The Weather Thread 2019

[BambooShanks]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

enough of such talk ....

The likelihood of another '16 gets lower every day there isn't a big downpour.  Even the most (current) pessimistic forecasts  has less than 50mm of rain between now and Glastonbury so that kind of deep welly sucking mud shouldn't happen.

 

That said, the last metcheck forecast has 9mm of rain on the tuesday 25th which could make the ground a bit soggy for the first day but it would mean that tent pegs will go into the ground a bit easier!  

 

[tumbles]

1 hour ago, Kinkyinuit said:

The likelihood of another '16 gets lower every day there isn't a big downpour.  Even the most (current) pessimistic forecasts  has less than 50mm of rain between now and Glastonbury so that kind of deep welly sucking mud shouldn't happen.

 

That said, the last metcheck forecast has 9mm of rain on the tuesday 25th which could make the ground a bit soggy for the first day but it would mean that tent pegs will go into the ground a bit easier!  

 

Having gone camping weekend just past in Devon the ground was so ridiculously hard that maybe not a bad thing  

[tarw]

I remember the year that they gave out biodegradable tent pegs (2004 or5). The ground was so hard that they shattered when you tried to hit them in. Wire ones just bent like a bit of plasticine a mallet made no difference. The ground was like rock 

[Tranquility of Solitude]

Replaced all my tent pegs with high tensile steel ones for 2017... available on Amazon.... they will go into anything without bending.

[Crazyfool01]

19 minutes ago, Tranquility of Solitude said:

Replaced all my tent pegs with high tensile steel ones for 2017... available on Amazon.... they will go into anything without bending.

no no no .... please dont say this .... ive enough tent pegs for worthy view ... 

[Lycra]

27 minutes ago, tarw said:

I remember the year that they gave out biodegradable tent pegs (2004 or5). The ground was so hard that they shattered when you tried to hit them in. Wire ones just bent like a bit of plasticine a mallet made no difference. The ground was like rock 

Twas 2008...made from potato starch they were.....and absolutely useless in the hard ground. Recall arriving on the Wednesday and leaving on the Monday in hot sunny weather but inbetween it was rather cool without outbreaks of showers.

[Doug85]

I'm sure by this point in 2016 it was raining non stop and the few weeks before they had really heavy rain. The ground being so bad after weeks and weeks of rain made that mud bath. Fingers crossed that the weather is making the chances of another 16 lower and lower. When i visited the site in April the ground was already hard and cracked in places as it was so dry. Would take a hell of a lot of rain for it to make it a mud bath from here. The bad thing is if it does get a lot of rain then then the water will just rush along the ground rather than get sodden and muddy. They have installed a lot of drainage over the last few years and even during the fallow and that should put them in a good position for this year. 

[Havors]

We are still too far out to be saying one way or the other tbh.... 2/3 weeks out you will have a good idea of wether there is due to be any prolonged rain before the festival which caused the issues in 2016. 

A nice heatwave starting early June is what we want... last year at IOW festival the weather was even better than Glasto 2017... Thats what im hoping for. 

[Ayrshire Chris]

15 minutes ago, Doug85 said:

I'm sure by this point in 2016 it was raining non stop and the few weeks before they had really heavy rain. The ground being so bad after weeks and weeks of rain made that mud bath. Fingers crossed that the weather is making the chances of another 16 lower and lower. When i visited the site in April the ground was already hard and cracked in places as it was so dry. Would take a hell of a lot of rain for it to make it a mud bath from here. The bad thing is if it does get a lot of rain then then the water will just rush along the ground rather than get sodden and muddy. They have installed a lot of drainage over the last few years and even during the fallow and that should put them in a good position for this year. 

Lots of positivity, fingers crossed  and happy thoughts in this post. I visited the site last June during the fallow and it was incredible weather, ideal festival conditions. Hopefully we get the same this summer. 

[Aragorn]

models are upto around 6th June - so 2 weeks or so and we will be in range for the GFS 

[Doug85]

41 minutes ago, Havors said:

We are still too far out to be saying one way or the other tbh.... 2/3 weeks out you will have a good idea of wether there is due to be any prolonged rain before the festival which caused the issues in 2016. 

 

True however 2016 was due to rain all during the build up and the week leading up to the festival. They have had nowhere near as much as that this year, Fingers crossed it stays the same, current forecasts for the next couple of weeks don't show any issues so looking good so far. 

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, Doug85 said:

True however 2016 was due to rain all during the build up and the week leading up to the festival. They have had nowhere near as much as that this year, Fingers crossed it stays the same, current forecasts for the next couple of weeks don't show any issues so looking good so far. 

Thats what II said..... we are 5 weeks out... in 3 weeks time the forecast could be rain leading right up to the festival which would be a nightmare. You just cant call it yet. Fingers crossed it stays dry in the couple of weeks leading up to it. 

[Glasto8]

9 minutes ago, Havors said:

Thats what II said..... we are 5 weeks out... in 3 weeks time the forecast could be rain leading right up to the festival which would be a nightmare. You just cant call it yet. Fingers crossed it stays dry in the couple of weeks leading up to it. 

Even if that did happen it still wouldn’t be as bad as 2016, the ground is so hard at the moment that it can take a couple of weeks of rain and still be able to recover. 2016 was caused by months of wet weather, not weeks.

[Doug85]

2 minutes ago, Glasto8 said:

Even if that did happen it still wouldn’t be as bad as 2016, the ground is so hard at the moment that it can take a couple of weeks of rain and still be able to recover. 2016 was caused by months of wet weather, not weeks.

Thats kind of what I was getting at. It was the whole build up that year from feb/march onwards on top of a bad winter. 

[tumbles]

2 minutes ago, Doug85 said:

Thats kind of what I was getting at. It was the whole build up that year from feb/march onwards on top of a bad winter. 

Yep, I really can't stress how dry and hard the ground is at moment.  We would need to have  weeks of rain to get anywhere near what 2016 was.

[Havors]

14 minutes ago, Glasto8 said:

Even if that did happen it still wouldn’t be as bad as 2016, the ground is so hard at the moment that it can take a couple of weeks of rain and still be able to recover. 2016 was caused by months of wet weather, not weeks.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2016

There was a shit ton of Rain in June...leading up to the festival, thats why it was so bad. They have said that they have learnt a lot from that experience though so I would like to think they delays and carnage would not be so bad if there was similar weather in the future. 

[Doug85]

2 minutes ago, Havors said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2016

There was a shit ton of Rain in June...leading up to the festival, thats why it was so bad. They have said that they have learnt a lot from that experience though so I would like to think they delays and carnage would not be so bad if there was similar weather in the future. 

Yep but coupled up with how bad it was before that. The ground has been consistently dry the last couple of months which means it would take a lot of rain to make it as bad as that again. Lets hope it stays the same.

They have definitely learned from that year though as they have built a new drainage system in just off the old railway line where Shangri La and the common would be as they were all delayed in opening that year due to the amount of water/mud. 

[The Nal]

32 minutes ago, tumbles said:

Yep, I really can't stress how dry and hard the ground is at moment.  We would need to have  weeks of rain to get anywhere near what 2016 was.

When the ground is too try the rain just sits there and then you have 200,000 people and thousands of trucks, vans and cars all over it. 

Dry ground = bad

Wet ground = bad

[eFestivals]

3 hours ago, The Nal said:

When the ground is too try the rain just sits there and then you have 200,000 people and thousands of trucks, vans and cars all over it. 

Dry ground = bad

Wet ground = bad

Nal = doom

[BambooShanks]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

Nal = doom

We wouldn't have him any other way. 

Unchecked optimism is a dangerous thing in this thread

[Tranquility of Solitude]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Nal = doom

I never pay too much attention to this thread until The Nal has provided us all with his balanced view. I then take that to be the worst possible outcome, plan accordingly, and nothing then is a dissappointment.

[Doug85]

3 minutes ago, Tranquility of Solitude said:

I never pay too much attention to this thread until The Nal has provided us all with his balanced view. I then take that to be the worst possible outcome, plan accordingly, and nothing then is a dissappointment.

 

7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Nal = doom

Even in 2017 he was still saying it was going to be a mudbath 

I can imagine Nal being in the queue in the heatwave on the wednesday " I give it about 10 minutes before the mudbath"  

[Stocksey]

4 minutes ago, Doug85 said:

 

Even in 2017 he was still saying it was going to be a mudbath 

I can imagine Nal being in the queue in the heatwave on the wednesday " I give it about 10 minutes before the mudbath"  

Pretty much this guy....

[Wurzelcat]

Is Jackone still around?

[The Nal]

10 minutes ago, Wurzelcat said:

Is Jackone still around?

Afraid not. Hes in solitary confinement on a small island off the Shetlands. When the police kicked the door down they found him sitting on his mothers twitching corpse while using skull as a soup bowl.