The Weather Thread 2019

[Lucyjane83]

16 hours ago, andymk said:

While 2010 was roasting, there were times at night I was absolutely shivering. The transition from very hot days didn’t help but it did feel very cold some nights and just my hoody didn’t cut it

 

Sorry, few pages late but I was absolutely freezing at night in 2010. Think it was a mix of mild sunburn/sunstroke and the totally clear evening. Went to bed layered up every night and woke up sweltering at about 5am every day. 

[tumbles]

7 minutes ago, gherkin8r said:

Apologies for my confusion but there are so many models, forecasts etc floating about at the minute it's hard to keep up or even know what to believe but... 

What are we thinking the rainfall looks like (and indeed any subsequent weather) leading up to people arriving on Wednesday and Thursday? I suppose the question is more what is the ground likely to be like across the Wednesday and Thursday for people arriving?

Some rain today, possibly light now. Some on and off tomorrow, possibly heavy overnight into tues. Then dry, warming up through to very warm Friday.  Dry over weekend at moment. Could change. 

[briddj]

47 minutes ago, tumbles said:

That’s max temps. Realistically could be low 20s all festival. 

But will feel a lot more due to the humidity. Swings and roundabouts.

[tumbles]

Looks like worst of rain today is going to avoid Pilton yet again 

[Hugh Jass]

13 minutes ago, briddj said:

Here's the GFS 06Z.

 

High pressure: Same as before in that it is high until it starts to slip away on Friday but higher pressure. Very similar to the previous run, but again the pressure is not quite as high on the Sunday.

 

Precipitation: Some rain today from 3pm through until the early hours of Monday. Dry on Monday, but the torrential rain is now back in the early hours of Tuesday. But it clears after 9am and has the whole day to dry. However, temperatures downgraded very slightly again for Tuesday to just 20.

 

It's then dry all day Wednesday, and this is what it looks like when the gates open:

 

 

Festival is again completely dry all the way through.

 

This is how we look on Saturday afternoon, for instance:

 

 

Temperatures: Today 21, Monday 21-22, Tuesday 20, Wednesday 22, Thursday 23, Friday 25, Saturday 22-23, Sunday 19-20

 

Summary: So the heavy rain overnight on Tuesday is back again, but it is impossible to say how much it will be and where it will hit. And temperatures of 20 on the Tuesday are great for drying too. It's not like anyone is going to be trudging over the grass.

 

Slight worry that temps have notched down again at the start of this week - wouldn't want that trend to continue as we go through the runs.

 

And there is still uncertainly about where the low will actually be at the weekend.

 

But, right now, we still have perfect festival conditions. But I'd still prefer 21 on Sunday, as we're currently below the seasonal average for that day.

 

 

Stick! Stick! Godammit Stick!

[tumbles]

I’m guessing other runs are sticking with more heat as the BBC have upped the temps to 28 and cloudless on Friday 

[TokiDoki]

As a weather geek i'm on one hand quite disappointed that the heatwave has been downgraded to low  - mid 20s, especially when nearby northern France looks like it will be breaking temperature records this week. But these temperatures are far more suitable for a comfortable festival, so on the other hand I'm very happy with the current GFS output.

It looks largely dry during the festival which is the main thing.

The torrential rain forecast for Tuesday early hours is somewhat of an outlier looking at the 06z ensembles. The ensemble mean is showing rain at that time too, but a lot less - so hopefully the ground won't get too wet or churned up on Tuesday.

There's a few precipitation spikes on Wednesday and Saturday to watch out for too.

[bigfurbdogg]

Those nutcases on Nerdweather have locked the model outputs thread now and moved it to a new thread. The plume’s all getting a bit much for them. 

[briddj]

4 minutes ago, bigfurbdogg said:

Those nutcases on Nerdweather have locked the model outputs thread now and moved it to a new thread. The plume’s all getting a bit much for them. 

The bloke getting annoyed when someone posts something that ISN'T EXACTLY about the models is brilliant.

[tumbles]

Just now, briddj said:

The bloke getting annoyed when someone posts something that ISN'T EXACTLY about the models is brilliant.

We should send The Nal over, he’d have piss boiling within the hour 

[Hugh Jass]

Questions I never thought I’d ask:

What time is Countryfile on?

[sprocketrocket]

Just now, Hugh Jass said:

Questions I never thought I’d ask:

What time is Countryfile on?

Boycott coutryphile 

 

[danbailey80]

I hate c**tphile. It's just the BBC weather. Nothing new. Is it even live? 

[4AssedMonkey]

That latest forecast has me all giddy. Almost perfection. Please let it be right. ??

[Radi0Head]

1 hour ago, Fork_UK said:

Ah ok.  I didn't realise some of it was tarmac.  I've never been.  Is it held in the actual race circuit, then?

Yup I think it’s Donington park racetrack. 

The stages aren’t on the track.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Radi0Head

[stopwn1981]

Have netweather closed their forum on the start of summer?

[Nobody Interesting]

22 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

Questions I never thought I’d ask:

What time is Countryfile on?

Ignore Countryfile, it only gos to Friday. Wait til 9-10pm tonight and the weather for the week  ahead will be n the website and that will go through the entire festival.

[briddj]

19 minutes ago, danbailey80 said:

I hate c**tphile. It's just the BBC weather. Nothing new. Is it even live? 

Nope, recorded hours earlier so already out of date. Also, there's no chance it will be able to give any certainty for next weekend.

[Mr.Tease]

Country file used to be the gospel on these threads, but nowadays we have much more detailed, wide ranging, up to date sources of info, it was rendered obsolete years ago! 

[Tranquility of Solitude]

@briddj great work on this, really appreciate it. However.......

[briddj]

3 minutes ago, Tranquility of Solitude said:

@briddj great work on this, really appreciate it. However.......

 

Kaarrrrrrruuuuuulllllll

[Kizzie]

6 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Country file used to be the gospel on these threads, but nowadays we have much more detailed, wide ranging, up to date sources of info, it was rendered obsolete years ago! 

Kind of a tradition to watch it though, got to be done tonight for old times sake.

 

[Mr.Tease]

7 minutes ago, Tranquility of Solitude said:

@briddj great work on this, really appreciate it. However.......

Should have listened to his dad- let's not all repeat the mistakes of Carl

[Mr.Tease]

2 minutes ago, Kizzie said:

Kind of a tradition to watch it though, got to be done tonight for old times sake.

 

It is, but I've secretly hated that show all these years and always resented having to watch it for the Glastonbury weather forecast! 

[Kizzie]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

It is, but I've secretly hated that show all these years and always resented having to watch it for the Glastonbury weather forecast! 

Oh, We'll only be watching the weather forecast, the rest of it is evil.