Brexit at Glasto?

[kingbadger]

7 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The exit legislation being discussed is dead. There's going to be a longer extension. Isn't there???

I wouldn't be surprised if May gets her deal across the line on the 3rd/4th attempt. Despite tonight the default position remains no deal, and I can see there being enough reason for MPs to switch and support it as no deal looms. Remain leaning MPs will be terrified of a no deal exit whilst Brexiteers and the ERG will be fearful that the other alternative should the deal be rejected is a second referendum/revoking of Article 50

[stuartbert two hats]

I'm calling it now, sequence of events will be:

1. Deal gets voted down a third time, this time double rather than triple digits.

2. Extension beyond Glasto Sunday is requested from EU and denied.

3. A50 revoked. 

4. Another referendum.

5. Fuck knows what the result is. 

6. General Election.

 

Almost certainly not going to happen, because every possible outcome appears to be impossible.

I wouldn't be (entirely) surprised if May resigns in the middle of a debate and walks out of the commons. Or drops dead, or both.

[Superunknown]

Tory rebels are almost certainly gonna shit the bed and bottle it last minute. 

Jez doing his usual pissing in the wind act and calling for another general election, nice one. 

[priest17]

1 hour ago, Superunknown said:

 

Jez doing his usual pissing in the wind act and calling for another general election, nice one. 

He does seem to love them, much easier than this actual politics malarkey.

[sjseabass]

You can’t revoke Article 50 and keep open the possibility of leaving (e.g. via a May’s Deal / Remain referendum). It was taken to court and decided it can only be unilaterally revoked if the country is actually definitely intending to stay. So the People’s Vote campaign is extension or bust.

I think the government would now be in contempt of Parliament if things default to No Deal? So if it gets to, say, 28 March without anything else being passed and May refuses to revoke Article 50 (‘permanently’) then she ought to be removed from office.

I don’t actually think Brexit Day being 30 June is very likely at all.

[MetaKate]

As long as I can get into the country i'm not too worried about getting out!

[mcshed]

1 hour ago, theevilfridge said:

You can’t revoke Article 50 and keep open the possibility of leaving (e.g. via a May’s Deal / Remain referendum). It was taken to court and decided it can only be unilaterally revoked if the country is actually definitely intending to stay. So the People’s Vote campaign is extension or bust.

I think the government would now be in contempt of Parliament if things default to No Deal? So if it gets to, say, 28 March without anything else being passed and May refuses to revoke Article 50 (‘permanently’) then she ought to be removed from office.

I don’t actually think Brexit Day being 30 June is very likely at all.

I believe the decision on revoking is not that you can only revoke if you intend to stay but that you can only invoke if you intend to leave. So you can't keep invoking and revoking but we could revoke sort our shit out and if we still are determined to continue on this path invoke it again.

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, theevilfridge said:

It was taken to court and decided it can only be unilaterally revoked if the country is actually definitely intending to stay.

that's not quite how it was.

a50 can be revoked for any reason. The court noted it shouldn't be done to take the piss.

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, theevilfridge said:

I think the government would now be in contempt of Parliament if things default to No Deal?

nope, last night's vote wasn't binding.

Funnily enough it was an advisory vote, just as the referendum was.  

[Rose-Colored Boy]

9 hours ago, kingbadger said:

. Remain leaning MPs will be terrified of a no deal exit

Depends whether they care more about preventing the short term hellscape that leaving with No Deal would turn the country into, or voting to rejoin the EU further down the line. 

A no deal Brexit is the only way to make Leavers regret their choice. If we leave with May’s deal, any consequences of Brexit can just be written off as something that “wouldn’t have happened if only you’d done Brexit properly” blah blah blah and they’ll never ever admit that leaving was a terrible idea.

Regardless, as long as Corbyn sticks around, the issue of ‘any Brexit at the hands of the Torys leaves 99% of the country utterly fucked’ will apply.

8 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

 

I wouldn't be (entirely) surprised if May resigns in the middle of a debate and walks out of the commons. Or drops dead, or both.

Expected this to happen when she stood up after the vote last night, honestly.

Edited March 14, 2019 by Rose-Colored Boy

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, Rose-Colored Boy said:

A no deal Brexit is the only way to make Leavers regret their choice.

won't happen. Whatever happens they'll blame it on someone else. For instance, we'll have only got the pain of no-deal because the EU are evil.

It's pointless trying to satisfy a moron because they'll remain that moron.

[Rose-Colored Boy]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

won't happen. Whatever happens they'll blame it on someone else. For instance, we'll have only got the pain of no-deal because the EU are evil.

It's pointless trying to satisfy a moron because they'll remain that moron.

True enough I guess.

[Gabi_says]

[Superunknown]

MP's getting a vote on giving a second referendum on leaving the EU. Doubt it'll pass as Corbyn needs to back it as well as enough Tory rebels also backing it.

[eFestivals]

12 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

MP's getting a vote on giving a second referendum on leaving the EU. Doubt it'll pass as Corbyn needs to back it as well as enough Tory rebels also backing it.

McD has said Labour aren't going to back it.

Looks like Corbyn wants to own brexit.  

[Scott129]

41 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

MP's getting a vote on giving a second referendum on leaving the EU. Doubt it'll pass as Corbyn needs to back it as well as enough Tory rebels also backing it.

Even if Corbyn did a three-line whip on it then it would still be around 100-150 mps short of a majority. Most Labour mps are in leave constituencies and won't vote for it and few tory rebels will. 

From Corbyn's point of view, what's the point in splitting your shadow cabinet, pissing off the leave voters you need to win an election for a vote that has no chance of getting through anyway

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

From Corbyn's point of view, what's the point in splitting your shadow cabinet, pissing off the leave voters you need to win an election for a vote that has no chance of getting through anyway

instead he's pissing off the remainers he needs to win an election.

And if there was an election he'll have to stop the dithering and actually commit to something, at which point he loses a bit chunk of voters from one side or the other.

So he might as well commit to something now.

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

instead he's pissing off the remainers he needs to win an election.

And if there was an election he'll have to stop the dithering and actually commit to something, at which point he loses a bit chunk of voters from one side or the other.

So he might as well commit to something now.

How's he dithering? He wants a soft Norway style brexit, but up until now the tories who also want that haven't rebelled. (so there was a stalemate,) Now it looks like they might be ready too.

There's no majority at the moment for a second referendum, which even the official people's vote conceded so the only realistic chance of it is if it comes down to May's deal or no deal at which point a second referendum will be pushed as the condition of voting for May's deal. Even Alistair Campbell cites that strategy as do the people vote org. 

So either the commons unites around a soft brexit and bypasses May, or if they can't do that it will likely come down to May's deal subject to second referendum - labour's strategy has actually been quite successful. 

[mcshed]

Even Alastair Campbell doesn't think Labour should support this amendment.

[eFestivals]

Just now, Mr.Tease said:

He wants a soft Norway style brexit

why does he? What's the good of it?

And why does Labour want to own brexit, with all of its consequences?

[gigpusher]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

instead he's pissing off the remainers he needs to win an election.

And if there was an election he'll have to stop the dithering and actually commit to something, at which point he loses a bit chunk of voters from one side or the other.

So he might as well commit to something now.

I'm a remain voter who wouldn't vote for him now because of his performance since the referendum. I didn't chant his name at Glastonbury or go and see him for that reason as well. At a time when the Tories are tearing themselves apart to still be 10 points behind them is unforgiveable. 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

There's no majority at the moment for a second referendum

True.

And the size of the loss will be even bigger because Labour is whipping to abstain calling for one which isn't keeping all options on the table, btw, it's effectively taking it off the table. 

The bigger the loss, the less chance we'll actually get to the one real action which might sort the whole thing out.

[Mr.Tease]

11 minutes ago, Scott129 said:

Even if Corbyn did a three-line whip on it then it would still be around 100-150 mps short of a majority. Most Labour mps are in leave constituencies and won't vote for it and few tory rebels will. 

From Corbyn's point of view, what's the point in splitting your shadow cabinet, pissing off the leave voters you need to win an election for a vote that has no chance of getting through anyway

Yep, the blame Corbyn brigade actually know this but they prefer to pretend otherwise so they can just blame Corbyn regardless. 

The reality is labour has had to be in a holding pattern until the tory remain rebels were actually willing to rebel- they're the key to what happens ultimately, but rather than remainders focusing on winning them round, a bizarre amount of time has been spent blasting corbyn instead. 

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, mcshed said:

Even Alastair Campbell doesn't think Labour should support this amendment.

that's not what he's said.

He's said it's wrong for the amendment to be happening, not that it would be wrong for labour to support that amendment which is happening.

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

why does he? What's the good of it?

And why does Labour want to own brexit, with all of its consequences?

I've said before, if you're not willing to compromise why should brexiteers (when they actually won the referendum)? 

Soft brexit allows you to say you've honoured the referendum while not really changing much or losing much. I'd rather do that than risk a second referendum which could have a worse outcome.