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The Weather Thread 2019


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1 minute ago, tumbles said:

Forgive me for my ignorance but isn’t a plume high temps + flash downpours/thunderstorms?  Is that a good thing?!

Thats what I was thinking (wiki below)

The Spanish Plume (Penacho Ibérico in Spanish and Spaanse Pluim in Dutch) is a weather pattern in which a plume of warm air moves from the Iberian plateau or the Saharato northwest Europe giving rise to severe thunderstorms. This meteorological pattern can lead to extreme high temperatures and intense rainfall during the summer months, with potential for flash flooding, damaging hail storms, and tornado formation

 

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You twisted my arm... put another log on the fire and pass the hip flask. It's a long yarn, but a good one. Anyone who was there in 2007 knows there was only one way to survive that weekend - and

You think they’d release the weather now the full lineup is out. 

Hi guys.  As suggested by @JoeyT - I've updated the Rainfall records summary table I put together in 2017... The historical data is taken from here:  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/had

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2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I live five minutes drive from the Blossoms pub. Every time I see the Pyramid building at J1 it gets me excited for Glastonbury.

My mate lives round the corner on Addswood Road East. We pop in there for Old Tom on tap and then go back to his to smoke pipes of matter and watch Kubrick.

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1 minute ago, Wurzelcat said:

Thats what I was thinking (wiki below)

The Spanish Plume (Penacho Ibérico in Spanish and Spaanse Pluim in Dutch) is a weather pattern in which a plume of warm air moves from the Iberian plateau or the Saharato northwest Europe giving rise to severe thunderstorms. This meteorological pattern can lead to extreme high temperatures and intense rainfall during the summer months, with potential for flash flooding, damaging hail storms, and tornado formation

 

Oh yeah, still mud.  The options are cold and wet or hot and wet ?. They are the two options on the table at mo. 

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2 minutes ago, tumbles said:

Forgive me for my ignorance but isn’t a plume high temps + flash downpours/thunderstorms?  Is that a good thing?!

Thunderstorms would be a risk, yes, but they will all miss the site due to the Pilton Forcefield. 

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1 hour ago, Jackomanaco said:

I just typed 200mm rainfall in to YouTube! Wtf, guaranteed nightmares tonight 

That is apocalyptic. It's also scaremongering. 

General consensus is that we are in for a mixed bag (at the moment).

Regardless, we are all sensible here so lets just not.  

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8 minutes ago, bigfurbdogg said:

Last couple of updates on nerdweather forum don’t make for great reading.

To be fair I think they are more about the possibility of an extended period of warm weather, rather than just for a few days next week.

The GFS 18Z is running now anyway..... Looks like I'm staying up for it.

Edited by briddj
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3 minutes ago, briddj said:

To be fair I think they are more about the possibility of an extended period of warm weather, rather than just for a few days next week.

The GFS 18Z is running now anyway..... Looks like I'm staying up for it.

How long does it take? Perhaps I'll stay up long enough..

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1 hour ago, Wurzelcat said:

Thats what I was thinking (wiki below)

The Spanish Plume (Penacho Ibérico in Spanish and Spaanse Pluim in Dutch) is a weather pattern in which a plume of warm air moves from the Iberian plateau or the Saharato northwest Europe giving rise to severe thunderstorms. This meteorological pattern can lead to extreme high temperatures and intense rainfall during the summer months, with potential for flash flooding, damaging hail storms, and tornado formation

 

I can cope with the wet weather but could do without tornados to be honest... 

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Here's the 18Z.

High pressure: Pressure still building in from Friday. The plume is 100% there as before, building to a high on Wednesday but we need other charts to confirm. Pressure then still sinking away on the Friday with the low coming up over the weekend BUT now it appears to pass further to the west of the UK before only really affecting Scotland and the north.

Precipitation: Little bit showing for this Thursday, then dry Friday. Few showers on Saturday. The Sunday it's dry throughout the day before that band of rain appears again and sweeps in over the early hours of Monday and sticks around until the evening - so still hugging into the south west. Dry on Tuesday with excellent temps. There's still some rain in the early hours of Tuesday into Wednesday, but it's now essentially dry all day Weds including when the gates open. Dry on Thursday, Friday and Saturay ...  and now completely dry on Sunday.

Temperatures: Rising to 19-21 over this weekend, brilliant for drying. Monday 21, Tuesday 22-23, Wednesday 20-21, Thursday 21, Friday 23, Saturday 22-23, Sunday 20-21

image.thumb.png.b3b55265bfa21597132f0a0c62075fbf.png


So the warmer temperatures are transferred to the weekend in this run, with the low pushed out east. And there is essentially no rain other than on the early hours of Wednesday before the gates open......

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1 hour ago, briddj said:

Thunderstorms would be a risk, yes, but they will all miss the site due to the Pilton Forcefield. 

Pilton forcefield only activated post 2005 then?  I remember what the thunderstorms did on the Thursday night that year.  Woke up in the middle of a river, was like being on a water bed :D I survived and had a wicked festival that year.  2007 was shit though.  Warm and wet is OK, cold and wet is leave early territory.  Wishing you all a great festival, go see IDLES for me please. 

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3 minutes ago, briddj said:

Here's the 18Z.

High pressure: Pressure still building in from Friday. The plume is 100% there as before, building to a high on Wednesday but we need other charts to confirm. Pressure then still sinking away on the Friday with the low coming up over the weekend BUT now it appears to pass further to the west of the UK before only really affecting Scotland and the north.

Precipitation: Little bit showing for this Thursday, then dry Friday. Few showers on Saturday. The Sunday it's dry throughout the day before that band of rain appears again and sweeps in over the early hours of Monday and sticks around until the evening - so still hugging into the south west. Dry on Tuesday with excellent temps. There's still some rain in the early hours of Tuesday into Wednesday, but it's now essentially dry all day Weds including when the gates open. Dry on Thursday, Friday and Saturay ...  and now completely dry on Sunday.

Temperatures: Rising to 19-21 over this weekend, brilliant for drying. Monday 21, Tuesday 22-23, Wednesday 20-21, Thursday 21, Friday 23, Saturday 22-23, Sunday 20-21

image.thumb.png.b3b55265bfa21597132f0a0c62075fbf.png


So the warmer temperatures are transferred to the weekend in this run, with the low pushed out east. And there is essentially no rain other than on the early hours of Wednesday before the gates open......

Temps look weird in respect to the warm air. Must be some cloud cover or the GFS is not showing the correct temps? 

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4 minutes ago, briddj said:

Here's the 18Z.

High pressure: Pressure still building in from Friday. The plume is 100% there as before, building to a high on Wednesday but we need other charts to confirm. Pressure then still sinking away on the Friday with the low coming up over the weekend BUT now it appears to pass further to the west of the UK before only really affecting Scotland and the north.

Precipitation: Little bit showing for this Thursday, then dry Friday. Few showers on Saturday. The Sunday it's dry throughout the day before that band of rain appears again and sweeps in over the early hours of Monday and sticks around until the evening - so still hugging into the south west. Dry on Tuesday with excellent temps. There's still some rain in the early hours of Tuesday into Wednesday, but it's now essentially dry all day Weds including when the gates open. Dry on Thursday, Friday and Saturay ...  and now completely dry on Sunday.

Temperatures: Rising to 19-21 over this weekend, brilliant for drying. Monday 21, Tuesday 22-23, Wednesday 20-21, Thursday 21, Friday 23, Saturday 22-23, Sunday 20-21

image.thumb.png.b3b55265bfa21597132f0a0c62075fbf.png


So the warmer temperatures are transferred to the weekend in this run, with the low pushed out east. And there is essentially no rain other than on the early hours of Wednesday before the gates open......

I'm out of up votes but that is all rather nice.

Temps in the low 20s and a mostly dry festival is pretty much perfect. 

 

I'm sure theres plenty of efesters who will sleep better tonight, thanks for taking the time to do the report!

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