The Weather Thread 2019

[DareToDibble]

2 minutes ago, Splodge said:

Can we not just use the Arcadia crane to build a big dome over the entire site?

I like it.

 

[Lees23]

Ventusky is great, event if it's just to enjoy the trippy swirling. 

 

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=50.98;-2.31;7&l=rain-3h&w=0bABxQmOB

 

 

[stuartbert two hats]

3 hours ago, Kinkyinuit said:

God no. Though apart from the thunder storm on saturday, the majority of the showers are quite small so wouldn't impact on the ground that much but I'd rather not have it

The metcheck forecast (which I failed to attach properly the first time) paints a better picture.  It isn't perfect but it's better than what we've had some years.  

 

Bingo!  Apologies for not being as clear!

 

If that did happen, it would be nearly perfect IMHO.  4mm over the whole festival goes nowhere.

[Jung]

1 hour ago, Wurzelcat said:

I need a new weather app. Yesterdays forecast was totally wrong and today it's apparently "light rain" in Bristol, absolutely hoofing it down for the last hour.

Currently using the BBC weather app, what should I be using? 

Brings home the point that if the forecast isn't even right for the same day, how reliable can a long range one be?

Weather Underground is really accurate but the app never loads, f'ing annoying!

Edited June 4, 2019 by Jung

[LSTx]

The pessimism in this thread has dampened (pardon the pun) my mood this tuesday ?

I need to get a grip as its 3 weeks away still, as long as its not 2016 I'll survive

#prayforsun

 

 

[bennyhana22]

19 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If that did happen, it would be nearly perfect IMHO.  4mm over the whole festival goes nowhere.

In time-honoured tradition, STICK!!!

?

Ben

Edited June 4, 2019 by bennyhana22

[Stocksey]

17 minutes ago, LSTx said:

The pessimism in this thread has dampened (pardon the pun) my mood this tuesday ?

I need to get a grip as its 3 weeks away still, as long as its not 2016 I'll survive

#prayforsun

 

 

I dont think it helps that the webcam has looked pretty gloomy all day. it just adds to that sinking feeling. Look later on when the clouds have shifted and we get a great sunset will will all be firmly in the "its going to be glorious" camp

[BambooShanks]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

If that did happen, it would be nearly perfect IMHO.  4mm over the whole festival goes nowhere.

 

It's not too bad at all, however what wasn't shown was the 3 weeks prior which had quite a few big downpours.

As long as there's a reasonable break from the rain, it should be ok...

 

 

...I hope

 

[gherkin8r]

When I say MUDBATH, you say HEATWAVE!! 

[phillyfaddle]

I saw a Somerset Live article today, which was preducting higher than average temperatures, with some risk of thundery showers. I'll take that!

EDIT:  OK, so it's Somerset Live, but....

Edited June 4, 2019 by phillyfaddle

[hfuhruhurr]

I'm getting all the bad weather out of the way by going to Download:

Friday, I'll be mostly swimming. (or flying a kite)

Edited June 4, 2019 by hfuhruhurr

[Dave_c]

1 minute ago, hfuhruhurr said:

I'm getting all the bad weather out of the way by going to Download:

Friday, I'll be mostly swimming. (or flying a kite)

You could kill two birds with one stone and go kite surfing.

[gherkin8r]

2 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

I'm getting all the bad weather out of the way by going to Download:

Friday, I'll be mostly swimming. (or flying a kite)

Friday lol

[Nobody Interesting]

So much pessemism in here.

Far too far ahead to know what it might do and for every bad long term outlook there is a good one and an average one.

It will probably end up being quite an average festival weather wise as most of this spring and summer so far has been pretty average but on the dry side of average.

Festiweather says sun all the way - but they are rarely right

Accuweather says mixed - but they just go down the middle

Met Office suggests some showers and maybe thunder storms - but that is quite normal for June

BBC weather is sat on the fence as normal.

We shall have weather, or putting it like The Nal does - we are fucked,.

[Chef]

[Mr.Tease]

I do always enjoy the increasingly desperate bargaining we all do as the weather thread advances?

[sam1981]

Right, so I've done the only scientifically reasonable thing and checked the weather threads for 2016 and 2017 roughly 3 weeks out to see what the consensus was. The idea was to show that there was no accuracy in the reports that far ahead, but it backfired and it seems that roughly speaking the general wet 2016/dry 2017 trend was known at this time. ?

 

 

Trying to think of something positive to say at the end of this, but science has spoken and is obviously never wrong.

[Mr.Tease]

Okay so we can determine the weather forecasting accuracy at this range, here are some posts from the 2017 weather thread 3 weeks before:

 

Quote

 

ccuweather has for the week before the festival 0.33 inches of rain(over 2 days) then utterly dry during the fest until a bit of rain (0.06in) on sunday........id go for that!

http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/pilton/ba4-4/daily-weather-forecast/710458?day=21

wensday-considerable cloudiness, no rain predidcted
thursday-rather cloudy no rain
friday-increasing cloudiness no rain
saturday-cloudy no rain
sunday partly sunny with a shower-tiny bit of rain

 

 

 

Quote

 

Monthly outlook on BBC and Met Office looks a bit dicey, but too far out to be accurate. Unbroken sunshine looks unlikley, as per usual. Just fingers crossed it's not a washout!

 

 

 

Quote

 

New update

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87677-glastonbury-2017-21-25-june/#comment-3585173

Looks like we could be in for a wet week or 2. Hopefully improving by the time the fest comes round!

 

 

 

 

And most importantly JackONE's report at this stage in 2017:

 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87677-glastonbury-2017-21-25-june/#comment-3585173

First Look 30th May 2017

Here is the first look for Glastonbury 2017; I have deliberately avoided the longer term approaches this year.

At this stage I will concentrate on the Operational GFS runs, the GEFS ensembles and the NOAA pressure which can be a good guide towards 6-10 day and 8-14 days ahead.

In reality we are too far ahead of the festival to get realistic forecasts, hence the later start this year.

Medium Term (8-14 days)

Firstly looking at GFS. The current theme is for the start of June to be rather unsettled and mobile from the west, Winds generally set to be from a Westerly to South Westerly direction, with ridge of High Pressure from time to time, but no long settled spells appear likely.

The NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook both show a trough over the UK, indicating unsettled weather.  

 

Ensembles

Again shows a rather unsettled theme, with some precipitation possible at times over the next 14 days or so. Perhaps a slight trend towards rising pressure towards the end of the forecast run.

Rather mixed with 2 runs showing High Pressure, 1 with a ridge of HP to the east and 1 with low pressure nearby.

 

Initial thoughts - So perhaps a getting better scenario as we build up to Glastonbury, but with over 3 weeks to go, there will be up and downs along the way.

This time next week we will be getting into the range of the 16 days forecast being the start of Glastonbury.

 

 

[mazola]

14 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

I'm getting all the bad weather out of the way by going to Download:

 

Friday, I'll be mostly swimming. (or flying a kite)

Fuck me that looks grim, good luck dude!

I have to admit I'm feeling pessimistic about Glastonbury today. All this look on the bright side attitude on here ain't convincing me.

Saying it's not looking like it will be as bad as 2016 is about as low a bar as you can set.

[nikkic]

Have faith people...

[ledwards]

15 minutes ago, sam1981 said:

Right, so I've done the only scientifically reasonable thing and checked the weather threads for 2016 and 2017 roughly 3 weeks out to see what the consensus was. The idea was to show that there was no accuracy in the reports that far ahead, but it backfired and it seems that roughly speaking the general wet 2016/dry 2017 trend was known at this time. ?

 

 

Trying to think of something positive to say at the end of this, but science has spoken and is obviously never wrong.

I think we'd need to look at 3 weeks prior for 2017 which would be this page where it was all still very uncertain!

#searchingforhope

 

 

Edited June 4, 2019 by ledwards

[Losing my hair]

1 hour ago, Splodge said:

Can we not just use the Arcadia crane to build a big dome over the entire site?

If they can do it to Springfield they can do it to Glastonbury!

EDIT: Just noticed - too late. Hangs head in shame of it.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Losing my hair

[woyski]

I'm here because I'm being too pessi about the weather, whilst my boyfriend is being way too optimistic. NEED A HAPPY MEDIUM LADS

[sam1981]

16 minutes ago, ledwards said:

I think we'd need to look at 3 weeks prior for 2017 which would be this page where it was all still very uncertain!

#searchingforhope

 

 

You're right - got my dates wrong. It's going to be sunny!!!

[deebeedoobee]

BBC said it would be showery in Pilton today. So I didn’t hang my washing out.

today was dry. Big Dog’s paws stayed dry, he even laid out for a while sunbathing. I cut the grass just now.

moral of this story - don’t believe the hype.