Jeremy Corbyn

[Ayrshire Chris]

He has to fully commit to a second referendum. If not we are heading for economic disaster 

[priest17]

I always liked his politics so was hoping he could steer labour away from 00s Labour then he'd get replaced by someone stronger further down the line, but with brexit and everything he's been rubbish. 

Fair one if he doesn't want a second ref, I'm remain but not convinced it's even the best idea, think it'll go the same way again. But does anyone think he'd get a better deal at the table than May got? Debating is his worst trait, he'd be useless.

[whitehorses]

Continuously baffled by how otherwise intelligent people are so impressed by him. 

Sure he won’t play the pyramid again but am hoping for a bongo set at the stone circle 

 

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

He has to fully commit to a second referendum. If not we are heading for economic disaster 

Personally I'd rather compromise with a soft brexit (not May's deal, but something more in line with Norway), than risk a hard, no deal brexit via second referendum (as I honestly think leave would win).

In a second referendum Leave would be roughly united, they have an emotional narrative that will resonate (they can tap into feelings of betrayal, lack of autonomy, anti-elites, pro nationalism etc), and will have the bulk of the printed press behind them to minimise any 'scare' stories. Meanwhile Remain has no real figurehead, a lot of their main figures are awful (Blair, Mandleson, Alistar Campbell, Soubry, Chukka, Vince cable- you couldn't come up with a worse set to represent the decaying 'elite'- it's like a caricature). Plus the centrists wouldn't be able to stop themselves spending the bulk of the campaign attacking Corbyn, despite the fact he'd be on their side- so the remain campaign would just look hopelessly divided.

Labour should absolutely not advocate a second referendum unless it becomes the last resort. Calling one right now is pointless as it just looks like your trying to thwart brexit (which you are but you need to do so in a way that doesn't p-off leave voters!)- which is May's whole strategy and which is why she's floundering right now- she needs Labour to be able to be painted as trying to thwart brexit, so she can sell her deal as the only way of stopping them. Furthermore labour doesn't even have the power to get a second referendum, and parliament can't push for one until they've had the meaningful vote on May's deal in January- it's pointless and counter productive to call one right now.

If you really want to take the risk of a second referendum, at least wait until May's deal has been voted down. I suspect she'll then call a second referendum, with her deal and 'no-deal' being the two options, parliament will then change it to May's deal and remain (which she'll secretly be pleased with as she can then deny blame for 'thwarting brexit'). That's your best hope of getting remain to win, and it's a costly way because it's clearly a con to brexit voters. They could end up adding canada or no deal to the options, but then you start an argument as to whether people list them in order of preference etc.

Personally I'd resolve the crisis by seeing if the EU would agree to essentially make the backstop the Norway model, with the agreement we then have time to have a general election. Parties can then run on what to try to negotiate further- harder brexit, stick with Norway or back peddle to remain. Think that's the fairest way and is least antagonistic to leave voters.

[chatty]

5 hours ago, Hugh Jass said:

I don’t hate him, I just think he’s been utterly useless. He should be tearing into the government and taking May’s dinner money every day. That Labour don’t have an unassailable polls lead against a Tory party determined to fuck everything up for everyone is absolutely criminal.

Again, there’s a weird cult around him (which probably isn’t even his fault) that I can’t stand. Some look at him as a messiah, but in two years he’s done absolutely fuck all.

He does though but our media dont report it because they are pretty much conservative leading papers. 

I like Corbyn but he had his shot and didnt get the job done, in fairness hes been massively up against it fron the start, the propaganda on him has been some of the worst Ive ever seen but ultinately he is too left wing to win. Labour are probably best gettibg someone more centralist in to bridge the rest if the gap to win an election. We just arent gonna get a left leaning party in power in the UK and id be hapoier taking a soneone that will at least pull us kore towarss the centre than take anymore Tory arseholes at this point. 

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, chatty said:

He does though but our media dont report it because they are pretty much conservative leading papers. 

I like Corbyn but he had his shot and didnt get the job done, in fairness hes been massively up against it fron the start, the propaganda on him has been some of the worst Ive ever seen but ultinately he is too left wing to win. Labour are probably best gettibg someone more centralist in to bridge the rest if the gap to win an election. We just arent gonna get a left leaning party in power in the UK and id be hapoier taking a soneone that will at least pull us kore towarss the centre than take anymore Tory arseholes at this point. 

Around the world centrist parties are taking an absolute whooping, so I'm not sure the whole 'you need to win from the centre' philosophy (which we grew up with) is true anymore- you could make a case that if it wasn't for Corbyn Labour would have gone the same way as most centre-left parties in europe (though we have FPTP not PR so I'm not sure if that would have protected them). Works both ways- I think if one of the brexit lot won the tory leadership, the Tories would do better electorally than under May or some centrist. Old assumptions in politics don't hold at the moment- in fact it seems to be whatever worked in the 90s, do the opposite and you're more likely to have success right now?

[chatty]

3 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Around the world centrist parties are taking an absolute whooping, so I'm not sure the whole 'you need to win from the centre' philosophy (which we grew up with) is true anymore- you could make a case that if it wasn't for Corbyn Labour would have gone the same way as most centre-left parties in europe (though we have FPTP not PR so I'm not sure if that would have protected them). Works both ways- I think if one of the brexit lot won the tory leadership, the Tories would do better electorally than under May or some centrist. Old assumptions in politics don't hold at the moment- in fact it seems to be whatever worked in the 90s, do the opposite and you're more likely to have success right now?

Tbf I do think that the gap is devided more than ever. It seems most people are far left or far right and not a lot in the middle and thats probably worked nice for the tories the last ten years as there seem to be more far right than left. 

I live in Sunderland which politically is a weird place as gou have a lot of people who will vote more right fielded despite hating the tories and everything they stand for. Moat are really anti Corbyn but pro labour so its a bit of a mess. 

[Scott129]

I think it's slightly harsh to blame Corbyn for labour's position in the polls. We live in an odd period where the Conservatives are seen as the party of brexit and will therefore pick up the majority of leave votes. With that in mind I don't see how labour could have an unassailable lead in the polls

I'm really not convinced that a centrist leader like Blair or Chuka would be doing any better. For one they would lose a huge chunk of voters disillusioned by neoliberalism who would either not vote or, worse, vote for the far right where at least an alternative to the status quo was being offered. 

It's hardly like other centrists have been doing particuarly well, look at Macron, Merkel, Clinton.

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, priest17 said:

I always liked his politics so was hoping he could steer labour away from 00s Labour then he'd get replaced by someone stronger further down the line, but with brexit and everything he's been rubbish. 

Fair one if he doesn't want a second ref, I'm remain but not convinced it's even the best idea, think it'll go the same way again. But does anyone think he'd get a better deal at the table than May got? Debating is his worst trait, he'd be useless.

I agree regarding a second referendum, but I think a better deal can be negotiated, simply because it doesn't actually need that much tweaking, and what Labour would be pushing for would be what the EU wants anyways.

Main problems with May's deal is the lack of a way to unilaterally leave it- EU wants this because it doesn't want the UK to become a tax haven etc. I think they'd be open to giving us a unilateral exit mechanism (like the one we used to leave the EU) in exchange for a 'permanent' slightly more comprehensive customs union, which then negates the issues of Northen Ireland (another reason for them refusing to give a unilateral exit from the backstop). You then flip the level of guarantees for worker & environmental rights with that for state aid rules (May's deal is slightly weaker on the former and stricter with the later), and trade of Single Market access with control over immigration (likely settling for some very superficial immigration controls which essentially ends up very much like freedom of movement).

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, chatty said:

Tbf I do think that the gap is devided more than ever. It seems most people are far left or far right and not a lot in the middle and thats probably worked nice for the tories the last ten years as there seem to be more far right than left. 

I live in Sunderland which politically is a weird place as gou have a lot of people who will vote more right fielded despite hating the tories and everything they stand for. Moat are really anti Corbyn but pro labour so its a bit of a mess. 

Yep, we live in interesting times- certainly feels like 'all bets are off' at the moment. I'm hoping for a more leftwing outcome but it is a big gamble and we could very easily end up with a no-deal brexit and more rightwing Tory party. Wish the left were a bit more united, we seem to have settled into just being at war with ourselves at a daft time- looking at the trends around the world and the triumph of right-wingers, the left shouldn't really be spending it's time squabbling.

[mcshed]

4 hours ago, priest17 said:

I always liked his politics so was hoping he could steer labour away from 00s Labour then he'd get replaced by someone stronger further down the line, but with brexit and everything he's been rubbish. 

Fair one if he doesn't want a second ref, I'm remain but not convinced it's even the best idea, think it'll go the same way again. But does anyone think he'd get a better deal at the table than May got? Debating is his worst trait, he'd be useless.

Why do you see negotiations with our closest allies as a zero sum game where any positives for us are bad for them and vice versa?

I'd expect Jeremy to get a better deal because his preferred outcome is closer to Europe's and he doesn't necessarily have to end Freedom of Movement.

[eFestivals]

18 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

I still support him because I believe in his policies.

you believe in brexit, which he's just restated as his policy?

 

18 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

At the end of the day if Corbyn is so awful why are the tories so shit scared of an election? 

because the tories are shit too? 

Edited December 24, 2018 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

14 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

Personally I'd rather compromise with a soft brexit (not May's deal, but something more in line with Norway), than risk a hard, no deal brexit via second referendum (as I honestly think leave would win).

latest polling says that a brexit-backing Labour party would come 3rd behind the LibDems in a general election.

[eFestivals]

14 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

Personally I'd resolve the crisis by seeing if the EU would agree to essentially make the backstop the Norway model

The withdrawal agreement isn't the future trade deal - so no matter what, the withdrawal agreement has the same backstop.

It's the only way to legally bind the UK to a no-border in Ireland, no matter who negotiates it, no matter what the UK wants to do post-brexit. There is no getting away from the backstop.

[Mr.Tease]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

you believe in brexit, which he's just restated as his policy?

 

I believe leave won the referendum, and so I'd like as soft a brexit as possible, rather than go into denial and risk a hard, no-deal brexit. Bizarre that this is now some sort of outrageous position.

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

I believe leave won the referendum, and so I'd like as soft a brexit as possible, rather than go into denial and risk a hard, no-deal brexit. Bizarre that this is now some sort of outrageous position.

If we're getting a general election which will affect what happens with brexit, then no-deal is already off the table.

Which ultimately means there's now no reason to brexit at all.

Edited December 24, 2018 by eFestivals

[whitehorses]

5 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

I believe leave won the referendum, and so I'd like as soft a brexit as possible, rather than go into denial and risk a hard, no-deal brexit. Bizarre that this is now some sort of outrageous position.

May’s deal is pretty soft, do you support that? Why would Jeremy’s be more appealing at this late late hour? I can barely think of two worse people than May and Corbyn negotiating the most important political decision in this generation. 

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

If we're getting a general election which will affect what happens with brexit, then no-deal is already off the table.

Which ultimately means there's now no reason to brexit at all.

Not me you have to convince, I voted remain. Problem is brexiteers aren't buying it and likely won't buy it.

[eFestivals]

Just now, caballosblancos said:

Why would Jeremy’s be more appealing at this late late hour?

it may or may not be more-appealing, but unfortunately (if he was able to negotiate anything different) it would still contain the same backstop for Ireland, meaning that it's still unlikely to get enough support in the HoC.

That claim on the UK's sovereignty by the EU is one most MPs will have big difficulty voting thru, same as it's proving for May.

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Not me you have to convince, I voted remain. Problem is brexiteers aren't buying it and likely won't buy it.

the headbanger brexiters wouldn't even buy a deal they'd put together themselves. They don't want out of the EU, they want out of reality,

And if we'd had 2 general elections since the ref, why does the ref result have to stand when govts trying to implement it keep failing? 

There is naff all reason for why Corbyn is still backing brexit apart from him wanting brexit as desperately as Rees-Mogg.

Check out where the polling is. Brexit is properly dead in the majority-public's mind already.

Edited December 24, 2018 by eFestivals

[bamber]

Magic Grandpa is a leaver, always has been. always will be.

The fact that he constantly tries to obfuscate this fact, tells you all you need to know about him, oh and the Cenotaph mac.

Stupid man.

Edited December 24, 2018 by bamber

[whitehorses]

@eFestivals yes... would be nice if May had sacrificed herself on a vote so things can get moving. Towards a GE, 2nd ref, or both. And finally the whole thing getting chucked in the bin as a bad job 

 

(edit “magic grandpa” lol)

Edited December 24, 2018 by caballosblancos

[Mr.Tease]

2 minutes ago, caballosblancos said:

May’s deal is pretty soft, do you support that? Why would Jeremy’s be more appealing at this late late hour? I can barely think of two worse people than May and Corbyn negotiating the most important political decision in this generation. 

My main issue with may's deal is that we don't have a unilateral way to exit it, (along with the overly stringent 'protections' against state aid and the fudge regarding Northern Ireland)- never sign up to anything you can't get out of. We'll essentially sign away all our leverage (not that there was much) and then start negotiating future trade deals etc. 

[eFestivals]

7 minutes ago, caballosblancos said:

@eFestivals yes... would be nice if May had sacrificed herself on a vote so things can get moving. Towards a GE, 2nd ref, or both. And finally the whole thing getting chucked in the bin as a bad job 

yep, the various bits have to be worked thru before brexit can be binned.

So I largely agree with what someone said above, that Corbyn really needs to hold back on calling for a 2nd ref until after May's deal is voted down.

But what he doesn't have to be saying is what he said in that interview the other day - that the 40%* of Labour voters who voted leave have to be respected but the 60% who voted remain shouldn't be, and that Labour would fight a new GE still planning to do brexit.

(* a number he's inflated to help justify his position)

If there's another ref let's hope Jez take another holiday during the campaign. 

Edited December 24, 2018 by eFestivals

[Mr.Tease]

7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the headbanger brexiters wouldn't even buy a deal they'd put together themselves. They don't want out of the EU, they want out of reality,

And if we'd had 2 general elections since the ref, why does the ref result have to stand when govts trying to implement it keep failing? 

There is naff all reason for why Corbyn is still backing brexit apart from him wanting brexit as desperately as Rees-Mogg.

Check out where the polling is. Brexit is properly dead in the majority-public's mind already.

We had a referendum in which leave won. Then we had a General election in which both main parties said they would honour the result and would negotiate a soft brexit deal. Fair enough if we have another general election you can get a fresh mandate for remain, but until then we're stuck on this course until either May's deal get's voted down or the government falls. Think you're using confirmation bias regarding what the polls show regarding Brexit.