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The Weather Thread 2019


sedra

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58 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Rain - unpleasent discomfort, general sense of "this is shite" || Unrelenting Wednesday 2017 temps - health at risk. There is a difference.

Allow people the chance to speak their minds and express their concerns without descending into pithy "chill out/we'll be grand" banality.

Cheers. Up the Reds.

Let's talk about 6..... 

 

 

Days to go :D (yesterday) 

Edited by Mezhyp1
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Here's the 06Z update.

Pressure: A KEY change in this run and really is the opposite to the last one. Rather than the low getting over the UK, the high fights back this time and wins the day, keeping the low out to the south west with most of the rain. The high now STAYS OVER THE UK!

The UK was yellow at this time in the last run:

image.thumb.png.55d6e7ba11d4856a3aeeae32f1cccf86.png

Precipitation: There some heavy rain showing for Sunday night now through to midnight, but with the temperatures on Monday (22-23) that would dry up quickly. However, there is another band of heavy rain overnight into Tuesday lasting to lunchtime, though Pilton looks to be on the edge of the worst of it. Would again be excellent drying conditions throughout the rest of Tuesday with good temperatues. 

This is the worst point as it shows now.

image.thumb.png.6b345b045d224ad8bfaf55664ee7f970.png

 

Now no rain overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. This is how it looks just after the gates have opening, with temperatures lower than previously stated at 20-21:

image.thumb.png.3ed96aa7de5112e6e604aeba60fb1e0b.png

Dry all day Wednesday. Chance of a few minor showers in the small hours of Thursday and in the morning to keep the dust down. But really inconsequential. This rain would be gone in no time with the temps. It's nothing.

image.thumb.png.5db0df1106bcb4148fb15a197153fa4b.png

Dry all day Friday and Saturday now. That awful rain of the last two runs has GONE.

Some minor rain in the early hours of Sunday, and the chance of a little bit of Sunday morning rain before it clears up to be a dry and bright Sunday.

Max Temperature: Saturday 19-20, Sunday 22-23, Monday 22-23, Tuesday 25-26, Wednesday 27-28, Thursday 27-28, Friday 26, Saturday 25-26, Sunday 22-23

Summary: So many people will be delighted to hear that in this run the temperatures have dropped a little. Still very warm for arrival, but not quite so as oppressive. Yes, a bit more rain overnight into Tuesday, but it really is so warm and the fact the rain is falling in the night with minimal build traffic is a positive.

Overall, this is definitely a big upgrade on this morning, with more comfortable temperatures and the removal of the heavy Saturday rain. Also the low pressure no longer gets back over the UK. That rain into Tuesday morning should not be troublesome for arrivals on Wednesday, and the Thursday morning rain is nothing really.

As this update tells you, though, we still have a LOT of twists and turns to come about what is going to happen Friday-Sunday.

 

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3 minutes ago, briddj said:

 

 

This is the worst point as it shows now.

image.thumb.png.6b345b045d224ad8bfaf55664ee7f970.png

 

 

Great work again @briddj

 

Do you reckon this is the storms that are forecast, rather than being a band of rain being blown in? 

If it's the former, I'm guessing it could land anywhere...?

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storms could be likely due to the temperarture, the CAPE charts show this 

here is a storm risk chart for Tuesday from the 0z - I will be interested to see the 06z storm output when it arrives

 

SomerP.jpg

Edited by Aragorn
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7 minutes ago, Titters said:

Great work again @briddj

 

Do you reckon this is the storms that are forecast, rather than being a band of rain being blown in? 

If it's the former, I'm guessing it could land anywhere...?

Yeah difficult to know what will really happen with the heavy rain in the first half of next week.

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12 minutes ago, briddj said:

Here's the 06Z update.

Pressure: A KEY change in this run and really is the opposite to the last one. Rather than the low getting over the UK, the high fights back this time and wins the day, keeping the low out to the south west with most of the rain. The high now STAYS OVER THE UK!

The UK was yellow at this time in the last run:

image.thumb.png.55d6e7ba11d4856a3aeeae32f1cccf86.png

Precipitation: There some heavy rain showing for Sunday night now through to midnight, but with the temperatures on Monday (22-23) that would dry up quickly. However, there is another band of heavy rain overnight into Tuesday lasting to lunchtime, though Pilton looks to be on the edge of the worst of it. Would again be excellent drying conditions throughout the rest of Tuesday with good temperatues. 

This is the worst point as it shows now.

image.thumb.png.6b345b045d224ad8bfaf55664ee7f970.png

 

Now no rain overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. This is how it looks just after the gates have opening, with temperatures lower than previously stated at 20-21:

image.thumb.png.3ed96aa7de5112e6e604aeba60fb1e0b.png

Dry all day Wednesday. Chance of a few minor showers in the small hours of Thursday and in the morning to keep the dust down. But really inconsequential. This rain would be gone in no time with the temps. It's nothing.

image.thumb.png.5db0df1106bcb4148fb15a197153fa4b.png

Dry all day Friday and Saturday now. That awful rain of the last two runs has GONE.

Some minor rain in the early hours of Sunday, and the chance of a little bit of Sunday morning rain before it clears up to be a dry and bright Sunday.

Max Temperature: Saturday 19-20, Sunday 22-23, Monday 22-23, Tuesday 25-26, Wednesday 27-28, Thursday 27-28, Friday 26, Saturday 25-26, Sunday 22-23

Summary: So many people will be delighted to hear that in this run the temperatures have dropped a little. Still very warm for arrival, but not quite so as oppressive. Yes, a bit more rain overnight into Tuesday, but it really is so warm and the fact the rain is falling in the night with minimal build traffic is a positive.

Overall, this is definitely a big upgrade on this morning, with more comfortable temperatures and the removal of the heavy Saturday rain. Also the low pressure no longer gets back over the UK. That rain into Tuesday morning should not be troublesome for arrivals on Wednesday, and the Thursday morning rain is nothing really.

As this update tells you, though, we still have a LOT of twists and turns to come about what is going to happen Friday-Sunday.

 

giphy.gif?cid=8fc3c8975d0cb6216a574d6d59

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