The Weather Thread 2019

[doodlesbyben]

8 minutes ago, briddj said:

So, here's the 12Z.....

Pressure: Again building to a high, but starts to sink away on Saturday. On this run the low out to the west looks more developed and could well be a worry in future runs. But the high pressure actually performs better on the Sunday on this run, with lower pressure further north. So good news overall.

Precipitation: Rain overnight, stopping around 6am leaving the whole of Monday for good drying. But the rain is back again overnight into Tuesday - pretty much the same as the last run and potentially torrential in nature. The positive again is it rains overnight and is clear by 9am (though there are morning showers in the vicinity) to leave all day for drying.

After that Tuesday morning rain it's completely dry through to gates opening, and here's how it looks just after they have.

There is no rain showing for the festival whatsoever once again.

Max temperature: Monday 21-22, Tuesday 18-19, Wednesday 21, Thursday 22, Friday 24-25, Saturday 22-23, Sunday 19-20

Summary: We still wait to find out how bad the rain will be in the early hours of Tuesday. This is going to be very important.

We still enjoy perfect festival conditions again, but that temperatures keep being downgraded a little in each run too, if you believe the GFS, so it's slightly concerned as a trend and we really don't want that to keep happening.

We do have lovely conditions - especially on Friday, and it will be warm overnight. Still need a degree or two on Sunday for me.

High pressure is better in this run on the Sunday, but we remain at risk. We continue....

What are your concerns? If it keeps being downgraded what would it mean? 

[p.pete]

4 minutes ago, briddj said:

... that temperatures keep being downgraded a little in each run too, if you believe the GFS, so it's slightly concerned as a trend and we really don't want that to keep happening.

Is there any less volatility in lower temperatures? Obviously you're looking at a trend that has kept going in the same direction, and if it drops too far then we're cold. But, if the models fix at a more average temperature are we more likely to actually get that in actuality as opposed to a blistering sun prediction which may actually give us storms / volatility when it changes from forecast to what we get... 

[stopwn1981]

Still doesn’t count till Countryfile but which Baker will turn up...

[Wurzelcat]

I'm still very nervous about that Tuesday night rain. Even if it stops by 9am Wednesday if it's torrential it will be very damp with zero drying time before tens of thousands on people start traipsing across it!

What happened to that run this morning when it was gone? Why is it back?

[briddj]

4 minutes ago, p.pete said:

Is there any less volatility in lower temperatures? Obviously you're looking at a trend that has kept going in the same direction, and if it drops too far then we're cold. But, if the models fix at a more average temperature are we more likely to actually get that in actuality as opposed to a blistering sun prediction which may actually give us storms / volatility when it changes from forecast to what we get... 

 

5 minutes ago, doodlesbyben said:

What are your concerns? If it keeps being downgraded what would it mean? 

I want to be warm, not in temperatures that are below average for the time of year!

[briddj]

1 minute ago, Wurzelcat said:

I'm still very nervous about that Tuesday night rain. Even if it stops by 9am Wednesday if it's torrential it will be very damp with zero drying time before tens of thousands on people start traipsing across it!

What happened to that run this morning when it was gone? Why is it back?

The rain is due to stop by 9am on Tuesday, that's 23 hours drying time?

[p.pete]

1 minute ago, briddj said:

 

I want to be warm, not in temperatures that are below average for the time of year!

So there's nothing sciency to your concerns? Yes, warm for me too please 

[Nobody Interesting]

2 minutes ago, briddj said:

 

I want to be warm, not in temperatures that are below average for the time of year!

Today where we live it was 20 degrees, below average, but humidity building in. It felt warm in t-shirt and shorts walking around.

Add that to a large crowd or in a tent with dancing and that becomes hot.

20 degrees is fine, anything up to 25 is manageable, above that......................... ouch

[briddj]

1 minute ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Today where we live it was 20 degrees, below average, but humidity building in. It felt warm in t-shirt and shorts walking around.

Add that to a large crowd or in a tent with dancing and that becomes hot.

20 degrees is fine, anything up to 25 is manageable, above that......................... ouch

20 degress is fine at 3pm. Won't be like that most days at 2am.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

There is a fine line with temps though, 28/29/30s look nice on paper but in reality are less than ideal for a Glastonbury. Anything below 20 is a bit cold, I’d say around 22/23 is actually perfect.

Basically I’m Jeremy from peep show.

[briddj]

Just now, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

There is a fine line with temps though, 28/29/30s look nice on paper but in reality are less than ideal for a Glastonbury. Anything below 20 is a bit cold, I’d say around 22/23 is actually perfect.

Basically I’m Jeremy from peep show.

What we have now (bar Sunday) is perfect. But we are on the downgrade a tickle in each run (if you believe the GFS).

[Nobody Interesting]

3 minutes ago, briddj said:

20 degress is fine at 3pm. Won't be like that most days at 2am.

Glad about that, cos it means sleep can be had. Add 2 degrees to forecast temps due to packed tents and body heat.

All will be well.

[Nobody Interesting]

2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

There is a fine line with temps though, 28/29/30s look nice on paper but in reality are less than ideal for a Glastonbury. Anything below 20 is a bit cold, I’d say around 22/23 is actually perfect.

Basically I’m Jeremy from peep show.

 

Just now, briddj said:

What we have now (bar Sunday) is perfect. But we are on the downgrade a tickle in each run (if you believe the GFS).

What were the temps in 2017 bar Wednesday. I thought they were lower than average?

Felt quite warm to me most of the time at stages and overnight too apart from Weds into Thursday over night.

[gherkin8r]

Think the shift in expectations given the last few days of forecasting has skewed what we think is good/bad. 

A month or so ago I was looking for an ideal scenario ofdecent ground conditions upon arrival, ideally 20-25 temps and largely dry across the festival with sporadic showers more than acceptable and probably inevitable. 

At the moment all of those criteria seem likely to be met with only the end of the festival having the potential for more rain and lower temps. Given we are still a week out from that point there was never going to be any certainty over that part of the festival anyway. 

[MrHew]

10 minutes ago, briddj said:

 

I want to be warm, not in temperatures that are below average for the time of year!

Me too. But anything above 15 is warm enough for shorts and tshirt for me. 20 brings out the sandals. Over 25 bring me to melting.

Hope you get your warm comfort zone as a reward for your excellent reporting.

[bombfrog]

5 minutes ago, briddj said:

What we have now (bar Sunday) is perfect. But we are on the downgrade a tickle in each run (if you believe the GFS).

So how does this work, is it the case that the predictions are a best guess and can randomly be a bit out in either direction, it's just luck that the last few have gone down not up, or is there a "trend behind the trend" which will keep the downgrades coming for some reason?

[Cooter]

54 minutes ago, amfy said:

Sorry Cooter but on what planet was that moderate to heavy? Heavy rain at Glastonbury is like having a bucket of water poured over your head! I am in T shirt shorts & hi viz  & haven’t even put an extra layer on!

Didn't say it was cold, I'm in shorts and flipflops, was moderate to heavy rain where I was though. Cleared up now tho but slight rain drop here and there.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Cooter

[briddj]

9 minutes ago, bombfrog said:

So how does this work, is it the case that the predictions are a best guess and can randomly be a bit out in either direction, it's just luck that the last few have gone down not up, or is there a "trend behind the trend" which will keep the downgrades coming for some reason?

Dunno. I just don't like it getting worse!

[TokiDoki]

The ICON and HIRLAM models both show the heavy rain for early hours on Tuesday moving up from the South and hitting well over to the East, over the London area, and missing the festival. The EURO4 seems to show this too although hasn't updated since 00z today. Those models are probably more reliable than the GFS in the short term so i'm not too worried about it.

Edit: AROME also shows this, and also a lighter area of rain moving over the festival site on Tuesday morning (after about 7am)

Edited June 23, 2019 by liquuid_fusion

[Beeefy]

Random question and probably in the wrong chat but...

 

Getting a coach for the first time this year from Cardiff leaving at 1pm. I think I saw somewhere that we will go through the yellow gate. Is it separate for people with coach ticks or do we go in with people who have driven?? 

 

I was was hoping we might not have to que as much with coach ticks

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Beeefy said:

Random question and probably in the wrong chat but...

 

Getting a coach for the first time this year from Cardiff leaving at 1pm. I think I saw somewhere that we will go through the yellow gate. Is it separate for people with coach ticks or do we go in with people who have driven?? 

 

I was was hoping we might not have to que as much with coach ticks

Probably in the wrong chat?

[Scott129]

2 minutes ago, Beeefy said:

Random question and probably in the wrong chat but...

 

Getting a coach for the first time this year from Cardiff leaving at 1pm. I think I saw somewhere that we will go through the yellow gate. Is it separate for people with coach ticks or do we go in with people who have driven?? 

 

I was was hoping we might not have to que as much with coach ticks

Its not a seperate queue (iirc) but you do get dropped at the top of the hill so its slightly quicker. At the time you should arrive I cant see queue's being massive anyway, although could be wrong

[Euphoricape]

Met office and BBC arent jumping on board with lower temperatures. Met office showing 30 degrees and glorious sunshine for thursday/friday. Using more reliable models maybe? (Hopefully)?

 

Having said that Saturday is saying 21 degrees.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Euphoricape

[Wurzelcat]

38 minutes ago, briddj said:

The rain is due to stop by 9am on Tuesday, that's 23 hours drying time?

I thought it was Tuesday into Wednesday, that's better then

 

[Rubber Soldier]

16 minutes ago, Beeefy said:

Random question and probably in the wrong chat but...

 

Getting a coach for the first time this year from Cardiff leaving at 1pm. I think I saw somewhere that we will go through the yellow gate. Is it separate for people with coach ticks or do we go in with people who have driven?? 

 

I was was hoping we might not have to que as much with coach ticks

Why would you not have to queue as much with coach tickets?