uscore Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 I don't reckon we've seen the end of the delays. No deal is an economic disaster, but revoking a50 is a political disaster. Therefore in the face of such deadlock we'll agree to work towards something else; I don't know what yet, it might be a cross party panel to find an alternative, it might be a general election first, but something. And we'll go for a 1 or 2 year delay which, despite a few countries threats of blocking, the EU will accept. And then we'll be back where we started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoptildrop Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Keithy said: Only the PM can stop No Deal or revoke A50 as only the PM can table the necessary legislation. My worry is May will run the clock down until next Friday and so the only way to stop it is to remove her with a government no con vote and the new PM to table the necessary legislation immediately by next Friday. The timeframe for stopping no deal is still currently 7 days despite the EU agreeing to a temp extension. That extension is meaningless without the government tabling secondary legislation to amend the current exit date in the EU Withdrawal Bill to match the agreed EU date. I can't see May running the clock down to Friday but she's in such a bunker mentality that anything is possible. Has anyone seen this bill going through the House of Lords at the moment, which is basically stating that if there is a no deal outcome then the PM must revoke article 50? This will be legally binding It's on it's 2nd reading today and looks like it's being drafted to "protect the realm" from a no deal Brexit Edit - Its called the Kennedy Bill Edited March 22, 2019 by shoptildrop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uscore Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 The good news is if we delay, and then also extend the transition period, even if we do eventually Brexit, a large amount of the miserable old bastards that voted for it will never see it actually happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjseabass Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 I have some sympathy for the view that No Deal should be on the ballot of any further referendum as, tragically, it has a decent level of public support. And then I remember that it will threaten supplies of cancer treatment isotopes, insulin, my own Crohn’s disease medication, etc, and I think no. This is not something people should be permitted to misguidedly vote for. There is a line to acceptable political ideas and this is past it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hfuhruhurr Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, shoptildrop said: Has anyone seen this bill going through the House of Lords at the moment, which is basically stating that if there is a no deal outcome then the PM must revoke article 50? This will be legally binding It's on it's 2nd reading today and looks like it's being drafted to "protect the realm" from a no deal Brexit This is the link I can find so far - https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2017-19/europeanunionrevocationofnotificationofwithdrawalno2.html Edit - Its called the Kennedy Bill umm - this link points to a private members bill for 2nd reading in house of commons - so that knob will turn up, call a point of order and kill it - it's what he does. Is there a different link? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoptildrop Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said: umm - this link points to a private members bill for 2nd reading in house of commons - so that knob will turn up, call a point of order and kill it - it's what he does. Is there a different link? Soz, I've removed the link but there does seem to be something happening... found this on twitter (can you remove the link from your comment too so it's not there) Edited March 22, 2019 by shoptildrop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zoo Music Girl Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 2 hours ago, MrZigster said: Just fucking fuck Brexit. It's getting personal now. It's in danger of interfering with my Glastonbury. We had all leave cancelled for two months from March 29th in case of a no deal scenario. And I mean all leave. No exceptions. Even the bloke that plays golf with the head honcho twice a week had to drop a (booked well in advance) £700 holiday. If he couldn't wangle out of it nobody could. If the latest (ever shifting) scenario comes into play then they're talking the end of May now, and those two months may well be shifted forward (or is it back(?)) if a no deal thing happens. I'm not into the festival yet. But I have a job offer. But that involves a £300 deposit that I may well lose. I'm pretty sure I'm going to take that gamble. If I lose then at least I can console myself knowing that said £300 has gone to good cause. Every cloud and all that. But seriously. Fuck fucking brexit. What's the logic of cancelling everyone's holiday? I don't get it. Or do you work in an industry that's very closely tied to it so it will be all hands on deck or something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bombfrog Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 7 hours ago, Titters said: March is tomorrow (Saturday) - should that make it easier to get there.... I have no idea why I wrote Tuesday. It's clearly Saturday and I've had it in the calendar for weeks. Weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morph100 Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 I like this web site which shows how the petition is getting votes over time https://tardis.ed.ac.uk/~tkerby/revokea50.html Nice and steady going up today but you can see the issues they had Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eFestivals Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 15 minutes ago, morph100 said: I like this web site which shows how the petition is getting votes over time https://tardis.ed.ac.uk/~tkerby/revokea50.html Nice and steady going up today but you can see the issues they had bottom graph is a bit dodgy, unless someone wiped out 10M+ votes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SighMo Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 If we actually left on the 29th with an agreed short transition period where not too much changed, could we then hold another ‘Re-join/Remain Out’ referendum immediately? That way the first referendum has been honoured. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrZigster Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Zoo Music Girl said: What's the logic of cancelling everyone's holiday? I don't get it. Or do you work in an industry that's very closely tied to it so it will be all hands on deck or something? Yeah. Pretty much that. Have you heard the stories from Calais lately? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homer Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, SighMo said: If we actually left on the 29th with an agreed short transition period where not too much changed, could we then hold another ‘Re-join/Remain Out’ referendum immediately? That way the first referendum has been honoured. ? I think we would still lose our rebate and not being in Shengen/the Euro deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homer Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 Nice to see it could be going back to 12th April. I've got flights to Poland booked for the 19th! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eFestivals Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, SighMo said: If we actually left on the 29th with an agreed short transition period where not too much changed, could we then hold another ‘Re-join/Remain Out’ referendum immediately? That way the first referendum has been honoured. ? Nope. Firstly it's the gift of the EU to grant a wish of membership. Secondly, there's an entry procedure, where terms of entry are set - and which would require the UK to accept the Euro and Schengen (which are defaults for new members now), and we'd be likely to lose the rebate in our membership fees. If we're out, we're never going back in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Tease Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 1 minute ago, eFestivals said: Nope. Firstly it's the gift of the EU to grant a wish of membership. Secondly, there's an entry procedure, where terms of entry are set - and which would require the UK to accept the Euro and Schengen (which are defaults for new members now), and we'd be likely to lose the rebate in our membership fees. If we're out, we're never going back in. What about if Norway+ ended up being the brexit- could we re-join the EU fully further down the line without the euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homer Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said: What about if Norway+ ended up being the brexit- could we re-join the EU fully further down the line without the euro? Makes no difference surely. It's still leaving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eFestivals Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said: What about if Norway+ ended up being the brexit- could we re-join the EU fully further down the line without the euro? Nope. It's the treaty-ed terms of entry for new members, no exceptions. Same with Schengen. I think Sweden was the last new member that didn't have a 'must join the euro' on their entry terms (tho they still get a lot of pressure to do it). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
found home in 2009 Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, eFestivals said: Nope. Firstly it's the gift of the EU to grant a wish of membership. Secondly, there's an entry procedure, where terms of entry are set - and which would require the UK to accept the Euro and Schengen (which are defaults for new members now), and we'd be likely to lose the rebate in our membership fees. If we're out, we're never going back in. Although new members have to aim to join the Euro, there are criteria you have to meet before you're allowed in the Eurozone. Not sure if we have too large a deficit to get the Euro. https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/euro-area/enlargement-euro-area/convergence-criteria-joining_en The Czech Republic have spent 14 years avoiding joining it so I'm sure if the UK were to rejoin we could avoid the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eFestivals Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, found home in 2009 said: Although new members have to aim to join the Euro, there are criteria you have to meet before you're allowed in the Eurozone. Not sure if we have too large a deficit to get the Euro. https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/euro-area/enlargement-euro-area/convergence-criteria-joining_en The Czech Republic have spent 14 years avoiding joining it so I'm sure if the UK were to rejoin we could avoid the Euro. Yes, I know there's criteria. And to meet them, the EU enforce certain policies to create the necessary alignment. And they're getting tougher about it, precisely because some are trying to wriggle out, and they'd be harder on a bigger economy like the UK's (for a start, that would elevate the Euro to the world's dominant currency - a prize worth having). The point is, having to agree to join the Euro would be an extra reason against joining, and would change some current remainers to leavers. If we can't swing it to remain on the terms we have now, I can't see the public wanting to rejoin on what are generally considered to be worse terms than now. Edited March 22, 2019 by eFestivals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keithy Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 As someone has just directed to me this article, it outlines very well the legal nuances between exit day as defined by the EU Withdrawal Bill and the date we leave the EU (Brexit Day) https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blog/changing-eu-exit-day-by-statutory-instrument If I'm reading it right, leaving on no deal next Friday would put us in breach of our international legal obligations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeanoL Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 48 minutes ago, eFestivals said: Yes, I know there's criteria. And to meet them, the EU enforce certain policies to create the necessary alignment. And they're getting tougher about it, precisely because some are trying to wriggle out, and they'd be harder on a bigger economy like the UK's (for a start, that would elevate the Euro to the world's dominant currency - a prize worth having). The point is, having to agree to join the Euro would be an extra reason against joining, and would change some current remainers to leavers. If we can't swing it to remain on the terms we have now, I can't see the public wanting to rejoin on what are generally considered to be worse terms than now. It may take another decade but it will happen. I don’t think it’s like the “become more right wing when you get older” thing. Younger people now have a fundamentally different view of global society and immigration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Tease Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 49 minutes ago, Keithy said: As someone has just directed to me this article, it outlines very well the legal nuances between exit day as defined by the EU Withdrawal Bill and the date we leave the EU (Brexit Day) https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blog/changing-eu-exit-day-by-statutory-instrument If I'm reading it right, leaving on no deal next Friday would put us in breach of our international legal obligations. I'm pretty sure I remember reading that no deal would put us in breach of the good Friday agreement and would therefore be illegal anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eFestivals Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, DeanoL said: It may take another decade but it will happen. I don’t think it’s like the “become more right wing when you get older” thing. Younger people now have a fundamentally different view of global society and immigration. I've spent the last 35 years pretty much thinking that resistance to the EU would soften, much as you're saying it will in the future. And once we've gone thru the pain of adjustment to outside of the EU and settled back into the new normal, there won't be as much of an impetus to rejoin from the same generations as there is a want to remain right now - because the benefits will be lower than what we stand to lose right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eFestivals Posted March 22, 2019 Report Share Posted March 22, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said: I'm pretty sure I remember reading that no deal would put us in breach of the good Friday agreement and would therefore be illegal anyways. No deal doesn't by itself - and the UK could decide to have open customs borders (it won't, but it could). In which case Ireland would be more than a little stuffed, because its signed treaties that say it will enforce a customs border with non-EU states while keeping open borders with EU states., and so would be required in international law to erect a border. Just from an I'd-be-interested-to-see-how-that-plays-out thing, I'd quite like to see that happen. (I don't mean I'd really like to see it happen, it'd be disastrous all round). Edited March 22, 2019 by eFestivals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.