The Weather Thread 2019

[bigfurbdogg]

The models looking better this morning on the netweather forum, possible way out of this unsettled period ??

The models show another week of dross but mid June could be the turning point according to the Gfs / Ecm00z ops with a more summery second half of the month or at least containing some high pressure and warmth, particularly for southern uk..fingers crossed all of the uk enjoys some sustained fine and warm weather before June is over!

[simonizer]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

It's the BBC that are talking sense.

Monday 24 June – Sunday 7 July

Becoming warmer and drier for most.

The end of June and start of July should see high pressure building more widely across Europe, with Atlantic low pressure systems generally staying to the north-west of the UK. Most parts of England and Wales can expect to see a lot of dry weather, and temperatures will tend to be above normal in all areas, with southern and eastern areas likely to be warmest.
The low pressure systems passing to our north-west may bring occasional spells of rain and some windy weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland, but both countries can expect a fair amount of dry and calm weather, and it will be warmer than normal too.
As always, there is some uncertainty for this part of the forecast. One reason for this is that there is a tendency for low pressure systems affecting the UK in mid-June to linger for the rest of the month. So, whilst we expect the weather to become drier and warmer, there is a chance that it may remain unsettled and cool through to the start of July, with some spells of warm, dry weather, albeit perhaps rather short-lived.

OH my , I want to see this in a fortnight .

[Titters]

Hi guys. 

As suggested by @JoeyT - I've updated the Rainfall records summary table I put together in 2017...

The historical data is taken from here: 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/download.html

And the 2019 June figures are taken from here: 

https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/?site_id=3017226

Neither are Pilton specific, but they give a general view of how wet the weather was in the build up to the festival. The rain yesterday seemed to hit the weather station (which is just west of the M5) more heavily that on the ground reporters @deebeedoobee, @pilton digger and Big Dog would suggest. If anyone knows a closer weather station that records rainfall, please let me know. 

Some thoughts... 

2007 shows that grim mud will still arrive if heavy rain continues to fall over festival weekend, even if the build up is dry. 

2009, 2010 and 2017 show that a dry spring will let the ground easily cope with a wet first week of June. Like we've had so far in 2019. 

2011 and 2016 show that a pretty soggy fortnight prior to gates opening will result in tough conditions. 

So.... As has been suggested many times, the table backs up the view that if the wet stuff can keep calm over the next couple of weeks, the pretty rubbish start to June will be forgotten. 

Also, if we'd had a festival in 2018, it would have been like tarmac. Conversely, 2012 would have been snorkels and canoes all round. (Seriously, compare the numbers to 2016 and 2007...). 

 

[calamitymaud]

So this is the most rainfall we've had 3 weeks out... since pre 2007? Not the best start to the run up...!

Still, better to have it 3 weeks out than 1 week prior (2016 - sheesh).

[scaryclaireyfairy]

Holy crap will you look at 2012! That would have been apocalyptic!

[Titters]

2 minutes ago, calamitymaud said:

So this is the most rainfall we've had 3 weeks out... since pre 2007? Not the best start to the run up...!

Still, better to have it 3 weeks out than 1 week prior (2016 - sheesh).

Yes, but... The weather station that info is taken on is about 20 miles west of Pilton, and seemed to get battered by the storm... So those numbers are probably inflates. 

[Titters]

3 minutes ago, scaryclaireyfairy said:

Holy crap will you look at 2012! That would have been apocalyptic!

3 times more rain than 2016 build up... We would have been arriving by boat. 

(Would it have happened??)

[yehbutnobut]

2 minutes ago, calamitymaud said:

So this is the most rainfall we've had 3 weeks out... since pre 2007? Not the best start to the run up...!

Still, better to have it 3 weeks out than 1 week prior (2016 - sheesh).

I think the monsoon that moved passed and to the west then up through into Wales must have really added to that reading, have read some horror stories on the amount rain that fell yesterday. Think we dodged a massive bullet there!

However, taking solice from the 3 week reading before 2017 though, and look how that turned out! 

[T-Mouse]

44 minutes ago, bigfurbdogg said:

The models looking better this morning on the netweather forum, possible way out of this unsettled period ??

The models show another week of dross but mid June could be the turning point according to the Gfs / Ecm00z ops with a more summery second half of the month or at least containing some high pressure and warmth, particularly for southern uk..fingers crossed all of the uk enjoys some sustained fine and warm weather before June is over!

I like this person. Whoever they are. 

[CaledonianGonzo]

18 minutes ago, scaryclaireyfairy said:

Holy crap will you look at 2012! That would have been apocalyptic!

Isle of Wight moved to Glastonbury weekend that year

 

lol  owned

[gherkin8r]

Seeing nothing but positives here. 

[frostypaw]

35 minutes ago, Titters said:

Hi guys. 

As suggested by @JoeyT - I've updated the Rainfall records summary table I put together in 2017...

This is fab, good work.

[gigpusher]

33 minutes ago, Titters said:

Hi guys. 

As suggested by @JoeyT - I've updated the Rainfall records summary table I put together in 2017...

The historical data is taken from here: 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/download.html

And the 2019 June figures are taken from here: 

https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/?site_id=3017226

Neither are Pilton specific, but they give a general view of how wet the weather was in the build up to the festival. The rain yesterday seemed to hit the weather station (which is just west of the M5) more heavily that on the ground reporters @deebeedoobee, @pilton digger and Big Dog would suggest. If anyone knows a closer weather station that records rainfall, please let me know. 

Some thoughts... 

2007 shows that grim mud will still arrive if heavy rain continues to fall over festival weekend, even if the build up is dry. 

2009, 2010 and 2017 show that a dry spring will let the ground easily cope with a wet first week of June. Like we've had so far in 2019. 

2011 and 2016 show that a pretty soggy fortnight prior to gates opening will result in tough conditions. 

So.... As has been suggested many times, the table backs up the view that if the wet stuff can keep calm over the next couple of weeks, the pretty rubbish start to June will be forgotten. 

Also, if we'd had a festival in 2018, it would have been like tarmac. Conversely, 2012 would have been snorkels and canoes all round. (Seriously, compare the numbers to 2016 and 2007...). 

 

Sterling work although I assume these are for Somerset rather than specifically Pilton as the locals on here don't seem to be reporting as much rain as this suggests. It's very interesting though and shows how much a bad start to a festival can play with the memory as in my head 2016 was awful and every morning woke up to rain yet it wasn't actually as bad as 2014 which I don't remember being as bad. I know it was muddy but nowhere near as awful. I do think the journey in for 2016 made for a bad start though and Brexshit put a massive downer on everything. 

[Titters]

I think 2014 the rain was very much concentrated in the storm... A LOT of rain fell in a short amount of time. 

 

And the June 2019 figure is definitely not accurate for Pilton, but I can't find anything closer. 

 

Might have another look for something East of the site tomorrow while nursing a hangover. 

[chazwwe]

Well hopefully a lot of the rain has happened and the next 2 weeks are nice and dry and temps rise. 

Seriously those 2012 numbers. The more worrying thing is the rain leading up to the festival as it just doesn't stop, similar to 2016, so the ground would of been 2016 levels and then 2007 levels of rain DURING the festival? That'd be horrible. 

[gigpusher]

6 minutes ago, Titters said:

I think 2014 the rain was very much concentrated in the storm... A LOT of rain fell in a short amount of time. 

 

And the June 2019 figure is definitely not accurate for Pilton, but I can't find anything closer. 

 

Might have another look for something East of the site tomorrow while nursing a hangover. 

Yes and I was in a tent for most of that watching that wonderful Crystal Fighters set which I'm sure became more euphoric because we all knew we weren't out in that rain! 

Really good job on the stats. It gives a good idea. Let's hope the worst of the weather continues to skip by Pilton. 

[nikkic]

So in summary, the rain we’ve had this week won’t be a problem, as long as the next few weeks are dry and it doesn’t shit down during the festival?

[tumbles]

1 minute ago, nikkic said:

So in summary, the rain we’ve had this week won’t be a problem, as long as the next few weeks are dry and it doesn’t shit down during the festival?

We’ve had such a dry spring the rain is doing sweet FA. Again today it’s sunny and very breezy - cancelling out yesterday. Tomorrow looks sunny again. At moment it’s just going along nicely and maybe just keeping the ground a little softer than concrete 

[Wurzelcat]

30 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Isle of Wight moved to Glastonbury weekend that year

 

lol  owned

Isle of Wight was minging. I was there. Bought tickets as Christmas present for my husband, he was a Feeder fan. Feeder got bumped off the bill as the arena opened several hours late, with massive queues forming they still insisted on ridiculous booze hunting bag checks (so glad there's none of that nonsense at Glastonbury!)

 

Ferries were stuck in the Solent with nowhere to go, cars couldn't get off or on, thankfully we had arrived on the island a few days before but still took several hours to drive 10 miles.

 

Bad times

[chazwwe]

9 minutes ago, tumbles said:

We’ve had such a dry spring the rain is doing sweet FA. Again today it’s sunny and very breezy - cancelling out yesterday. Tomorrow looks sunny again. At moment it’s just going along nicely and maybe just keeping the ground a little softer than concrete 

So much nicer to walk on, pitch a tent on and sleep on just in case you end up falling in your tent and missing where you're meant to be sleeping, hello me in 2017.

[tumbles]

1 minute ago, nikkic said:

So in summary, the rain we’ve had this week won’t be a problem, as long as the next few weeks are dry and it doesn’t shit down during the festival?

We’ve had such a dry spring the rain is doing sweet FA. Again today it’s sunny and very breezy - cancelling out yesterday. Tomorrow looks sunny again. At moment it’s just going along nicely and maybe just keeping the ground a little softer than concrete 

[gherkin8r]

Let's hope the site traffic doesn't do too much damage when it is wet. As much as the festival is always brilliant a couple of days running round in trainers does wonders for your energy levels come Saturday or Sunday vs trugmdging through mud for 4 or 5 days. Being able to just lie on the grass in the sun would be nice as well. 

[fuzzy_logic]

Great work @Titters ?

[TiZuff]

1 hour ago, Titters said:

Hi guys. 

As suggested by @JoeyT - I've updated the Rainfall records summary table I put together in 2017...

The historical data is taken from here: 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/download.html

And the 2019 June figures are taken from here: 

https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/?site_id=3017226

Neither are Pilton specific, but they give a general view of how wet the weather was in the build up to the festival. The rain yesterday seemed to hit the weather station (which is just west of the M5) more heavily that on the ground reporters @deebeedoobee, @pilton digger and Big Dog would suggest. If anyone knows a closer weather station that records rainfall, please let me know. 

Some thoughts... 

2007 shows that grim mud will still arrive if heavy rain continues to fall over festival weekend, even if the build up is dry. 

2009, 2010 and 2017 show that a dry spring will let the ground easily cope with a wet first week of June. Like we've had so far in 2019. 

2011 and 2016 show that a pretty soggy fortnight prior to gates opening will result in tough conditions. 

So.... As has been suggested many times, the table backs up the view that if the wet stuff can keep calm over the next couple of weeks, the pretty rubbish start to June will be forgotten. 

Also, if we'd had a festival in 2018, it would have been like tarmac. Conversely, 2012 would have been snorkels and canoes all round. (Seriously, compare the numbers to 2016 and 2007...). 

 

Brilliant stuff . I feel better already. !!

[DesperateDad]

29 minutes ago, Titters said:

I think 2014 the rain was very much concentrated in the storm... A LOT of rain fell in a short amount of time. 

 

And the June 2019 figure is definitely not accurate for Pilton, but I can't find anything closer. 

 

Might have another look for something East of the site tomorrow while nursing a hangover. 

Does this help? Rainfall from the station just East of Shepton Mallet

https://environment.data.gov.uk/flood-monitoring/assets/demo/index.html