Jump to content

The Weather Thread 2019


sedra

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Kinkyinuit said:

Surely at those temps, the mud would dry out quickly, right?

Probably. Market areas would probably stay messy but other areas would quickly turn into that flat, super bouncy mud. 

2005 flood was recovered by Sunday bar markets and Other Stage (always worst spot). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Sunday dry now too.

So in this run:

- World ending rain Monday night

- Drizzle Tuesday night

- Otherwise, dry and toasty

So if we get lucky Tuesday, happy days. Otherwise, 2005 style swamp but lovely weather. 

How many mm is there in world ending rain? That could be hugely problematic as in 2005 it took about 2 days to dry from the thunderous flood- if the rainfall is anywhere near that, then it will be chaos for those arriving by car on tuesday and even through to Wednesday

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bet it all changes again tomorrow :)

Odd one is I am watching more now as a ticket has turned up for Mrs Q (due sadly to 2 of our crew having to drop out). She has been off work a few weeks back when she put her back out which is never in a great state. So she was refusing it as she did not want to play it up again by slipping around in the mud. Now we are looking that she will accept it as it is looking dryer. 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the GFS 12Z.

High pressure: Similar, perhaps slightly better than the last run. Pressure building to a high on Wednesday. The low pressure is now not making any real inroads until the Saturday morning and then, as before the high then fights back and later on Saturday it is building again. Back in higher pressure by Sunday.

This is the low now completely shunted out on the Thursday, when it was before further east towards the UK.

image.png.6fb4b2f3e2a37550b8587543a54f6640.png

Precipitation: Same as the last few runs. Dry through to Sunday at 3pm when rain arrives BUT now it is isolated to a small amount on Sunday afternoon and a couple of overnight showers. This is a BIG downgrade on the rain on previous runs.

However.... there is now the danger of some torrential rain late on Monday night through to Tuesday morning. That is not so good. The positive is it would fall overnight, so the heat of the daytime would start working on the drying process like a tumble dryer immediately. It would not take that long to correct with the grass not in use at 25-26 degrees.

Tuesday day essentially dry with some rain late in the day after 9pm, but it shouldn't be much. Possibility of very light showers overnight that essentially amount to nothing.

This is how it looks when gates open with temperatures at 9am of 24!!!

image.png.2a9d3b24c71accc9c7fa4225a82411ff.png

There is basically NO rain on Wednesday after the gates open but temperatues are still showing as 26-27 at midnight!

image.png.05b8aabdf141299673250a11e3c2f26f.png

 

and there is ZERO RAIN of any note in the forecast for the festival. The Sunday rain is now insignificant. 

image.png.dcc74e08d2b754c7a7e008e8e59fff2e.png

Temperatures: This Saturday 18-19 and Sunday 22 - ground will be solid again. Monday 22-23, Tuesday 25-26, Wednesday 29, Thursday 29, Friday 23-24, Saturday 23-24 and Sunday 20

In short, we are now: warmer and dryer with the dangerous low pressure further out to the west.

There is the chance that this high pressure gets stronger yet and makes all weekend warm.

We now look surely locked in for the first half of next week BUT everything can still swing either way for the actual festival days.

 

Edited by briddj
  • Upvote 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is the apocalyptic rain people are talking about on the Monday night before the festival.

It looks pretty nasty, but it could yet change course and miss the site. Still a fair few days out, and these kind of thundery downpours are notoriously hard to predict.

This now seems to be the one and only major risk of us seeing serious amounts of mud. If we swerve this, it's not looking like a muddy festival. If it's a direct hit... it might be a little muddy to say the least. But it would soon dry out with the hot weather predicted!

 

ukprec.png

Edited by Sku
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, JoBalls said:

This bloody thread has got more twists and turns than eastenders...

This thread is much more exciting, funnier, intelligently written and serves a purpose. Eastenders is just shit. ?

Edited by mashedonmud
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6-8mph then, maybe higher though coming slightly tangentially down across the valley rather than up through it towards the Bristol Channel. Better than a stable windless environment where moisture will build up and hang in the valley reducing evaporation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...