Flysheet Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 This ⬇️ I’ll take...no rain past Saturday 15th... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bags73 Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 Just been looking at the next 7 days on the MetOffice Hazard Manager site. Headlines are that the wettest day on site will be tomorrow (Thurs), particularly from about 6am until 6pm when it will all have eased off. Totals about 20mm likely there I reckon if the sites gets the most intense bursts but these can just as easily miss and it could be more like 10mm. After that it is mainly dry for the next 7 days. There are a few biggish showers around over the weekend and into next week but they’re short lived and isolated and that’s it. The temperatures go up very gradually over the next 7 days to about 17ish. Not exactly warm but it’s mainly dry. So apart from tomorrow’s rain it’s pretty dry on the site. Whatever happens tomorrow there is enough time for it to recover in the days afterwards barring anything unforeseen and that’s not looking likely. The problem is what happens after next Wed. That’s still in the lap of the Gods. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mufcok Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 I can handle a bit of rain when we're there as long as it isn't constant The biggest things for me are the ground been firm upon arrival and not having to pitch tents in rain/mud Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrundle The Great Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 3 hours ago, brettredmayne said: Awful in Sunderland today The weather or just in general? 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richy24 Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 Would take this for the first couple of days of the festival... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayrshire Chris Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 Ever thought that weather forecasters are sitting in their offices having a laugh. An annual event fucking with the minds of Glastonbury festival goers, seeing which forecast company gets the best reaction? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flysheet Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ayrshire Chris said: Ever thought that weather forecasters are sitting in their offices having a laugh. An annual event fucking with the minds of Glastonbury festival goers, seeing which forecast company gets the best reaction? I’ve run out of upvotes...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, richy24 said: Would take this for the first couple of days of the festival... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BambooShanks Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, The Nal said: The threat of thunderstorms is very very worrying. Will turn the place into a mudbath. A thunderstorm with a biblical 2mm of rain! Best have a word with Noah for some advice about arcs. Looking at the 16 day forecast from Metcheck it's a mixed bag. The reassuring things at the moment are that there's only 3 days of showers over 2mm and they are quite spread out over the 16 days, with the temps increasing (assuming the forecast remains correct) the site should be relatively dry underfoot. This week feels quite critical for the ground conditions. The site missed a massive downpour on friday and seemed to avoid the worst of the rain so far, if it keeps on dodging bullets, we may very well be ok. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gratefulbread Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 This thread is such a rollercoaster of emotions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caribun Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 The weather is so bad that the lovely pear tree in my garden has fallen down. this is putting a serious downer on the lead up to my first festival! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flysheet Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Kinkyinuit said: A thunderstorm with a biblical 2mm of rain! Best have a word with Noah for some advice about arcs. Looking at the 16 day forecast from Metcheck it's a mixed bag. The reassuring things at the moment are that there's only 3 days of showers over 2mm and they are quite spread out over the 16 days, with the temps increasing (assuming the forecast remains correct) the site should be relatively dry underfoot. This week feels quite critical for the ground conditions. The site missed a massive downpour on friday and seemed to avoid the worst of the rain so far, if it keeps on dodging bullets, we may very well be ok. I was just looking at the same thing myself. Whilst there’s rain, there’s not a lot. lap of the gods Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennyhana22 Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 Just now, Caribun said: The weather is so bad that the lovely pear tree in my garden has fallen down. this is putting a serious downer on the lead up to my first festival! I am genuinely sorry for you about this, @Caribun... But trust me - if that becomes a very sad sacrifice that results in your first Glastonbury being dry, you might never know how worth it it was! Ben 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloorFiller Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 Every year I tell myself I won’t get caught up in this thread and will just wait until the weekend before to start paying real attention and every year I’m cursing the gods when it says it’s gonna rain a month before the festival has begun. Fuck this thread. See y’all in half an hour. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarkete Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, gratefulbread said: This thread is such a rollercoaster of emotions. I'm not sure why people do it tbh. I've had years before where I have, always looked for what I want to see in one of the forecasts and of course sometimes it turns out not to be the case. What will be will be, just make sure you've got plenty of layers so you'll be alright warm or cold, some waterproof stuff just in case and then feck it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosieangel Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 38 minutes ago, Padgey said: Looks like the Wellies or Boots thread will be getting bumped up to the top again! Tin hats at the ready! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyT Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 40 minutes ago, Padgey said: Looks like the Wellies or Boots thread will be getting bumped up to the top again! Almost as controversial as the "which day is better thread"* * Definitely Wednesday by the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennyhana22 Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, FloorFiller said: Every year I tell myself I won’t get caught up in this thread and will just wait until the weekend before to start paying real attention and every year I’m cursing the gods when it says it’s gonna rain a month before the festival has begun. Fuck this thread. See y’all in half an hour. This thread is the motorway pile-up to my rubber necking and I hate myself for it. Mostly because, as everyone who is being rational has attested, 14 days out from the festival the forecast is little better than guesswork. If I wasn't fundamentally opposed to censorship, I'd selfishly request that @eFestivals delete the thread!!! Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfaragher Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 As the ECMWF and GEFS medium range forecasts now cover the start of the festival, thought I'd revisit my deeply scientific analysis. Outputs now available from the US GEFS model, the medium-range ECMWF model. Caveats - these models aren't intended for this kind of stuff, the analysis method isn't intended for this kind of stuff, its still a fair way away, and weather is fickle and complicated. Don't base your plans on this or blame me when this turns out to be nonsense. So - the output from the models has been classified into a number of regimes that are used to describe common weather patterns in the UK (things like 'Zonal' or 'Scandinavian High') that usually hang about for a few days. We can associate typical amounts of rainfall, across broad geographic areas, with these regimes. These regimes are (usually!) a bit easier to forecast at long lead times (i.e. for 3 or so weeks away) than specific weather at a specific location. Usually. What you do lose is an idea of what the extremes could be, so basically, if it's going to be a 2007, this won't tell us. I've looked at the regimes, and for the approx location of Glastonbury looked at typical rainfall anomalies for them. For (around) that part of the UK in June, you get on average 50mm of rain. The categories below (driest -> wettest) are based on how much more or less rainfall *per day* they represent. ECMWF Summary - next week bad, clearing up midweek, maybe bring a coat, we'll be fine lads. GEFS Summary - grounds getting nicely softened up for us, trainers all the way come the show. I'll update as and when I can be bothered 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yehbutnobut Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, jfaragher said: As the ECMWF and GEFS medium range forecasts now cover the start of the festival, thought I'd revisit my deeply scientific analysis. Outputs now available from the US GEFS model, the medium-range ECMWF model. Caveats - these models aren't intended for this kind of stuff, the analysis method isn't intended for this kind of stuff, its still a fair way away, and weather is fickle and complicated. Don't base your plans on this or blame me when this turns out to be nonsense. So - the output from the models has been classified into a number of regimes that are used to describe common weather patterns in the UK (things like 'Zonal' or 'Scandinavian High') that usually hang about for a few days. We can associate typical amounts of rainfall, across broad geographic areas, with these regimes. These regimes are (usually!) a bit easier to forecast at long lead times (i.e. for 3 or so weeks away) than specific weather at a specific location. Usually. What you do lose is an idea of what the extremes could be, so basically, if it's going to be a 2007, this won't tell us. I've looked at the regimes, and for the approx location of Glastonbury looked at typical rainfall anomalies for them. For (around) that part of the UK in June, you get on average 50mm of rain. The categories below (driest -> wettest) are based on how much more or less rainfall *per day* they represent. ECMWF Summary - next week bad, clearing up midweek, maybe bring a coat, we'll be fine lads. GEFS Summary - grounds getting nicely softened up for us, trainers all the way come the show. I'll update as and when I can be bothered That's got halt anything work related, kettle on, sit down with beverage, and digest fully written all over it... Will be back shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BambooShanks Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, jfaragher said: SCIENCE! I do love a table. At least from next thursday things look to be improving. 2 minutes ago, yehbutnobut said: That's got halt anything work related, kettle on, sit down with beverage, and digest fully written all over it... Will be back shortly. From what I've read on the state of the ground and glastocam threads, the site is a bit further along the build process than expected so they can take it a bit easier on the ground while the more extreme rainfall is occurring. And each day that passes without a massive deluge, decreases our chances of having anything like the conditions of '16 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Nal Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 YR now showing rain every day from now until Friday 21st. A couple of those days are quite heavy too. Guaranteed mud. https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stocksey Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, The Nal said: YR now showing rain every day from now until Friday 21st. A couple of those days are quite heavy too. Guaranteed mud. https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html your dedication is unwavering. I applaud you sir! ???? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregsyA Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, jfaragher said: As the ECMWF and GEFS medium range forecasts now cover the start of the festival, thought I'd revisit my deeply scientific analysis. Outputs now available from the US GEFS model, the medium-range ECMWF model. Caveats - these models aren't intended for this kind of stuff, the analysis method isn't intended for this kind of stuff, its still a fair way away, and weather is fickle and complicated. Don't base your plans on this or blame me when this turns out to be nonsense. So - the output from the models has been classified into a number of regimes that are used to describe common weather patterns in the UK (things like 'Zonal' or 'Scandinavian High') that usually hang about for a few days. We can associate typical amounts of rainfall, across broad geographic areas, with these regimes. These regimes are (usually!) a bit easier to forecast at long lead times (i.e. for 3 or so weeks away) than specific weather at a specific location. Usually. What you do lose is an idea of what the extremes could be, so basically, if it's going to be a 2007, this won't tell us. I've looked at the regimes, and for the approx location of Glastonbury looked at typical rainfall anomalies for them. For (around) that part of the UK in June, you get on average 50mm of rain. The categories below (driest -> wettest) are based on how much more or less rainfall *per day* they represent. ECMWF Summary - next week bad, clearing up midweek, maybe bring a coat, we'll be fine lads. GEFS Summary - grounds getting nicely softened up for us, trainers all the way come the show. I'll update as and when I can be bothered So what you saying is it cast-iron guaranteed to be perfect conditions, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cb4747 Posted June 12, 2019 Report Share Posted June 12, 2019 I’m addicted to this thread, the ups and downs are really getting me going. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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