Brexit at Glasto?

[incident]

3 hours ago, hfuhruhurr said:

The only issue we have - let's say today's vote fails. Then prize clown Corbyn calls a vote of confidence, he wins, the govt. is defeated.

Surely the chances that the government would lose a confidence vote still have to be pretty remote.

The DUP aren't going to vote against the government, from their perspective the current situation is better than they could ever hope for again and they'll keep it going as long as they can. And while it would only take a few Tories to cross over, doing so on a confidence vote would basically amount to quitting the party.

[kingbadger]

Reports of Labour MPs switching to support the PM's deal. She's going to sneak this through isn't she.

[kalifire]

23 minutes ago, kingbadger said:

Reports of Labour MPs switching to support the PM's deal. She's going to sneak this through isn't she.

It'll be close, but I don't think so.

[eFestivals]

23 minutes ago, kingbadger said:

Reports of Labour MPs switching to support the PM's deal. 

well, when Jez has said all the way thru that the result stands and that brexit can't be stopped, why shouldn't they? 

No leadership for anything else gives them permission to go along with what he's said.

And guess what? If that vote goes thru, after 3 years of some saying the tories are imminently about to tear themselves apart, it's going to be Labour that does.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, kalifire said:

It'll be close, but I don't think so.

fingers crossed.

[Sasperella]

41 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

And guess what? If that vote goes thru, after 3 years of some saying the tories are imminently about to tear themselves apart, it's going to be Labour that does.

....why do you think that?

[jparx]

FFS this deal is going to go through. It feels like the tide has turned. Hopefully that's just me feeling anxious but it doesn't seem too positive now. Hopefully the threat of a Brexit PM scares Labour rebels in to voting against it.

[eFestivals]

10 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

....why do you think that?

because there will be little forgiveness from Labour voter towards those who enabled brexit, and that will be reflected amongst the MPs too.

[hfuhruhurr]

so nervous about this. Please, it can't happen.

[zero000]

 

Let's hope Peston is right. If Labour enable brexit today they can prepare for electoral annihilation. 

[Sasperella]

9 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

because there will be little forgiveness from Labour voter towards those who enabled brexit, and that will be reflected amongst the MPs too.

Of course, plenty of Labour voters also support Brexit (even if the membership do not)... I would hope Labour would eventually realise that if Tory actions lead to Brexit, the best thing to do is unite and get rid of the fuckers. In of Europe or out of it, the Tories a shot at another five years will be a ruiner 

Having said that, I should make it clear that I sincerely hope no Labour voters vote for this shambles of a deal

Edited March 29, 2019 by Sasperella

[StupidDream]

It will be really close. From the live blog following the debate I get that most Tories will vote for the WA, but that still some will vote against. Most of Labour also against, and only some weird reports saying some will swing, but no clear picture on how many. DUP still against. Still slightly confident the deal won't make it. 

Of course everything is already unimaginable, but would be really weird if people from Labour take the gamble with this kind of blindfolded deal. They can't be really confident about their own position, but than think the Tories are off way worse? Deal or not, they'll be fighting for a new leadership in the near future. 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

Of course, plenty of Labour voters also support Brexit (even if the membership do not).

although just about none of them support the brexit Labour want.

4 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

I would hope Labour would eventually realise that if Tory actions lead to Brexit, the best thing to do is unite and get rid of the fuckers. In of Europe or out of it, the Tories a shot at another five years will be a ruiner 

But the tories are going to get that 5 years whatever. It's Labour's support that's slipping.

And lots of voters are thinking that voting for Labour will just help perpetuate the 2 party shit-show, and they've had enough; as far as they see it the system won't change until voting has.

[Sasperella]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

But the tories are going to get that 5 years whatever.

Then I really don't see why everyone is so obsessed with Brexit. It is the prospect of this which is going to do the most damage. We're where we are now because of them....it's not just suddenly going to get better if we don't leave. 

Too depressing for words. I'm going to get back to writing my thesis and thinking about Glastonbury. Both are far more enjoyable. 

[GMF]

I am not sure who is advising May, but they have messed up tactically on a number of occasions. The key to her getting her deal through was getting as many of the ERG to vote for it, and getting as many Labour Brexiteers or those in Brexit voting seats onside, She was never getting the DUP to vote for it. She had the ERG moving by offering to resign, but by splitting the WA she has frightened the Labour waverers as they would be signing a blank cheque to the new tory leader or forcing a no deal on the 22nd May.

The word Brexiteers now coming up on predictive text.

[DeanoL]

58 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

although just about none of them support the brexit Labour want.

I don't know how true that is. They've been egged on by the ERG lot and that lot also claim to speak for those voters, but I don't think that's actually true. If, and that's a big if, if they look at what they actually want and what the Labour Brexit offers they can probably get behind it.

The two big issues at the time, and which I think are still the issues, were sovereignty and immigration. Any deal that can improve those and is presented well to the electorate (which Corbyn has utterly failed to do) will get support. But most people don't understand this stuff, and nor do they need to as we're not being asked to vote again. (And I would guess not wanting to have to try and understand it is part of the objection to another referendum).

Most leave voters, at this point, just want it done with. The support for "no deal" just comes from the idea that that will get it over it as quickly as possible.

[eFestivals]

23 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I don't know how true that is.

have you ever heard anyone advocate for the Norway option (other than when they're being told they can't have an option they'd prefer)?

The Norway option is fair enough for a country that got there as Norway did, but from the UK's position today it's a downgrade that no-one would choose to do apart from as a compromise.

Some Labour voters on both side might see that compromise as fair enough - although plenty won't either - but it's not what any of them want in an ideal world.

Edited March 29, 2019 by eFestivals

[kalifire]

JRM seen walking into the aye lobby with Johnson. Hold tight, ERG! But for my reasons, not yours.

Edited March 29, 2019 by kalifire

[hfuhruhurr]

YES!!!

[eFestivals]

my thanks again to the headbanger brexiters for helping to keep us in the EU.  

[jparx]

Thank god.

[Mark E. Spliff]

Happy Brexit Day everyone.  Limmy for Glastonbury!

 

[Crazyfool01]

Surely this is a good chance for the Lib Dem’s to become a force in politics now ? Bloody hell its chaos 

[Scott129]

57 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

have you ever heard anyone advocate for the Norway option 

Nigel Farage- "Switzerland and Norway are outside the EU, have their own separate arrangements, with Norway it’s a halfway house, Switzerland are completely out, and they are the two richest countries in Europe"

[Doug85]

A little bit of a positive after the whole shit storm but we are no closer to this ending. At least her deal didn't get anywhere near.