The Weather Thread 2019

[jfaragher]

Right then. time to science.

Quick analysis of the output from the Met Office seasonal model.  Caveats - this model isn't intended for this kind of stuff, the analysis method isn't intended for this kind of stuff, its still a long way away, and weather is fickle and complicated.  Don't base your plans on this or blame me when this turns out to be nonsense.  

So - the output from the model has been classified into a number of regimes that are used to describe common weather patterns in the UK (things like 'Zonal' or 'Scandinavian High') that usually hang about for a few days. We can associate typical amounts of rainfall, across broad geographic areas, with these regimes.  These regimes are (usually!) a bit easier to forecast at long lead times (i.e. for 7 or so weeks away) than specific weather at a specific location. Usually.  What you do lose is an idea of what the extremes could be, so basically, if it's going to be a 2007, this won't tell us.

I've looked at the regimes, and for the approx location of Glastonbury classified them into "low", "mid" and "high" in terms of rainfall (around <2mm, <4mm and 4mm+ per day respectively),  then looked at the percentage likelihood of each of these regimes as forecast.  The method used to get a percentage likelihood is an ensemble forecast.

Here's the analysis, in 5 day chunks starting at the dates listed.  Totals are broken by rounding errors.

So¹, I have² conclusively proved that it will be fairly dry for most of the time between now and the festival..

Will update occasionally.

¹ (subject to the caveats up front) 

² (not) 

[Chazwozza]

@jfaragher you are Jackone and I claim my £5...

[Sasperella]

1 hour ago, Rubber Soldier said:

My phone was showing 36C (!) when we arrived mid afternoon in 2017. Tent was already up too, so it was about 50C in there. 

Aye, those things heat up in nanoseconds. Hanging the inner section up was almost unbearable. We were hurriedly trying to get the clips in and then flaked out on the grass after, sweaty AF before the festival had even kicked in!

[Gedh]

1 hour ago, jfaragher said:

 

I've looked at the regimes, and for the approx location of Glastonbury classified them into "low", "mid" and "high" in terms of rainfall (around <2mm, <4mm and 4mm+ per day respectively),  then looked at the percentage likelihood of each of these regimes as forecast. 

So medium is trending upward and high downward....that's my takeaway (puts fingers in ears and hums)

 

[briddj]

4 hours ago, Rubber Soldier said:

How on earth is that grim? Mainly sunshine with the odd shower to cool things down? 

And mud cannot survive above 21 degrees. It would be gone very quickly at those temps.

[briddj]

2 hours ago, gherkin8r said:

I'd quite like the weather across the weekend to be low to mid 20s, few wee clouds here and there, very light breeze, light showers from time to time. Middle left from a meteorological perspective. I think. CBA with temps around 30 degrees. 

Absolutely perfect. People happy to accept sub-20 are bonkers.

[Hugh Jass]

https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/whats-on/music-nightlife/glastonbuyr-festival-weather-forecast-2019-2852549

 

[tumbles]

More click bait shite. 

[Sasperella]

Fucks sake

[fuzzy_logic]

Fuck Gav and his weather vids ?

[Dukeicon]

28 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/whats-on/music-nightlife/glastonbuyr-festival-weather-forecast-2019-2852549

 

I would ignore anything from SomersetLive they are just click bait, they ran this story less than 3 weeks ago.

"Glastonbury Festival 2019 heatwave? Met Office predicts 'dry and higher than average temperatures' for early summer"

https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/glastonbury-festival-2019-weather-forecast-2772991

[fred quimby]

Is Gav actually Nal?

 

I do like the fact he writes the forecast and then at the end say Of course I could be talking shit

[sedra]

Well it’s all too early at the moment to predict despite NME articles predicting the worst!  I do enjoy the speculation though! 

[Homer]

Anyone spotted the Spanish plume? It hailed in Kent last weekend!

What's the outlet for the next fortnight? I've got Shindig (also in the west country) in two weeks.

Edited May 12, 2019 by Homer

[Sasperella]

49 minutes ago, Homer said:

Anyone spotted the Spanish plume? It hailed in Kent last weekend!

What's the outlet for the next fortnight? I've got Shindig (also in the west country) in two weeks.

It's pretty nice in Manchester right now! Although not sure if 15 degrees really counts as a Spanish plume...

[Padgey]

Was in Brighton yesterday and there was a bit of everything, think it was 2014 when it was like that, thunderstorm year.

[Mr.Tease]

36 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

It's pretty nice in Manchester right now! Although not sure if 15 degrees really counts as a Spanish plume...

It is indeed! Perfect festival weather (I always think being in sunny fields adds a few degrees to the temp

Edited May 12, 2019 by Mr.Tease

[Sasperella]

29 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

It is indeed! Perfect festival weather (I always think being in sunny fields adds a few degrees to the temp

Does anyone else play a sort of stick-or-twist game with themselves with regard to daily weather? I would hands down take this for five days, if the alternative was "what's in the box", but I think some people might be aiming for over 20 degrees or no deal

[dccool]

On 5/10/2019 at 12:14 PM, Hugh Jass said:

https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/whats-on/music-nightlife/glastonbuyr-festival-weather-forecast-2019-2852549

 

Gavs a wrong un. Period.

[Sasperella]

On 5/10/2019 at 12:44 PM, Dukeicon said:

I would ignore anything from SomersetLive they are just click bait, they ran this story less than 3 weeks ago.

"Glastonbury Festival 2019 heatwave? Met Office predicts 'dry and higher than average temperatures' for early summer"

https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/glastonbury-festival-2019-weather-forecast-2772991

I'm not happy that this story has made it to the NME. Although, not sure if that lends it some authority, or just reflects the poor levels of journalism that exist nowadays. I hope it's the latter!

[stuartbert two hats]

I'm not trying to spoil anyone's fun, but remember that any predictions of a wet festival, or indeed wet ground on the run-up to the festival are pretty much impossible to predict at this point.

Heatwave conditions on the other hand, you can take to the bank!

[joeruss]

14 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not trying to spoil anyone's fun, but remember that any predictions of a wet festival, or indeed wet ground on the run-up to the festival are pretty much impossible to predict at this point.

Heatwave conditions on the other hand, you can take to the bank!

We don't want heatwave either... a nice sunny 20c will do nicely

[briddj]

1 hour ago, Sasperella said:

I'm not happy that this story has made it to the NME. Although, not sure if that lends it some authority, or just reflects the poor levels of journalism that exist nowadays. I hope it's the latter!

It's definitely the latter.

[tumbles]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not trying to spoil anyone's fun, but remember that any predictions of a wet festival, or indeed wet ground on the run-up to the festival are pretty much impossible to predict at this point.

Heatwave conditions on the other hand, you can take to the bank!

What we can say at the moment is we've had an exceptionally dry year.  IF this did continue into the summer we'd definitely be looking at hosepipe bans etc.

Edited May 13, 2019 by tumbles

[Mr.Tease]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm not trying to spoil anyone's fun, but remember that any predictions of a wet festival, or indeed wet ground on the run-up to the festival are pretty much impossible to predict at this point.

Heatwave conditions on the other hand, you can take to the bank!

Thank goodness someone has brought some indisputable science to the thread!