Brexit at Glasto?

[StupidDream]

Will be an interesting EU election in the UK, if it comes to that. How many people will then care to show up? Or would some try to make it a sort of referendum? Can't imagine it actually going about EU matters, will be hijacked. (But tbf, in most countries it will mostly reflect national perceptions of politicis nowadays.) 

[eFestivals]

20 minutes ago, StupidDream said:

Will be an interesting EU election in the UK, if it comes to that. How many people will then care to show up? Or would some try to make it a sort of referendum? Can't imagine it actually going about EU matters, will be hijacked. (But tbf, in most countries it will mostly reflect national perceptions of politicis nowadays.) 

I'm pleased to see UKIP only polled 9% in a low-turnout byelection yesterday. Of all the voters they should be the ones motivated to go and vote at the mo, so if they could only get 9% in a low turnout they'd get much less in a normal turnout in the same area.

That vote is of course only for that area, but it doesn't suggest any sort of pro-brexit insurgency.

[mcshed]

36 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I'm pleased to see UKIP only polled 9% in a low-turnout byelection yesterday. Of all the voters they should be the ones motivated to go and vote at the mo, so if they could only get 9% in a low turnout they'd get much less in a normal turnout in the same area.

That vote is of course only for that area, but it doesn't suggest any sort of pro-brexit insurgency.

UKIP have been such a shambles since the referendum my main worry if we do take part in the Euros is Farage's new Brexit party. For whatever reasons Farage is given so much coverage in the media they will become a force.

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, mcshed said:

UKIP have been such a shambles since the referendum my main worry if we do take part in the Euros is Farage's new Brexit party. For whatever reasons Farage is given so much coverage in the media they will become a force.

Hopefully the ukip vote is split between them and brexit party

[jackarmy]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

I'm pleased to see UKIP only polled 9% in a low-turnout byelection yesterday. Of all the voters they should be the ones motivated to go and vote at the mo, so if they could only get 9% in a low turnout they'd get much less in a normal turnout in the same area.

That vote is of course only for that area, but it doesn't suggest any sort of pro-brexit insurgency.

They also fielded a "high profile" candidate in Neil Hamilton, tbf they trebled their vote share, but 3 x fuck all is still fuck all.

I was surprised Plaid failed to make more of an impact given their pro People's Vote stance. I can only speak from what I hear locally, but for me not much has changed in people's minds on the Brexit vote in South Wales over 3 years.

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, mcshed said:

UKIP have been such a shambles since the referendum my main worry if we do take part in the Euros is Farage's new Brexit party. For whatever reasons Farage is given so much coverage in the media they will become a force.

 

58 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Hopefully the ukip vote is split between them and brexit party

The brexit party doesn't seem to have really got going, and it keeps on having to sack it's top bods who keep being found to be racists ... so i can't see UKIP and Farage doing as well as UKIP has done in the past, plus as you say the vote will probably be split in some places at least.

[eFestivals]

39 minutes ago, jackarmy said:

I was surprised Plaid failed to make more of an impact given their pro People's Vote stance. 

I'm not. Why would a party who's aim is worse than brexit be the solution to the problems of brexit? And particularly in the part of the UK that was most brexity.

[Penrhos]

I was hoping it would have all blown over by the end of April and the Government had either rescinded article 50 or left on WTO rules (as they have no intention of passing TM's crap deal). Even if they promised "Referendum V2" with the options of no-deal brexit, crap-deal brexit, as you are or join the Euro and jump fully into Europe.

At least it's stopped the Tories pushing further austerity down our throats and cutting services even more while they've been ripping their own party to shreds.

Hopefully it'll all settle down before the next general election as the Manifestos will be comical if they haven't and worthless as the EU would have to ratify anything to do with the EU anyway.

I fully intent to try and avoid the News and spend my entire time at Glasto being off my face and having a good time in the mud and no MP is going to spoil it....

Edited April 5, 2019 by Penrhos

[SouthbanKen]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

I'm not. Why would a party who's aim is worse than brexit be the solution to the problems of brexit? And particularly in the part of the UK that was most brexity.

The other pro remain parties were all also up, including Green +2.8%, LDEM +2.4% and Renew 3.7% so PLaid were not on their own waving the remain banner.

 

 

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, Penrhos said:

I was hoping it would have all blown over by the end of April and the Government had either rescinded article 50 or left on WTO rules (as they have no intention of passing TM's crap deal). Even if they promised "Referendum V2" with the options of no-deal brexit, crap-deal brexit, as you are or join the Euro and jump fully into Europe.

At least it's stopped the Tories pushing further austerity down our throats and cutting services even more while they've been ripping their own party to shreds.

Hopefully it'll all settle down before the next general election as the Manifestos will be comical if they haven't and worthless as the EU would have to ratify anything to do with the EU anyway.

I fully intent to try and avoid the News and spend my entire time at Glasto being off my face and having a good time in the mud and no MP is going to spoil it....

I'm struggling to see how Brexit get's put to bed in the short term.

If May's deal passes, that's just the beginning of 2 years of negotiations so we'll have all this drawn out til then and then another 'crisis' when the backstop gets activated because they couldn't agree a deal.

If we have a second referendum of May's deal vs remain, even if remain wins, the ERG led Tories might then campaign on leaving with no deal by saying the referendum never gave that option.

If we revoke, brexiteers will cry blue murder for years, and again what's to stop the ERG doing the above.

If we leave with no deal, there will be a long term crisis followed by long term decline

If we extend by a year then this crap just goes on til then.

[eFestivals]

15 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

I'm struggling to see how Brexit get's put to bed in the short term.

Revoke! Revoke! Revoke!

(that's how it's put to bed in the short term and the long term)

[Mr.Tease]

9 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Revoke! Revoke! Revoke!

(that's how it's put to bed in the short term and the long term)

Much as I'm tempted to say yes, looking at Scotland after the independence referendum, it seemed to have a radicalising effect on the side that lost. So imagine what effect it would have on the side that won the referendum but then saw it get revoked!

[uscore]

1 hour ago, Penrhos said:

I was hoping it would have all blown over by the end of April and the Government had either rescinded article 50 or left on WTO rules

Leaving on WTO terms would certainly not be the end of it.  It would barely be the beginning.  Once you get over the initial shock (which will be somewhere between negligible and catastrophic depending on who you speak to) then we have to start negotiating all the trade deals and all the other millions of things that define our relationship with the EU.  And all the same problems, such as Northern Ireland, and the conversations about freedom of movement and regulatory alignment would have to go on. We could easily end up with something like May's deal, or a customs union, or something worse as we'll be in a weaker position, and all that after the chaos, rather than during any transition period.

Politicians and the media really need to stop presenting WTO / no deal as some kind of clean break. It's the opposite.

Edited April 5, 2019 by uscore

[eFestivals]

19 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Much as I'm tempted to say yes, looking at Scotland after the independence referendum, it seemed to have a radicalising effect on the side that lost. So imagine what effect it would have on the side that won the referendum but then saw it get revoked!

Ultimately, I don't think that many people really care about brexit. There's a number of loud people of course who will make a fuss.

But for the rest, they'd like it but it's not that big a deal. I also reckon a lot of the chunk who are saying 'no-deal' in the polls are saying that because they think that makes it go away, so I reckon they're able to be persuaded.

[eFestivals]

19 minutes ago, uscore said:

Leaving on WTO terms would certainly not be the end of it.  It would barely be the beginning.  Once you get over the initial shock (which will be somewhere between negligible and catastrophic depending on who you speak to) then we have to start negotiating all the trade deals and all the other millions of things that define our relationship with the EU.  And all the same problems, such as Northern Ireland, and the conversations about freedom of movement and regulatory alignment would have to go on. We could easily end up with something like May's deal, or a customs union, or something worse as we'll be in a weaker position, and all that after the chaos, rather than during any transition period.

Politicians and the media really need to stop presenting WTO / no deal as some kind of clean break. It's the opposite.

yup. Even for some thinking WTO is the better way to go, there's still chaos caused by the change from one set of terms to another.

Tariffs that suddenly appear because of the change will mean loss of sales by British firms to those markets, without any new instant market to to cover the loss (there might be a new market in the longer term, but in the short term there'll be job losses).

[Mr.Tease]

10 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

yup. Even for some thinking WTO is the better way to go, there's still chaos caused by the change from one set of terms to another.

Tariffs that suddenly appear because of the change will mean loss of sales by British firms to those markets, without any new instant market to to cover the loss (there might be a new market in the longer term, but in the short term there'll be job losses).

I quite liked someones line, that you'd essentially be putting sanctions on yourself, which is a line I think should have been used earlier - the whole 'freedom to strike your own trade deals' is a bit too prominent for my liking 

[Andeeroo]

Go Betty.

 

[Mr.Tease]

So May wasn't offering and change to the political deceleration so it was just to waste time until she can get to a choice of either her deal or no deal. Suspect EU will refuse an extention. 

[zero000]

29 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

So May wasn't offering and change to the political deceleration so it was just to waste time until she can get to a choice of either her deal or no deal. Suspect EU will refuse an extention. 

Entirely expected really. Another fudge by Theresa May, she seems utterly paralysed about making a decision one way or the other. I'm now wondering if it's going to come down to revoke or no-deal next week, if she doesn't accept a long extension. Absolute madness. The inquiry in 10 years time is going to be a doozy.

Edited April 5, 2019 by zero000

[zero000]

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Edited April 5, 2019 by zero000
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[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, zero000 said:

Entirely expected really. Another fudge by Theresa May, she seems utterly paralysed about making a decision one way or the other. I'm now wondering if it's going to come down to revoke or no-deal next week, if she doesn't accept a long extension. Absolute madness. The inquiry in 10 years time is going to be a doozy.

I don't want an enquiry, once this is over I think it should be made illegal to ever mention brexit again! 

[tumbles]

1 hour ago, Mr.Tease said:

So May wasn't offering and change to the political deceleration so it was just to waste time until she can get to a choice of either her deal or no deal. Suspect EU will refuse an extention. 

It’s all in the plan for her - the letter went in to the EU this morning some days before needed. Then this.  When EU refuse and offer her 12 months she’ll blame the extended stay on Labour. Meanwhile she’ll be saying to that ERG back my deal in a forth MV or otherwise we go into a softer Brexit.  

[mashedonmud]

8 hours ago, Penrhos said:

 I fully intent to try and avoid the News and spend my entire time at Glasto being off my face and having a good time in the mud and no MP is going to spoil it....

Already there ?

[eFestivals]

So, another huge make-or-break week.

I'll start with the good news. On Marr yesterday a Daily Heil journo said that if an extension is refused and it's no-deal or revoke at the end of the week, then he reckons Parliament will vote to revoke. Fingers crossed!

Glad to see that the urgent work between the parties continued over the weekend, not. It's good to see both parties taking this seriously, not. Still, jez needed the weekend off else he'd have had to take his lieu days during the week.  

So anyway ... MV4 this week sometime? I'm guessing after the EU have said 'no'.

[tumbles]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

So, another huge make-or-break week.

I'll start with the good news. On Marr yesterday a Daily Heil journo said that if an extension is refused and it's no-deal or revoke at the end of the week, then he reckons Parliament will vote to revoke. Fingers crossed!

Glad to see that the urgent work between the parties continued over the weekend, not. It's good to see both parties taking this seriously, not. Still, jez needed the weekend off else he'd have had to take his lieu days during the week.  

So anyway ... MV4 this week sometime? I'm guessing after the EU have said 'no'.

May's sofa chat very much indicated that its extension or revoke to me. People like Robert Peston saying he saw it that way too.