The Weather Thread 2019

[Joshuwarr]

We know that a muddy Glastonbury often impacts ticket sales of the next year. A muddy 2019 might not be the worst thing in the world with the 50th anniversary coming up.....

[Sasperella]

1 minute ago, Joshuwarr said:

We know that a muddy Glastonbury often impacts ticket sales of the next year. A muddy 2019 might not be the worst thing in the world with the 50th anniversary coming up.....

It would have to be hella muddy though. I don't think the 2017 ticket sales were that slow... ? And I wouldn't wish a 2007 on anyone!

[dccool]

5 minutes ago, Joshuwarr said:

We know that a muddy Glastonbury often impacts ticket sales of the next year. A muddy 2019 might not be the worst thing in the world with the 50th anniversary coming up.....

I don't think that would make any noticeable difference on t day in october. 

[Joshuwarr]

Understood! Its just I've seen and spoken to a lot of people who have never been but have said "I'll go to the 50th anniversary" so even if a few thousands are put off by a muddy 2019 it helps the rest of us. But then again, seems like a rather silly trade off as I'd be gutted to have a muddy 2019 then still not get tickets next time!

[chazwwe]

2 hours ago, Joshuwarr said:

Understood! Its just I've seen and spoken to a lot of people who have never been but have said "I'll go to the 50th anniversary" so even if a few thousands are put off by a muddy 2019 it helps the rest of us. But then again, seems like a rather silly trade off as I'd be gutted to have a muddy 2019 then still not get tickets next time!

Thing is I've had loads of people tell me 'oh I'll go next year' when I tell them the times I've had and come ticket day they can't be bothered and most don't even know you have to register/sign up. 

I think the 50th will be just as hard to get tickets as the past few years with still selling out within 30 minutes it might just be less regulars get tickets. 

[Ayrshire Chris]

The level of the water table is the main consideration. If it’s high and ground saturated then it’s gonna be muddy if it rains heavily. The amount of rain between now and the festival is important. Also heavy mud when the trucks are constructing the site caused bother in 16. 

[Crazyfool01]

15 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

The level of the water table is the main consideration. If it’s high and ground saturated then it’s gonna be muddy if it rains heavily. The amount of rain between now and the festival is important. Also heavy mud when the trucks are constructing the site caused bother in 16. 

maybe  the reason for a slightly earlier start this year ...

[tarw]

11 hours ago, Fishman said:

Eh, what?! Worse time possible. You don't want ra*n in the wee small hours. It seriously spoils night time shenanigans. 

1mm will purely cool you down slightly to reenergise the dancing 

[MetaKate]

16 hours ago, Joshuwarr said:

We know that a muddy Glastonbury often impacts ticket sales of the next year. A muddy 2019 might not be the worst thing in the world with the 50th anniversary coming up.....

Nonononooooo

Cant we just fabricate some sort of disaster to put people off? 

[dccool]

5 hours ago, MetaKate said:

Nonononooooo

Cant we just fabricate some sort of disaster to put people off? 

We should all start telling everyone its shit and leave 1 star reviews on trip advisor 

[Thunderstruck]

Met office long range ensembles predictions lean towards warmer than normal temperatures. Chances of above and below normal precipitation is fairly balanced.

Precip - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-mjj-v1.pdf

Temps - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-mjj-v1.pdf

[Henrik]

On 4/30/2019 at 9:12 AM, Joshuwarr said:

We know that a muddy Glastonbury often impacts ticket sales of the next year. A muddy 2019 might not be the worst thing in the world with the 50th anniversary coming up.....

Yeah, I agree. As I missed out this year and I'm desperate to go next year, I'm hoping 2019 gets the ground conditions of 2016 combined with the overhead conditions of 2007 ?

[Fork_UK]

2 hours ago, Thunderstruck said:

...warmer than normal...

That's it.  You've said it now and I'm gonna ride it all the way to the farm.  ?

[Homer]

Said it before a million times: it has to really piss it down in the run up to the festival and then throughout the festival to get a mudbath. This is why mudbaths are relatively rare.

The public perception is skewed by the fact that there are only two interesting stories to the media: 'mudbath at Glastonbury' and 'heatwave at Glastonbury'. 'Average temperates for the time of year at Glastonbury (with the odd shower)' isn't much of a story...

[fred quimby]

2 hours ago, Thunderstruck said:

Met office long range ensembles predictions lean towards warmer than normal temperatures.

Thunder storms then

[The Nal]

3 minutes ago, Homer said:

Said it before a million times: it has to really piss it down in the run up to the festival and then throughout the festival to get a mudbath. This is why mudbaths are relatively rare.
 

2005 I remember falling asleep under the shade of the Peel tent on Thursday evening. Grass everywhere, ground was rock hard. 

12 hours later.

[Homer]

1 minute ago, The Nal said:

2005 I remember falling asleep under the shade of the Peel tent on Thursday evening. Grass everywhere, ground was rock hard. 

12 hours later.

2005 was a slight anomaly in that the average rainfall for the entire month fell in a few hours.

Also, the sight was pretty much dried out by Sat night - hence what I said about it needing to piss down the whole of the weekend too (we were v lucky with the subsequent lack of any rain!). 

[JoeyT]

Taken from the netweather forum:

Quote

As previously outlined, the importance of this is vast - because seasonal wavelength changes from Spring to Summer  would lock in this type of default for periods during June, and possibly July in much the same ways as, by way of a few examples, during 1994, 1996 (to some degree) and 2006. Most of those years also had some Nino upstream forcing attached to them - and 2006 perhaps closest in this respect with an establishing and growing +QBO phase which helped supress sustained higher latitude blocks and facilitated low heights over the pole to follow the blocking of seasonal transition.

The most recent post discussed some of the elements that could make things go wrong, and which also would encourage Atlantic blocking mechanisms to become the default instead - and which would persist or follow on from the upcoming unseasonal supressed jet stream  conditions.

So of course there is nothing inevitable about such repetition in 2019 

However all three of the aforementioned years (1994, 1996 and 2006) saw highly underwhelming May's with a supressed jet stream and plethora of Atlantic/Greenland blocking prior to very good June and July's - but summer variants followed this in each case centred around extended dry very warm/hot settled spells and some spectacular thundery breakdowns and re-loads of the Atlantic trough and European ridge pattern. 1994 was especially notable for the thundery variant during both June and July.

Pretty much a foreign language but mentioned are previous years they think this summer's weather will be like.

Final paragraph starts promising but then mentions the *thunder* word...

[Sasperella]

21 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Taken from the netweather forum:

Pretty much a foreign language but mentioned are previous years they think this summer's weather will be like.

Final paragraph starts promising but then mentions the *thunder* word...

I wish I knew what that quote meant. Overall quite good outlook?

[The Nal]

9 minutes ago, Sasperella said:

Overall quite good outlook?

Overall they haven't a fucking clue and won't do until the week of the festival.

[Hawros]

On 4/30/2019 at 9:08 AM, Fishman said:

Eh, what?! Worse time possible. You don't want ra*n in the wee small hours. It seriously spoils night time shenanigans. 

When would you like the 2 hours of rain? 7am-9am? 8-10am?

 

[The Nal]

Have a read of this . Weather thread from 2016, on the Monday of festival week. Some Carol person from BBC saying "not the usual mudbath". 

 

Edited May 1, 2019 by The Nal

[JoeyT]

9 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Overall they haven't a fucking clue and won't do until the week of the festival.

People were probably saying similar about us when we were trying to predict the lineup for this years festival back in October 2017 but it didn't stop us!

[gigpusher]

On 4/30/2019 at 11:36 AM, chazwwe said:

Thing is I've had loads of people tell me 'oh I'll go next year' when I tell them the times I've had and come ticket day they can't be bothered and most don't even know you have to register/sign up. 

I think the 50th will be just as hard to get tickets as the past few years with still selling out within 30 minutes it might just be less regulars get tickets. 

This there are about 10 people I know who every year they say they are going to go next year. I've even explained to some of them what they have to do to get a ticket. They never do any of it. 

The more efficient ticketing system does sadly just disadvantage those of us who would keep trying for hours/days if necessary. It's still better than a ballot though. I hope they never, ever implement a ballot system. 

[Mezhyp1]

2016 was a good laugh really, all things considered it could have been a lot worse