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Brexit at Glasto?


kalifire
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I don't reckon we've seen the end of the delays. No deal is an economic disaster, but revoking a50 is a political disaster. Therefore in the face of such deadlock we'll agree to work towards something else; I don't know what yet, it might be a cross party panel to find an alternative, it might be a general election first, but something.  And we'll go for a 1 or 2 year delay which, despite a few countries threats of blocking, the EU will accept.  And then we'll be back where we started.

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39 minutes ago, Keithy said:

Only the PM can stop No Deal or revoke A50 as only the PM can table the necessary legislation. My worry is May will run the clock down until next Friday and so the only way to stop it is to remove her with a government no con vote and the new PM to table the necessary legislation immediately by next Friday.

The timeframe for stopping no deal is still currently 7 days despite the EU agreeing to a temp extension. That extension is meaningless without the government tabling secondary legislation to amend the current exit date in the EU Withdrawal Bill to match the agreed EU date.

I can't see May running the clock down to Friday but she's in such a bunker mentality that anything is possible. 

Has anyone seen this bill going through the House of Lords at the moment, which is basically stating that if there is a no deal outcome then the PM must revoke article 50? This will be legally binding

It's on it's 2nd reading today and looks like it's being drafted to "protect the realm" from a no deal Brexit

Edit - Its called the Kennedy Bill

Edited by shoptildrop
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I have some sympathy for the view that No Deal should be on the ballot of any further referendum as, tragically, it has a decent level of public support.

And then I remember that it will threaten supplies of cancer treatment isotopes, insulin, my own Crohn’s disease medication, etc, and I think no. This is not something people should be permitted to misguidedly vote for. There is a line to acceptable political ideas and this is past it.

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12 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

Has anyone seen this bill going through the House of Lords at the moment, which is basically stating that if there is a no deal outcome then the PM must revoke article 50? This will be legally binding

It's on it's 2nd reading today and looks like it's being drafted to "protect the realm" from a no deal Brexit

This is the link I can find so far - https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2017-19/europeanunionrevocationofnotificationofwithdrawalno2.html

Edit - Its called the Kennedy Bill

umm - this link points to a private members bill for 2nd reading in house of commons - so that knob will turn up, call a point of order and kill it - it's what he does.

Is there a different link?

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4 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

umm - this link points to a private members bill for 2nd reading in house of commons - so that knob will turn up, call a point of order and kill it - it's what he does.

Is there a different link?

Soz, I've removed the link but there does seem to be something happening... found this on twitter 

(can you remove the link from your comment too so it's not there)

Edited by shoptildrop
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2 hours ago, MrZigster said:

Just fucking fuck Brexit.

It's getting personal now.

It's in danger of interfering with my Glastonbury.

We had all leave cancelled for two months from March 29th in case of a no deal scenario. And I mean all leave. No exceptions. Even the bloke that plays golf with the head honcho twice a week had to drop a (booked well in advance) £700 holiday. If he couldn't wangle out of it nobody could.

If the latest (ever shifting) scenario comes into play then they're talking the end of May now, and those two months may well be shifted forward (or is it back(?)) if a no deal thing happens.

I'm not into the festival yet. But I have a job offer. But that involves a £300 deposit that I may well lose.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to take that gamble. If I lose then at least I can console myself knowing that said £300 has gone to good cause. Every cloud and all that.

But seriously. Fuck fucking brexit.

What's the logic of cancelling everyone's holiday? I don't get it. Or do you work in an industry that's very closely tied to it so it will be all hands on deck or something?

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If we actually left on the 29th with an agreed short transition period where not too much changed, could we then hold another ‘Re-join/Remain Out’ referendum immediately? That way the first referendum has been honoured. ?

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1 hour ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

What's the logic of cancelling everyone's holiday? I don't get it. Or do you work in an industry that's very closely tied to it so it will be all hands on deck or something?

Yeah. Pretty much that. Have you heard the stories from Calais lately?

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13 minutes ago, SighMo said:

If we actually left on the 29th with an agreed short transition period where not too much changed, could we then hold another ‘Re-join/Remain Out’ referendum immediately? That way the first referendum has been honoured. ?

I think we would still lose our rebate and not being in Shengen/the Euro deal.

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10 minutes ago, SighMo said:

If we actually left on the 29th with an agreed short transition period where not too much changed, could we then hold another ‘Re-join/Remain Out’ referendum immediately? That way the first referendum has been honoured. ?

Nope.

Firstly it's the gift of the EU to grant a wish of membership.

Secondly, there's an entry procedure, where terms of entry are set - and which would require the UK to accept the Euro and Schengen (which are defaults for new members now), and we'd be likely to lose the rebate in our membership fees.

If we're out, we're never going back in. :( 

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1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

Nope.

Firstly it's the gift of the EU to grant a wish of membership.

Secondly, there's an entry procedure, where terms of entry are set - and which would require the UK to accept the Euro and Schengen (which are defaults for new members now), and we'd be likely to lose the rebate in our membership fees.

If we're out, we're never going back in. :( 

What about if Norway+ ended up being the brexit- could we re-join the EU fully further down the line without the euro?

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1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

What about if Norway+ ended up being the brexit- could we re-join the EU fully further down the line without the euro?

Nope. It's the treaty-ed terms of entry for new members, no exceptions. Same with Schengen.

I think Sweden was the last new member that didn't have a 'must join the euro' on their entry terms (tho they still get a lot of pressure to do it).

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10 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Nope.

Firstly it's the gift of the EU to grant a wish of membership.

Secondly, there's an entry procedure, where terms of entry are set - and which would require the UK to accept the Euro and Schengen (which are defaults for new members now), and we'd be likely to lose the rebate in our membership fees.

If we're out, we're never going back in. :( 

Although new members have to aim to join the Euro, there are criteria you have to meet before you're allowed in the Eurozone. Not sure if we have too large a deficit to get the Euro. 

https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/euro-area/enlargement-euro-area/convergence-criteria-joining_en

The Czech Republic have spent 14 years avoiding joining it so I'm sure if the UK were to rejoin we could avoid the Euro.

 

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5 minutes ago, found home in 2009 said:

Although new members have to aim to join the Euro, there are criteria you have to meet before you're allowed in the Eurozone. Not sure if we have too large a deficit to get the Euro. 

https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/euro-area/enlargement-euro-area/convergence-criteria-joining_en

The Czech Republic have spent 14 years avoiding joining it so I'm sure if the UK were to rejoin we could avoid the Euro.

 

Yes, I know there's criteria. And to meet them, the EU enforce certain policies to create the necessary alignment. And they're getting tougher about it, precisely because some are trying to wriggle out, and they'd be harder on a bigger economy like the UK's (for a start, that would elevate the Euro to the world's dominant currency - a prize worth having).

The point is, having to agree to join the Euro would be an extra reason against joining, and would change some current remainers to leavers.

If we can't swing it to remain on the terms we have now, I can't see the public wanting to rejoin on what are generally considered to be worse terms than now.

Edited by eFestivals
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As someone has just directed to me this article,  it outlines very well the legal nuances between exit day as defined by the EU Withdrawal Bill and the date we leave the EU (Brexit Day)

https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blog/changing-eu-exit-day-by-statutory-instrument

If I'm reading it right,  leaving on no deal next Friday would put us in breach of our international legal obligations. 

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48 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Yes, I know there's criteria. And to meet them, the EU enforce certain policies to create the necessary alignment. And they're getting tougher about it, precisely because some are trying to wriggle out, and they'd be harder on a bigger economy like the UK's (for a start, that would elevate the Euro to the world's dominant currency - a prize worth having).

The point is, having to agree to join the Euro would be an extra reason against joining, and would change some current remainers to leavers.

If we can't swing it to remain on the terms we have now, I can't see the public wanting to rejoin on what are generally considered to be worse terms than now.

It may take another decade but it will happen. I don’t think it’s like the “become more right wing when you get older” thing. Younger people now have a fundamentally different view of global society and immigration.

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49 minutes ago, Keithy said:

As someone has just directed to me this article,  it outlines very well the legal nuances between exit day as defined by the EU Withdrawal Bill and the date we leave the EU (Brexit Day)

https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blog/changing-eu-exit-day-by-statutory-instrument

If I'm reading it right,  leaving on no deal next Friday would put us in breach of our international legal obligations. 

I'm pretty sure I remember reading that no deal would put us in breach of the good Friday agreement and would therefore be illegal anyways.

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10 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

It may take another decade but it will happen. I don’t think it’s like the “become more right wing when you get older” thing. Younger people now have a fundamentally different view of global society and immigration.

I've spent the last 35 years pretty much thinking that resistance to the EU would soften, much as you're saying it will in the future.

And once we've gone thru the pain of adjustment to outside of the EU and settled back into the new normal, there won't be as much of an impetus to rejoin from the same generations as there is a want to remain right now - because the benefits will be lower than what we stand to lose right now.

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9 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

I'm pretty sure I remember reading that no deal would put us in breach of the good Friday agreement and would therefore be illegal anyways.

No deal doesn't by itself - and the UK could decide to have open customs borders (it won't, but it could).

In which case Ireland would be more than a little stuffed, because its signed treaties that say it will enforce a customs border with non-EU states while keeping open borders with EU states., and so would be required in international law to erect a border.

Just from an I'd-be-interested-to-see-how-that-plays-out thing, I'd quite like to see that happen. (I don't mean I'd really like to see it happen, it'd be disastrous all round).

Edited by eFestivals
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