long(time idiot)-Bailey bigging it up, desperately wanting it.

With her and Jez and Seamus on the case, there's very good reason for big worries.

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27 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

And may can roll over and agree to a second referendum at any point too, doesn't mean she will. There's a higher chance of revoke passing at crisis point than a referendum passing now (looking at the numbers so far, there's a solid majority opposing no deal, where as so far there hasn't been a majority for a second referendum). 

 

So we revoke and then what?

It doesn't fix it either. Nothing to stop someone else triggering Article 50 again on the basis that we need to respect the referendum result. 

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28 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

And may can roll over and agree to a second referendum at any point too, doesn't mean she will.

there's no advantage to her doing that. There is an advantage in dipping it on Labour.

 

Quote

There's a higher chance of revoke passing at crisis point than a referendum passing now (looking at the numbers so far, there's a solid majority opposing no deal, where as so far there hasn't been a majority for a second referendum). 

nah.

The problem, same as ever, is that MPs don't want to be responsible for taking what is only a shit decision.

If it comes down to a choice between a 2nd ref and revoke, MPs will vote for the ref.

Edited by eFestivals

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