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The Weather Thread 2019


sedra

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3 minutes ago, briddj said:

I'm not even bothering with a full 06Z update. It's too depressing. We go again at 5.30ish......

I trust the ECM though....

We'd better hope that the GPS is run by Trump like incompetent liars, because their forecasts are getting worse and worse

Edited by Mr.Tease
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Exec summary at the moment for anyone not following the ups and downs:

- There's a big low in the Atlantic which is drawing up the hot air from Africa across Europe

- ECM and UKMO models show that low staying out over the Atlantic, keeping high pressure over us and bringing dry, warm weather for second half of next week across Southern UK (giving us great conditions)

- GFS model did agree until late yesterday, but is now producing models that show that low coming in over the UK bringing a lot of rain to West Country

- This is why some sites are showing great weather at the same time as others are showing shit weather

So essentially it's all still on a knife edge, and we're desperately hoping that the GFS will start to agree with ECM and UKMO rather than the other way around.

And that's all the weather. 

 

Edited by Glasto Weatherwatch
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Netweather: " While the GFS can’t be totally forgotten about, it just seems a little messy at the moment! Guess we’ll see though"

" ECM is a peach this morning... The plume hits us literally directly! And that Azores ridging by 10 is evident yet again... I'm led to believe ukmo is also a beauty... What more could we wish for!!  "

" 06z again an improvement on the previous two runs, although still not as good as ECM and UKMO "

 

 

To summarise, the Netweather experts seem convinced the hot plume will eventually win out at the end of next week, rather than what we are saying on the GFS.

While they say the 06Z is an "improvement on the previous two runs" they are not looking for rain in Pilton!

For the record, 06Z temperatures are Wednesday 25, Thursday 26-27, Friday 23-24, Saturday 24, Sunday 19-20. It's just the rain we need to get sorted. Those temperatures are fine for us.

Edited by briddj
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1 minute ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Exec summary at the moment for anyone not following the ups and downs:

- There's a big low in the Atlantic which is drawing up the hot air from Africa across Europe

- ECM and UKMO models show that low staying out over the Atlantic, bringing dry, warm weather for second half of next week across Southern UK and giving us great conditions

- GFS model did agree until late yesterday, but is now producing models that show that low coming in over the UK bringing a lot of rain to West Country

- This is why some sites are showing great weather at the same time as others are showing shit weather

So essentially it's all still on a knife edge, and we're desperately hoping that the GFS will start to agree with ECM and UKMO rather than the other way around.

And that's all the weather. 

 

We still have a chance then!

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Just now, lazzareo said:

What happened to the forecast of no rain and lots of sun?  

There's a system of wet stuck out to the west of us - each run places it slightly differently and determines whether we get wet or not so pretty much each run is alternating wet/dry

Some of the other models are predicting it'll get pushed around the top of us instead

As such remains uncertain - plan for all things, will probably be fine.

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