The Weather Thread 2019

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

Ugh, Friday into Saturday rain. FFS

[fred quimby]

Knew it would all change again. 

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

And a Saturday apocalypse. This run can fuck right off. 

[tumbles]

Saturday. Oh. My. God. 

[BambooShanks]

4 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

And a Saturday apocalypse. This run can fuck right off. 

And off it will fuck.  I never gave the 12z run much truck, it's all about the 00z

[frostypaw]

2 minutes ago, tumbles said:

Saturday. Oh. My. God. 

You had to go have that feeling

[fred quimby]

Oh man. This is doing me in

[tumbles]

Just now, frostypaw said:

You had to go have that feeling

40mm shit storm potentially. This run as @glasto-weatherwatch said can fuck right off. 

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

Then rain on Sunday!

So 12z is rain starting Friday afternoon, and basically then all weekend with some flood level rain on Saturday.

EVERYONE PANIC PANIC EVERYONE THE WORLD IS ENDING PAGING THE NAL COME IN THE NAL YOUR TIME HAS ARRIVED

[tumbles]

Light rain/drizzle most of Sunday,  temps down to around 18-20

[bigfurbdogg]

nerdweather lads saying UKMO run looks dry still? (if i'm reading it correctly)

[Splatt]

It’s over. 

[Mr.Tease]

4 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Then rain on Sunday!

So 12z is rain starting Friday afternoon, and basically then all weekend with some flood level rain on Saturday.

EVERYONE PANIC PANIC EVERYONE THE WORLD IS ENDING PAGING THE NAL COME IN THE NAL YOUR TIME HAS ARRIVED

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

1 minute ago, bigfurbdogg said:

nerdweather lads saying UKMO run looks dry still? (if i'm reading it correctly)

In my experience UKMO is better than GFS at short ranges. But next week isn't quite short range yet.

12z and 06z are so totally different that it will all change again - just would have been nice after recent runs to get consistency so we can relax a bit.

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, Splatt said:

It’s over. 

[semmtexx]

4 hours ago, kalifire said:

Hard to keep up with all this. I’m in London where it’s very warm. Proper shorts and t-shirt weather. On my way here I was warned the weather was awful. Now it’s going to be a heatwave at Glastonbury?

?

Weren't you once British? Has the wonderful antipodean weather made you forget??!! I may be talking total rubbish though!!!  ?

[stopwn1981]

None of these runs will include the huge thunderstorms and flood risk that will form randomly for the 3 days before gates open and possibly beyond if Gav is to be believed. 

What a mess.

[BambooShanks]

@The Nal right now

 

[briddj]

So, here's the 12Z in full.

Pressure: As before the high is in command through the week, but unlike in the last run this time the low muscles its way back in over the weekend and that totally changes the forecast. Everything about this Glastonbury is basically hinging on this low and the high pressure being able to win out. The low edging in will bring weather fronts with it on Saturday and Sunday.

Here you see how the yellow circle this time is now closer to the UK and thus lowering the pressure and bringing poorer weather prospects.

Precipitation: Dry all this weekend until 3pm Sunday when the rain arrives - as has been the story for the last two days. Rain during the day not too bad but could be some heavier stuff overnight. But it's clear by daybreak and then essentially dry all day Monday. Ground will be good again. Bit more rain around on Tuesday morning that is through by lunch, the heaviest in the early hours which leaves more day drying time. Essentially clear again bar the odd possible light shower the rest of Tuesday.

Dry overnight into Wednesday morning. This is what it looks like around gates opening time at 9am. Dry and clear.

Now looks to be some light rain around on Wednesday evening from around 6pm, though it's nothing to be concerned about.

Thursday is completely dry.

Friday now has a pocket of rain arriving around 3pm and it is going to stick around for a while on this run unfortunately. It's not particularly heavy at first but there is a very nasty band of rain showing for 9pm Saturday. If you're faint of heart, look away now....

Rain clears through by 3am on Sunday morning, but then another band sweeps in behind it at midday on Sunday and it's showing as raining consistently all through the final day.

Max Temperature: Saturday 19-20, Sunday 22, Monday 22-23, Tuesday 21-22, Wednesday 26-27, Thursday 24-25, Friday 25-26, Saturday 24-25, Sunday 16-17

Summary: So we have gone from the very top of the rollercoaster to almost the very bottom in six hours. Basically, we've gone from the last forecast having no rain to this forecast raining all the time. It's crucial to note that 7 days out there is no certainty in any of this and it will change again (thank fuck).

Put it this way, we're better having this horror turn now rather than in a few days' time.

What an emotional ride this is.

[bigfurbdogg]

2 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

In my experience UKMO is better than GFS at short ranges. But next week isn't quite short range yet.

12z and 06z are so totally different that it will all change again - just would have been nice after recent runs to get consistency so we can relax a bit.

Fair enough. I stupidly started to let myself believe it was all done and dusted. As you say, it'll change again, no doubt.

[frostypaw]

4 minutes ago, tumbles said:

40mm shit storm potentially. This run as @glasto-weatherwatch said can fuck right off. 

When there's stormy weather around this is what the models do. When the ensemble comes out there'll be a big peak for each run at different times as the rain systems shuffle around

We've got a good chance of being dumped on at some point. It's very unlikely it'll hang around and as we've seen before the site copes

Still.... this should be fun now - going into that final tight spiral

[Ian Gunpowder]

Where are you all getting these weather reports from and what is this 06z, 12z? It's like a different language in here. 

[stuartbert two hats]

25 minutes ago, tumbles said:

Rain on friday afternoon *just* on the fringe of somerset I'd say - much cooler friday leading into weekend. Down to 20ish

20ish is still warm.

[cb4747]

I don’t know why I keep coming back to read this thread ?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

We really fell asleep at the wheel here didn’t we.