The Weather Thread 2019

[Jackomanaco]

Wake up, cup of tea, straight to the runs

[GregsyA]

Literally the first thing I now do every morning.  Looks like it's taken a turn for the better.

[Homer]

Accuweather looks fine - sun and the odd shower with temps around 20 degrees for the next 10 days or so. I’m feeling positive today ?

[Homer]

https://m.accuweather.com/en/gb/pilton/ba4-4/weather-forecast/710458

[Jackomanaco]

Still on trend for low pressure coming in from the west middle of next week coupled with the plume of heat from the continent particularly Thursday, make me more than nervous for some tasty thunderstorms. Definitely still on a knife edge, could go either way

Edited June 19, 2019 by Jackomanaco

[sprocketrocket]

8 minutes ago, Jackomanaco said:

Wake up, cup of tea, straight to the runs

Sorry to hear this, have you had some diaroralyte?

[sprocketrocket]

For me now Tuesday is my main concern, but you know... Guys, we'll be alright. 

[Cooter]

17 minutes ago, Jackomanaco said:

Wake up, cup of tea, straight to the runs

Thats not good this early in the day, what did you eat yesterday?

[Homer]

10 minutes ago, Jackomanaco said:

Still on trend for low pressure coming in from the west middle of next week coupled with the plume of heat from the continent particularly Thursday, make me more than nervous for some tasty thunderstorms. Definitely still on a knife edge, could go either way

If the ground remains firm until midweek (and the forecast is decent), it will take something bigger than 2005 to ruin the party.

[Duggyfresh44]

BBC weather now saying rain for Monday, Tuesday and pretty much ALL DAY Wednesday next week. I'm pretty much convinced now that we're going to have a muddy one. Just how muddy is the question......

[Jackomanaco]

Even the CAPE is showing a shit load of convection around on the Thursday. Still time to change, just need that low a bit further west

[jparx]

11 minutes ago, Duggyfresh44 said:

BBC weather now saying rain for Monday, Tuesday and pretty much ALL DAY Wednesday next week. I'm pretty much convinced now that we're going to have a muddy one. Just how muddy is the question......

If you look at the BBC rain map for Wednesday, though, the rain passes over around 7am then it's clear the rest of the day. BBC saying "rain all day Wednesday" isn't really the full story. 

All in all, it looks like the BBC forecast fits largely with the update above from briddj. BBC just doesn't give that much detail on the long range forecast and just says "rain all day Wednesday", when that's not quite what they mean!

[CaledonianGonzo]

14 minutes ago, Duggyfresh44 said:

BBC weather now saying rain for Monday, Tuesday and pretty much ALL DAY Wednesday next week. I'm pretty much convinced now that we're going to have a muddy one. Just how muddy is the question......

Risk of showers isn't the the same as rain all day.

[Homer]

13 minutes ago, Duggyfresh44 said:

BBC weather now saying rain for Monday, Tuesday and pretty much ALL DAY Wednesday next week. I'm pretty much convinced now that we're going to have a muddy one. Just how muddy is the question......

That symbol on weds means ‘showers and sun’, not ‘rain all day’ (let alone in caps).

[tumbles]

The BBC app can just fuck off - they can’t even get things right 12 hours before. 

Edited June 19, 2019 by tumbles

[Wurzelcat]

AccuWeather and it's 7.6mm rain for Weds of the festival can fuck right off too!

[CaledonianGonzo]

1 minute ago, Wurzelcat said:

AccuWeather and it's 7.6mm rain for Weds of the festival can fuck right off too!

It's another faulty meter.

[Duggyfresh44]

11 minutes ago, Homer said:

That symbol on weds means ‘showers and sun’, not ‘rain all day’ (let alone in caps).

Showers = rain. Believe me I want to remain as positive as anyone but as time goes by, more and more rain is being forecast for the start and middle of next week. Not being funny, but I'm no novice - this will be my 16th Glastonbury. And I know that the kind of rainfall being predicted now is going to damage the ground. How much is what concerns me now.

[Duggyfresh44]

I will be very happy to be proven wrong btw.... 

[Homer]

Just now, Duggyfresh44 said:

Showers = rain. Believe me I want to remain as positive as anyone but as time goes by, more and more rain is being forecast for the start and middle of next week. Not being funny, but I'm no novice - this will be my 16th Glastonbury. And I know that the kind of rainfall being predicted now is going to damage the ground. How much is what concerns me now.

Click on it - it says chances of rain are about 20% at any given time. Once again, not rain ALL DAY.

[Homer]

7mm of rain over a whole day isn’t very much.

[fuzzy_logic]

Met office now updated to Tuesday has it looking good graphics wise, however when you read the accompanying dialogue it sounds crap ?!?

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

26 minutes ago, fuzzy_logic said:

Met office now updated to Tuesday has it looking good graphics wise, however when you read the accompanying dialogue it sounds crap ?!?

Yeah I noticed that. I assume their current modelling has rain coming in but missing Pilton. Which might mean that all of a sudden during today / tomorrow a load of heavy rain symbols appear as if by magic. 

[Aragorn]

The ensembles for Somerset from the 00z GFS show low pressure potentially arriving over the festival weekend and there will be some rain over the festival period but again not copious amounts.  Temps around 18-20 by day 11-13 by night 

 

 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Aragorn

[Aragorn]

The 00z shows alot of rain Tuesday and Thursday at the moment but it is the green run from the precipitation chart above and as you can see it does not have a great deal of support from other members although the means suggests we will have rain