The Weather Thread 2019

[Flysheet]

This ⬇️ I’ll take...no rain past Saturday 15th...

 

 

[Bags73]

Just been looking at the next 7 days on the MetOffice Hazard Manager site.   Headlines are that the wettest day on site will be tomorrow (Thurs), particularly from about 6am until 6pm when it will all have eased off.   Totals about 20mm likely there I reckon if the sites gets the most intense bursts but these can just as easily miss and it could be more like 10mm.    After that it is mainly dry for the next 7 days.   There are a few biggish showers around over the weekend and into next week but they’re short lived and isolated and that’s it.    The temperatures go up very gradually over the next 7 days to about 17ish.   Not exactly warm but it’s mainly dry.

So apart from tomorrow’s rain it’s pretty dry on the site.    Whatever happens tomorrow there is enough time for it to recover in the days afterwards barring anything unforeseen and that’s not looking likely.

The problem is what happens after next Wed.  That’s still in the lap of the Gods.   

[mufcok]

I can handle a bit of rain when we're there as long as it isn't constant

The biggest things for me are the ground been firm upon arrival and not having to pitch tents in rain/mud

[Chrundle The Great]

3 hours ago, brettredmayne said:

Awful in Sunderland today

The weather or just in general?

[richy24]

Would take this for the first couple of days of the festival...

 

[Ayrshire Chris]

Ever thought that weather forecasters are sitting in their offices having a laugh. An annual event fucking with the minds of Glastonbury festival goers, seeing which forecast company gets the best reaction? 

[Flysheet]

1 minute ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Ever thought that weather forecasters are sitting in their offices having a laugh. An annual event fucking with the minds of Glastonbury festival goers, seeing which forecast company gets the best reaction? 

I’ve run out of upvotes...?

[fightoffyour]

7 minutes ago, richy24 said:

Would take this for the first couple of days of the festival...

 

[BambooShanks]

13 minutes ago, The Nal said:

The threat of thunderstorms is very very worrying. Will turn the place into a mudbath.

A thunderstorm with a biblical 2mm of rain!

Best have a word with Noah for some advice about arcs.

 

Looking at the 16 day forecast from Metcheck it's a mixed bag.  The reassuring things at the moment are that there's only 3 days of showers over 2mm and they are quite  spread out over the 16 days, with the temps increasing (assuming the forecast remains correct) the site should be relatively dry underfoot.

This week feels quite critical for the ground conditions.  The site missed a massive downpour on friday and seemed to avoid the worst of the rain so far,  if it keeps on dodging bullets, we may very well be ok.

 

[gratefulbread]

This thread is such a rollercoaster of emotions.

[Caribun]

The weather is so bad that the lovely pear tree in my garden has fallen down. this is putting a serious downer on the lead up to my first festival! 

[Flysheet]

7 minutes ago, Kinkyinuit said:

A thunderstorm with a biblical 2mm of rain!

Best have a word with Noah for some advice about arcs.

 

Looking at the 16 day forecast from Metcheck it's a mixed bag.  The reassuring things at the moment are that there's only 3 days of showers over 2mm and they are quite  spread out over the 16 days, with the temps increasing (assuming the forecast remains correct) the site should be relatively dry underfoot.

This week feels quite critical for the ground conditions.  The site missed a massive downpour on friday and seemed to avoid the worst of the rain so far,  if it keeps on dodging bullets, we may very well be ok.

 

I was just looking at the same thing myself. Whilst there’s rain, there’s not a lot.

 

lap of the gods 

[bennyhana22]

Just now, Caribun said:

The weather is so bad that the lovely pear tree in my garden has fallen down. this is putting a serious downer on the lead up to my first festival! 

I am genuinely sorry for you about this, @Caribun...

But trust me - if that becomes a very sad sacrifice that results in your first Glastonbury being dry, you might never know how worth it it was!

Ben

[FloorFiller]

Every year I tell myself I won’t get caught up in this thread and will just wait until the weekend before to start paying real attention and every year I’m cursing the gods when it says it’s gonna rain a month before the festival has begun. 

Fuck this thread. 

See y’all in half an hour.

[clarkete]

2 minutes ago, gratefulbread said:

This thread is such a rollercoaster of emotions.

I'm not sure why people do it tbh.

I've had years before where I have, always looked for what I want to see in one of the forecasts and of course sometimes it turns out not to be the case.

What will be will be, just make sure you've got plenty of layers so you'll be alright warm or cold, some waterproof stuff just in case and then feck it

 

[rosieangel]

38 minutes ago, Padgey said:

Looks like the Wellies or Boots thread will be getting bumped up to the top again! 

Tin hats at the ready!

[JoeyT]

40 minutes ago, Padgey said:

Looks like the Wellies or Boots thread will be getting bumped up to the top again! 

Almost as controversial as the "which day is better thread"*

* Definitely Wednesday by the way 

[bennyhana22]

6 minutes ago, FloorFiller said:

Every year I tell myself I won’t get caught up in this thread and will just wait until the weekend before to start paying real attention and every year I’m cursing the gods when it says it’s gonna rain a month before the festival has begun. 

Fuck this thread. 

See y’all in half an hour.

This thread is the motorway pile-up to my rubber necking and I hate myself for it.

Mostly because, as everyone who is being rational has attested, 14 days out from the festival the forecast is little better than guesswork.

If I wasn't fundamentally opposed to censorship, I'd selfishly request that @eFestivals delete the thread!!!

Ben

[jfaragher]

As the ECMWF and GEFS medium range forecasts now cover the start of the festival, thought I'd revisit my deeply scientific analysis.

Outputs now available from the US GEFS model, the medium-range ECMWF model.  Caveats - these models aren't intended for this kind of stuff, the analysis method isn't intended for this kind of stuff, its still a fair way away, and weather is fickle and complicated.  Don't base your plans on this or blame me when this turns out to be nonsense.  

So - the output from the models has been classified into a number of regimes that are used to describe common weather patterns in the UK (things like 'Zonal' or 'Scandinavian High') that usually hang about for a few days. We can associate typical amounts of rainfall, across broad geographic areas, with these regimes.  These regimes are (usually!) a bit easier to forecast at long lead times (i.e. for 3 or so weeks away) than specific weather at a specific location. Usually.  What you do lose is an idea of what the extremes could be, so basically, if it's going to be a 2007, this won't tell us.

I've looked at the regimes, and for the approx location of Glastonbury looked at typical rainfall anomalies for them.  For (around) that part of the UK in June, you get on average 50mm of rain.  The categories below (driest -> wettest) are based on how much more or less rainfall *per day* they represent.

ECMWF

Summary - next week bad, clearing up midweek, maybe bring a coat, we'll be fine lads.

GEFS

Summary - grounds getting nicely softened up for us, trainers all the way come the show.

I'll update as and when I can be bothered

[yehbutnobut]

6 minutes ago, jfaragher said:

As the ECMWF and GEFS medium range forecasts now cover the start of the festival, thought I'd revisit my deeply scientific analysis.

Outputs now available from the US GEFS model, the medium-range ECMWF model.  Caveats - these models aren't intended for this kind of stuff, the analysis method isn't intended for this kind of stuff, its still a fair way away, and weather is fickle and complicated.  Don't base your plans on this or blame me when this turns out to be nonsense.  

So - the output from the models has been classified into a number of regimes that are used to describe common weather patterns in the UK (things like 'Zonal' or 'Scandinavian High') that usually hang about for a few days. We can associate typical amounts of rainfall, across broad geographic areas, with these regimes.  These regimes are (usually!) a bit easier to forecast at long lead times (i.e. for 3 or so weeks away) than specific weather at a specific location. Usually.  What you do lose is an idea of what the extremes could be, so basically, if it's going to be a 2007, this won't tell us.

I've looked at the regimes, and for the approx location of Glastonbury looked at typical rainfall anomalies for them.  For (around) that part of the UK in June, you get on average 50mm of rain.  The categories below (driest -> wettest) are based on how much more or less rainfall *per day* they represent.

ECMWF

Summary - next week bad, clearing up midweek, maybe bring a coat, we'll be fine lads.

GEFS

Summary - grounds getting nicely softened up for us, trainers all the way come the show.

I'll update as and when I can be bothered

That's got halt anything work related, kettle on, sit down with beverage, and digest fully written all over it... Will be back shortly.

[BambooShanks]

2 minutes ago, jfaragher said:

SCIENCE!

I do love a table. 

At least from next thursday things look to be improving. 

2 minutes ago, yehbutnobut said:

That's got halt anything work related, kettle on, sit down with beverage, and digest fully written all over it... Will be back shortly.

From what I've read on the state of the ground and glastocam threads, the site is a bit further along the build process than expected so they can take it a bit easier on the ground while the more extreme rainfall is occurring.  And each day that passes without a massive deluge, decreases our chances of having anything like the conditions of '16

[The Nal]

YR now showing rain every day from now until Friday 21st. A couple of those days are quite heavy too. 

Guaranteed mud.

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

[Stocksey]

3 minutes ago, The Nal said:

YR now showing rain every day from now until Friday 21st. A couple of those days are quite heavy too. 

Guaranteed mud.

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

your dedication is unwavering.  I applaud you sir! ????

[GregsyA]

23 minutes ago, jfaragher said:

As the ECMWF and GEFS medium range forecasts now cover the start of the festival, thought I'd revisit my deeply scientific analysis.

Outputs now available from the US GEFS model, the medium-range ECMWF model.  Caveats - these models aren't intended for this kind of stuff, the analysis method isn't intended for this kind of stuff, its still a fair way away, and weather is fickle and complicated.  Don't base your plans on this or blame me when this turns out to be nonsense.  

So - the output from the models has been classified into a number of regimes that are used to describe common weather patterns in the UK (things like 'Zonal' or 'Scandinavian High') that usually hang about for a few days. We can associate typical amounts of rainfall, across broad geographic areas, with these regimes.  These regimes are (usually!) a bit easier to forecast at long lead times (i.e. for 3 or so weeks away) than specific weather at a specific location. Usually.  What you do lose is an idea of what the extremes could be, so basically, if it's going to be a 2007, this won't tell us.

I've looked at the regimes, and for the approx location of Glastonbury looked at typical rainfall anomalies for them.  For (around) that part of the UK in June, you get on average 50mm of rain.  The categories below (driest -> wettest) are based on how much more or less rainfall *per day* they represent.

ECMWF

Summary - next week bad, clearing up midweek, maybe bring a coat, we'll be fine lads.

GEFS

Summary - grounds getting nicely softened up for us, trainers all the way come the show.

I'll update as and when I can be bothered

So what you saying is it cast-iron guaranteed to be perfect conditions, right?

[cb4747]

I’m addicted to this thread, the ups and downs are really getting me going.