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The Weather Thread 2019


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You twisted my arm... put another log on the fire and pass the hip flask. It's a long yarn, but a good one. Anyone who was there in 2007 knows there was only one way to survive that weekend - and

You think they’d release the weather now the full lineup is out. 

Hi guys.  As suggested by @JoeyT - I've updated the Rainfall records summary table I put together in 2017... The historical data is taken from here:  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/had

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Just now, briddj said:

Just thought. Why am I defending weather forecasting? I'm losing my mind - I don't know what I'm talking about!

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway, 12Z is running.....

Believe.......

your doing a grand old job

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43 minutes ago, Jay Pee said:

Urmston for me.  Or for graft at least.

Its all very South Side this.  Any Newton Heath about or Moston Rats?

Also Urmston! Though not for graft... 7 in our group. All originally local although 1 now lives in Scotland, 1 Chester, 1 Wilmslow and 1 flying in the day before from Sydney ?

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1 hour ago, Cjs benno said:

Manchester is going to be a ghost town next week!?...

Mad really. In my 3 previous visits to the farm, I have not come across any Mancs at all.

I am in Newton Heath.

Edited by eastynh
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5 minutes ago, briddj said:

Just thought. Why am I defending weather forecasting? I'm losing my mind - I don't know what I'm talking about!

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway, 12Z is running.....

I certainly don't want you to stop! I just think we all need to take them with a large pinch of salt, at least for a few more days.

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3 minutes ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

I certainly don't want you to stop! I just think we all need to take them with a large pinch of salt, at least for a few more days.

I've always been doing that, don't you worry! I'm not expecting this to come off at all.

Edited by briddj
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Forecast from the BBC looks quite grim until you look at each day specifically. Rain forecasted over three days, but actually looks to be very little in the grand scheme of things. I appreciate a small amount of rain can quickly become a deluge, but equally a small amount of predicted rain can miss you entirely. 

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10 minutes ago, briddj said:

Just thought. Why am I defending weather forecasting? I'm losing my mind - I don't know what I'm talking about!

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway, 12Z is running.....

I'm enjoying it, don't let anyone tell you otherwise.   Whatever happens we'll all be ready for the greatest party on the earth in 7 (ish) days time

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Just now, Duggyfresh44 said:

Well some of the options on the table from Gav's video earlier today Andy the Netweather guys have me seriously worried. 

One of them is a total washout.

Basically they don't know, it's going one of two ways and we're not going to know for sure until at least the weekend imo.

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1 minute ago, tumbles said:

Basically they don't know, it's going one of two ways and we're not going to know for sure until at least the weekend imo.

Agreed, but even then they will likely only have a fair idea up til Friday with the details for Sat and Sun not known til midweek,

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2 minutes ago, tumbles said:

Basically they don't know, it's going one of two ways and we're not going to know for sure until at least the weekend imo.

Pretty much this really. All about that low. Also, if other models start to agree with the GFS it gets more interesting.

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I think we should apply to the Guinness World Records for the longest weather discussion for a single event in history. We have been talking Glastonbury weather since October last year - insane, and we still don't know if it's going to rain or not.

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9 minutes ago, briddj said:

I've always been doing that, don't you worry! I'm not expecting this to come off at all.

The 06z Somerset ensembles for GFS are out 

Shows the low will encroach on the festival weekend according to the mean of all 20 runs in the 06z suite - however the precipitation mean shows damp conditions but certainly not downpours

 

 

 

 

 

Somer.jpg

SomerP.jpg

Edited by Aragorn
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1 minute ago, Deneva48 said:

I Cant remember off hand the 2013 one, I would have to look at my photos to jog my memory, only one permanently stuck in my head was 2016, worst one I have been to. Looking at the latest weather doesn't really help, there at odds with each other. What we need is no real heavy rain from beginning of next week, thousands tramping all over the place from Wednesday will soon churn it up if its very wet. Myself I would be happy with cold and dry, not sunny and wet underfoot. It will be what it is, nothing we can do about it. 

2013 was minimal - I think 4mm rain and most of it was Thurs evening for an hour or so.  Unremarkable in terms of temps/sun but dry and no mudbath. Give me that all day long..

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2 minutes ago, tumbles said:

2013 was minimal - I think 4mm rain and most of it was Thurs evening for an hour or so.  Unremarkable in terms of temps/sun but dry and no mudbath. Give me that all day long..

I think this is what we’ll probably get this year. Nothing spectacular in terms of temperature but fairly dry 

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13 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

GFS 12z is basically showing the warm air not making it in, quite a different run. Much cooler. Still not a great amount of rain.

When you say not a great amount of rain do you mean, not a lot? Or, a lot, so therefor not great? ?

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