Brexit at Glasto?

[stuartbert two hats]

41 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

The north west vote was inflated by big cities like Manchester and Liverpool that are heavily pro remain. There are areas like mine (Barrow in Furness), Wigan etc that voted massively to leave and could easily vote brexit party in an election where brexit hasnt been delivered. 

Those big cities are part of the NW though, it's not as if the results are being artificially skewed. Proud to live in Greater Manchester this morning, Brexit came fourth.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/european-election-2019-results-manchester-16307195

Edited May 27, 2019 by stuartbert two hats

[Zoo Music Girl]

8 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

Yes but what I'm suggesting actually forces Farage to put his money where his mouth is which he has never had to do so far. Do you honestly think with the way he has treated people in Europe they would give him a better deal?? 

Isn't Farage an advocate of no deal though? Why would he bother trying to negotiate something better? He'd just say fuck it and leave with no deal.

[Sasperella]

10 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Those big cities are part of the NW though, it's not as if the results are being artificially skewed. Proud to live in Greater Manchester this morning, Brexit came fourth.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/european-election-2019-results-manchester-16307195

Those are some comforting stats. Even if everything else is a mess

Let's all move to Manchester!

Edited May 27, 2019 by Sasperella

[gigpusher]

3 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Isn't Farage an advocate of no deal though? Why would he bother trying to negotiate something better? He'd just say fuck it and leave with no deal.

It's not what he promised in the referendum. Wasn't it going to be the easiest deal ever because Europe needs Britain more than the other way round. Leave literature said there would be a deal that would leave us better off and we'd leave in an orderly fashion. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Isn't Farage an advocate of no deal though? Why would he bother trying to negotiate something better? He'd just say fuck it and leave with no deal.

The message we need to get out now is that "no deal" isn't a destination, it's a starting point to years and years of negotiations with every country in the world, not just the EU.

We need to get this message and repeat, repeat, repeat. There's still a perception that "no deal" is some kind of final solution, when it's actually a very very early step in a process. Never mind the argument that the process will lead to a worse eventual outcome, we should be focussing on how much time and energy will be wasted on negotiations by going no deal, rather than putting any sort of end to them with a "clean break".

Also, nobody campaigned on platform of no deal, so that narrow 52% victory doesn't really apply anymore.

[Scott129]

17 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Those big cities are part of the NW though, it's not as if the results are being artificially skewed. Proud to live in Greater Manchester this morning, Brexit came fourth.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/european-election-2019-results-manchester-16307195

Yeah i know but the discussion was on how a labour backing a second referendum would do in northern constituencies like Wigan and Bolsover etc which they need to win to win an election. These areas could easily turn to the brexit party if brexit isn't delivered. 

You should feel very proud. I lived in Manchester as a student and its a remarkable city

[gigpusher]

18 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Those big cities are part of the NW though, it's not as if the results are being artificially skewed. Proud to live in Greater Manchester this morning, Brexit came fourth.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/european-election-2019-results-manchester-16307195

I also think big cities actually demonstrate that the whole anti-immigration thing is a nonsense because people who are more likely to work and live with immigrants seem to have no problem with them. The ones who seem to be bothered by immigrants are those who have the least exposure to them. We constantly have arguments with my mother-in-law about 'these muslims' that she doesn't know and has never spoken to while we have lots of real life experience of working with perfectly lovely people. 

[gigpusher]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The message we need to get out now is that "no deal" isn't a destination, it's a starting point to years and years of negotiations with every country in the world, not just the EU.

We need to get this message and repeat, repeat, repeat. There's still a perception that "no deal" is some kind of final solution, when it's actually a very very early step in a process. Never mind the argument that the process will lead to a worse eventual outcome, we should be focussing on how much time and energy will be wasted on negotiations by going no deal, rather than putting any sort of end to them with a "clean break".

Also, nobody campaigned on platform of no deal, so that narrow 52% victory doesn't really apply anymore.

The sad truth is that most people who are saying we should leave with no deal basically think it means nothing would change. Some people think it is actually the same as staying as we are!! 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Scott129 said:

Yeah i know but the discussion was on how a labour backing a second referendum would do in northern constituencies like Wigan and Bolsover etc which they need to win to win an election. These areas could easily turn to the brexit party if brexit isn't delivered. 

You should feel very proud. I lived in Manchester as a student and its a remarkable city

That's fair, I suppose I was railing a bit about the lazy generalisation from the London-centric media that portrays "the north", as a homogeneous, poverty-stricken, backwards, racist wasteland.  Which wasn't really the tone on here. So I admit to somewhat arguing against a viewpoint that wasn't really presented on here. I was just "triggered", by a reference to the north

And I am worried by the distribution of sentiment in the NW. Because of FPTP It doesn't matter how concentrated the progressive votes in the cities are if the likes of the Brexit party have broad support in the rest of the region - the MPs delivered if this voting pattern was replicated in a parliamentary vote would be devastating.

[Mr.Tease]

35 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

if there's a 2nd referendum it's very likely to be legally binding - which will work if it's a vote on a specific plan. 

 

the genie can't be put back in the bottle but it can be killed off - but that's only possible with another vote.

the likes of Boris are making the same promises that May did - and it'll end the same way. It's not deliverable without overriding parliament, and it's exceedingly unlikely any PM would do that*.

(* perhaps Raab, he's stupid enough) 

And they can't risk a GE because that's guaranteed to let farage in at the expense of the tories.

In the end the only way that even the tories can neutralise farage and brexit is with a 2nd vote. If brexit is on the losing side then farage is fucked. Brexit can't happen without that public majority; even Farage isn't stupid enough to think that him winning a GE with around 35% of the vote would give a mandate to brexit.

 

I think the tories will be s***ing themselves and all the leadership candidates will feel the need to categorically rule out a second referendum in the leadership contest - I know he's a shameless opportunist, but there's no way he can immediately announce a second referendum (especially when that was the reason given for forcing May to resign).

So that kicks any chance through to October when he has to start legislating for his pretend no deal Brexit (and I'm not sure as to the extent parliament could force him into one). At that point it would need the EU to agree another extension. The complication there is that macron has just lost to le pens party in the EU election so he'll be spooked, so I wouldn't be surprised if he decided an example has to be made of us to deter other anti EU populists. 

Also there's the complication in that the new EU Council doesn't start sitting until November 1st, I think, so not sure if they can grant an extension before we're due to leave. 

[Brownie30]

1 hour ago, Scott129 said:

The north west vote was inflated by big cities like Manchester and Liverpool that are heavily pro remain. There are areas like mine (Barrow in Furness), Wigan etc that voted massively to leave and could easily vote brexit party in an election where brexit hasnt been delivered.  

I know, thank god for this. Tommy Robinson is beyond extreme and i'm not suggesting that northern areas would vote for him

Here in Lancaster the Brexit Party came top with 30.8%, Green Party 2nd with 20.5%, LD's 3rd with 19.8% -  the two unequivocally remain parties together having more votes than the one obvious pro-leave party by about 10%. In a student-heavy constituency too, Labour coming in 4th place with 13.1% tells you all you need to know about their ambiguous and frankly shameful position on this whole mess. 

[zero000]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

it would also require Sturgeon to say that all economic things that are bad about brexit are good about indy. That's going to be a difficult sell, I think.

Exactly. Complain about the perils of nationalism whilst pushing nationalism in Scotland. 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

The sad truth is that most people who are saying we should leave with no deal basically think it means nothing would change. Some people think it is actually the same as staying as we are!! 

I'm not convinced the level of ignorance is actually that high. I remember doing some reading that there is strong evidence very, very few people pushing no deal think that's the status quo. I think that's a myth. I'll try to dig something out later, but may not be able to find it.

We do ourselves a disservice if we really believe those with different views to us are really quite so stupid. It's insulting to them and blunts our ability to form a convincing counter argument.

[stuartbert two hats]

Right, I'm going to carpet bomb social media with this message:

"A reminder that 'no deal' means decades of negotiations with every country on the planet. It's the furthest thing possible from a clean break."

Can anyone suggest any improvements to the wording?

Edited May 27, 2019 by stuartbert two hats
Tweak to quotation mark styles.

[zero000]

10 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not convinced the level of ignorance is actually that high. I remember doing some reading that there is strong evidence very, very few people pushing no deal think that's the status quo. I think that's a myth. I'll try to dig something out later, but may not be able to find it.

We do ourselves a disservice if we really believe those with different views to us are really quite so stupid. It's insulting to them and blunts our ability to form a convincing counter argument.

Whilst I agree, there's also a significant amount of the Dunning-Kruger effect taking place across the populous. We really didn't appreciate how ignorant we all were, Remainers and Leavers alike, about the EU until well after the referendum. We're in a much better place to make a logical decision now when we're aware of the complexity. We have to challenge the hollow soundbites like leave means leave.

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by zero000
Grammar

[fatyeti24]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Right, I'm going to carpet bomb social media with this message:

"A reminder that 'no deal' means decades of negotiations with every country on the planet. It's the furthest thing possible from a clean break."

Can anyone suggest any improvements to the wording?

Quote

"A reminder that 'no deal' means decades of negotiations with every country on the planet. It's the furthest thing possible from a clean break, you daft c**ts."

 

It won't win any arguments, but it made me feel better by typing it.

[Mr.Tease]

13 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not convinced the level of ignorance is actually that high. I remember doing some reading that there is strong evidence very, very few people pushing no deal think that's the status quo. I think that's a myth. I'll try to dig something out later, but may not be able to find it.

We do ourselves a disservice if we really believe those with different views to us are really quite so stupid. It's insulting to them and blunts our ability to form a convincing counter argument.

Yep, people seem to know what it means and accept the hit. It's like when you quit your job without having another lined up- sometimes you'll make the sacrifice. 

[gigpusher]

16 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not convinced the level of ignorance is actually that high. I remember doing some reading that there is strong evidence very, very few people pushing no deal think that's the status quo. I think that's a myth. I'll try to dig something out later, but may not be able to find it.

We do ourselves a disservice if we really believe those with different views to us are really quite so stupid. It's insulting to them and blunts our ability to form a convincing counter argument.

Perhaps things have changed but I've seen a significant level of ignorance about what it means and I've desperately tried to find the link but I'm sure there was a poll that Sky News ran that showed that a large number of people didn't understand it. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

Yep, people seem to know what it means and accept the hit. It's like when you quit your job without having another lined up- sometimes you'll make the sacrifice. 

Well, I don't think they entirely understand what it means - which is why I want to push this message about "no deal" meaning years of negotiations. But the idea that there are lots of people advocating for "no deal" who are really remainers expecting A50 to be revoked - that's the part I think is deluded.

[Scott129]

22 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Because of FPTP It doesn't matter how concentrated the progressive votes in the cities are if the likes of the Brexit party have broad support in the rest of the region

Exactly this. Even though the remain/leave vote is tight because remain is so concentrated, leave constituencies outnumber remain 2 to 1

[Scott129]

23 minutes ago, Brownie30 said:

Labour coming in 4th place with 13.1% tells you all you need to know about their ambiguous and frankly shameful position on this whole mess. 

They're in a tough position where they need to win pro-remain and pro-leave constituencies. I think its harsh to call a position that has tried to find a compromise between leave and remain voters shameful but I respect your opinion. I also doubt as many voters would go lib dem/green in a general election where theres the potential of a hard right tory/BP government. 

Saying that i'm not convinced at all what position labour should take 

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

They're in a tough position where they need to win pro-remain and pro-leave constituencies. I think its harsh to call a position that has tried to find a compromise between leave and remain voters shameful but I respect your opinion. I also doubt as many voters would go lib dem/green in a general election where theres the potential of a hard right tory/BP government. 

Saying that i'm not convinced at all what position labour should take 

Whilst I understand the bind they're in, surely in such a situation they should go with representing the membership? 

[gigpusher]

6 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

They're in a tough position where they need to win pro-remain and pro-leave constituencies. I think its harsh to call a position that has tried to find a compromise between leave and remain voters shameful but I respect your opinion. I also doubt as many voters would go lib dem/green in a general election where theres the potential of a hard right tory/BP government. 

Saying that i'm not convinced at all what position labour should take 

I also think that the entire electorate doesn't have the advantage of being able to call on all the experts and information that parties are privy to. They should decide their option based on that information and then educate the electorate on why they choose that position. It's shouldn't be about trying to appease people but actually trying to work in their best interests. 

The majority of people want to bring back capital punishment are Labour going to back that too?? Sometimes you have a moral obligation to take an opinion that is unpopular and explain to people why they have taken it. I think the figures in Manchester show that some people will vote Labour no matter what. 

[Scott129]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Whilst I understand the bind they're in, surely in such a situation they should go with representing the membership? 

Probably and I think we'll see a move towards a second referendum over the next few days. It is worth noting that 2/3rds of members have backed Labours strategy so far. 

1 minute ago, gigpusher said:

Sometimes you have a moral obligation to take an opinion that is unpopular and explain to people why they have taken it.

Of course but in this situation it was right to try to seek a compromise and reunite the country. A second referendum will just leave the country as bitterly divided, if not more so. Thats why I think labour's position is right. 

I accept that the chance of a soft brexit has now run out of road though

[gigpusher]

1 minute ago, Scott129 said:

 

I accept that the chance of a soft brexit has now run out of road though

I don't think it was ever going to work as a compromise just pissed everybody off didn't give the leavers the sovereignty they so crave and left remainers with a shitter version of the EU. To use the analogy of capital punishment if those opposed want people alive and those who are for want them dead putting someone in an induced coma is never going to be a workable compromise.