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The Weather Thread 2019


sedra

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18 minutes ago, matichin said:

Hide in the closest tent and wait for all the stages to start again. 

It's happened before... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/entertainment-arts-28067023/glastonbury-festival-lightning-closes-all-stages

I was in the long drops near the JP when that lightning storm hit. Sat in a metal box my first thought was "I'm going to die having a s**t at Glastonbury".

And what a way to go it would have been.

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1 minute ago, T-Mouse said:

We're talking the muggiest of muggy. Will be absolutely steaming. In the sun it'll be absolutely horrific! BRING IT

I know what's going to happen now - we'll all be absolutely steaming hot and be moaning about it and praying for showers....

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Can't believe what a change from yesterdays doom and gloom. Which means of course there is STILL time for it to all change again.

What is pretty nailed on though - that leaky waterbed gif (aka the ground) from 2016 is definitely not happening at the same point at least (I think that originated the Friday before - anyone got the gif?)

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1 minute ago, Wurzelcat said:

Can't believe what a change from yesterdays doom and gloom. Which means of course there is STILL time for it to all change again.

What is pretty nailed on though - that leaky waterbed gif (aka the ground) from 2016 is definitely not happening at the same point at least (I think that originated the Friday before - anyone got the gif?)

Monday through to Thursday is now getting quite certain I'd say. Still in the lap of the Gods for the weekend but looking good.

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Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Anyone care to place a wager that we'll get hit by a thunderstorm?  Hotter than 2017 and dry just doesn't seem possible.  DOES IT??

No you're bang on. Thunderstorms will be lurking around every corner I fear. They're impossible to forecast with certainty at this distance or even a day before. But the widespread heat puts them on the cards across the whole of the south. We're still very much in the woods. 

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Just now, T-Mouse said:

No you're bang on. Thunderstorms will be lurking around every corner I fear. They're impossible to forecast with certainty at this distance or even a day before. But the widespread heat puts them on the cards across the whole of the south. We're still very much in the woods. 

This certainly isn't one of those nice settled highs like we had last summer.

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Here's the GFS 00Z

Pressure: We now know that the plume is pretty much certain to build in from Monday to its highest point on Wednesday. High pressure still starting to sink down on the Friday but yet again on this run it fights back on Sunday.  

Precipitation: Now bar the odd shower dry until rain hits at 3pm on Sunday - this now too is consistent. Still getting a fair bit of rain from that point on but it fades north by 9am on Monday (Scotland is getting an absolute soaking!), leaving great drying temperatures from that point all day. Essentially dry all day Tuesday too (small threat of morning showers) and COMPLETELY dry through to Saturday night when there is the possibility of a few light showers then and overnight - that would be refreshing! There is a bit more rain which has appeared Sunday day time - not heavy stuff and that can change and it fades out.

Temperatures: Saturday 19-20, Sunday and Monday 22-23, Tuesday 28-29, Wednesday 25, Thursday 29, Friday 22-23, Saturday 21-22, Sunday 20-21

image.thumb.png.3412e2165612bf050b38a8f750dc7aad.png

So it's getting ever-more certain that the start of the festival is going to be VERY hot and dry with the low now further out to the west.

We remain on tenterhooks for the weekend, but there is actually a chance the high pressure could win out and keep the temps high over the weekend too.

Bring that suncream, everyone!

Going to see HOT Chip tonight so I can't do the 12Z or 18Z in full, but I'll be lurking!

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