The Weather Thread 2019

[cossie]

3 hours ago, The Nal said:

Look at the amount of rain in the next 10 days. Brings us right up to Sunday week and no signs of slowing.

The site won't recover from this. 

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

Now I am no meteorologist but 11 MM of rain in a week doesn't sound like a lot to me, in old money that's less than half an inch

[bigfurbdogg]

12 minutes ago, Havors said:

So good that they change daily.... 

Even based on good science they are a guess. The longer ahead they predict the more unreliable they are. 

Unless its apple weather and then its always wrong no matter what.  

To be fair, they've all been predicting this rain today for a while now.

[HotChipWillBreakYourLegs]

13 minutes ago, Havors said:

So good that they change daily.... 

Even based on good science they are a guess. The longer ahead they predict the more unreliable they are. 

Unless its apple weather and then its always wrong no matter what.  

I think you may need to check your definition of the word 'guess'. 

[Penrhos]

So long as the days showing as "Rain" turn out to be showers and not the deluges 2016 got it should be fine.

However I've only been to one dry Glasto (2017) in all the times I've been so my muddy ticket curse seems like being fulfilled again....

[tumbles]

14 minutes ago, paulshane said:

I'm 18.1 miles north east as the crow flies of the site, in Clevedon. So not terribly close, but local-ish

Oh hai fellow North Somerset folk 

[frostypaw]

22 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Yes it was. Much worse. 

Yup - 2016 was constant rain-dry daily alternating up to the festival - there were video reports coming from Bramble FM trying to make things sound better and I'll admit to plenty of praying that the brief patches of sun would dry things out but it was relentless.

This is much more varied. This morning's run's the worst I've seen for a while, hence the Nal's return, but still that 'worst' is over the next few days with plenty of OK weather after it.

Plenty of room for change still, nothing seems guaranteed - which is a big improvement on the years when we've had the jetstream heading right for us and we're staring a queue of storms down already. Patterns don't seem as stuck in that groove.

Also this year's weather bad?!? I was out camping in Feburary in great comfort - BBQs earlier than ever - it's been weird but it's been good. Just need that promised few months of warmer now

[Havors]

4 minutes ago, HotChipWillBreakYourLegs said:

I think you may need to check your definition of the word 'guess'. 

Semantics. 

Jesus all the pedantic meteorologists are online today! My point stands.... the longer ahead the prediction the less accurate.

Talk about strawmanning

 

 

[Dr Glasto]

40 minutes ago, Skoo said:

I tend to feel the same. If it was lovely and hot now I'd be thinking it'll never last.

 

 

This. Because I somehow manage to convince myself that every month has a defined sun and rain quota where Glastonbury's concerned.

Although my current line of conversation is mostly restricted to:

Sunny: "It'll be amazing if the weather's like this at Glastonbury"

Raining: "I hope the weather's not like this at Glastonbury"

I'm very fun to be around right now.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

Semantics. 

Jesus all the pedantic meteorologists are online today! My point stands.... the longer ahead the prediction the less accurate.

Talk about strawmanning

 

 

Why's that strawmanning?

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Why's that strawmanning?

I don't mean his response sorry, I mean some of the other comments made... it was a general response. 

[bigfurbdogg]

This weather stuff stresses me out beyond belief, actually making me feel a bit sick worrying about it all today. 

[Winslow Leach]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Why's that strawmanning?

He's referring to the effigy we must burn to bring back our apples taps aff weather conditions.

[Gedh]

12 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

Yup - 2016 was constant rain-dry daily alternating up to the festival - there were video reports coming from Bramble FM 

I'd have loved to have seen videos from Bramble FM as they would have been hilarious but I think you mean Worthy FM.

BTW Bramble FM are making their last ever Glastonbury appearance this year so if you want to piss yourself laughing then Saturday and Sunday afternoons opposite the Summer House is the place to be

http://www.alternativecaravanclub.co.uk/bramble-fm.html

 

[mcshed]

31 minutes ago, cossie said:

Now I am no meteorologist but 11 MM of rain in a week doesn't sound like a lot to me, in old money that's less than half an inch

Yeah there's 18 mm forecast for Edinburgh tomorrow which will be wet but not biblically so.

[Havors]

14 minutes ago, Winslow Leach said:

He's referring to the effigy we must burn to bring back our apples taps aff weather conditions.

hahaha yes every little helps  

[paulshane]

so the last hour of rain has produced what appears to be about 1mm.

[JoeyT]

From the netweather forum:

Quote

Looking more and more likely this June will go down in history as memorable - but for all the wrong reasons.

June 2012 was the record wettest with 145mm, if some of those precipitation charts verify for the next 10 days, then that record could be seriously under threat come the end of the month. Failing that, it should easily make it into the top 10 hall of shame. 

In case you want to look yourself - https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91894-model-output-discussion-the-start-of-summer/page/15/?tab=comments#comment-4041823

Edited June 7, 2019 by JoeyT

[deebeedoobee]

Sun is out in Pilton now!

[dingbat2]

23 minutes ago, paulshane said:

 

I can see the Met Office austerity cuts are starting to kick in...

[bigfurbdogg]

6 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

From the netweather forum:

In case you want to look yourself - https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91894-model-output-discussion-the-start-of-summer/page/15/?tab=comments#comment-4041823

Jesus Christ, i wish i didn't just read through all that.

 

 

[JoeyT]

Just now, bigfurbdogg said:

Jesus Christ, i wish i didn't just read through all that.

It's full of weather jargon that melts the brain but you can see why i've been negative...!

[Gedh]

But even the doom laden stuff is varying from evening forecast to the next mornings

"todays Euro trapped a cyclonic low over/south of the UK whereas last night maintained the low to the north east. "

 

[BambooShanks]

Just now, bigfurbdogg said:

Jesus Christ, i wish i didn't just read through all that.

 

 

I don't think those amateurs have any idea what they are talking about.  We have deebeedoobee's well and that's all we need.

 

 

[Crazyfool01]

after a heavy downpour the sun is emerging in Taunton too  

[briddj]

3 minutes ago, bigfurbdogg said:

Jesus Christ, i wish i didn't just read through all that.

 

 

Just pick one comment that suits our desires and ignore the rest.

"Anyway, just looked at the Ecm 00z operational and it's nowhere near as bad as last evening's 12z, there's more fine than wet and more warm than cool! "