Don't vote Tory

[windy_miller]

Guardian reporting that Tim Farron and Nicola Sturgeon are both due to make statements soon...

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, eFestivals said:

you can disagree with that reasoning, but that reasoning was based in solid political ideas.

Too many people want to call conspiracy.

I don't disagree with that, but there were always those of us that always believed a positive campaign based on hope and fairness had a chance of striking a mainstream chord.  I understood they had reasons, but I did knock them, I simply disagreed.

As to whether Brexit is the main aspect in his success, we'll have to agree to disagree.  I think getting 40% of the vote on a campaign that tried very hard to ignore Brexit proves the very opposite.  I respect that there is equally evidence - particularly in the vote breakdown - that Brexit was important, but I don't agree it was most important factor in Labours better than expected performance.

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

Thanks for the insult. You very clearly don't like Corbyn, at all, and it seems logical that might be a reason you won't credit him for a massively increased youth vote. To me he seems very clearly to have connected with 18-24 year olds in a way I've not seen other leaders manage.

He's connected with them, something I've credited.

It's also a fact that remain/leave played a big big part, and something that was mostly unexpected. Something i've also credited, but which you don't seem to like being said.

[5co77ie]

3 minutes ago, windy_miller said:

What, those polls that turned out to be wrong?  As you have even admitted yourself?

Those polls that there was a lot of Twitter action last night of taking to court for being wrong by the Tory party - that was an interesting insight.

Edited June 9, 2017 by 5co77ie

[lazyred]

1 minute ago, windy_miller said:

What, those polls that turned out to be wrong?  As you have even admitted yourself?

Most  polls showed similar results until they adjusted for turnout. The large tory leads assumed a lower turnout for young people. This was reasonable but it looks like they were wrong

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, windy_miller said:

What, those polls that turned out to be wrong?  As you have even admitted yourself?

The polls that were a few percent wrong, but actually closer than anyone believed.

Are you trying to suggest that they were much more wrong when they were showing Corbyn trailing hugely? Or was that actually ballpark-right at that time, just as the final polls were ball-park right for the actual vote?

[Bluebella]

 

1 minute ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

Thanks for the insult. You very clearly don't like Corbyn, at all, and it seems logical that might be a reason you won't credit him for a massively increased youth vote. To me he seems very clearly to have connected with 18-24 year olds in a way I've not seen other leaders manage.

"The ICM poll, commissioned by anti-racism group HOPE not hate and supported by the National Union of Teachers (NUT), found 63 per cent of 18-24-year-olds said they were “absolutely certain” to vote.

Nick Lowles, chief executive of HOPE not hate, said: “These figures reveal that young people are far more interested and engaged in politics than many people think. "

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/two-thirds-young-people-vote-icm-poll-general-election-hope-not-hate-national-union-of-teachers-a7771431.html

 

 

[briddj]

God that was good. Just got up!

[Brave Sir Robin]

8 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

He's connected with them, something I've credited.

It's also a fact that remain/leave played a big big part, and something that was mostly unexpected. Something i've also credited, but which you don't seem to like being said.

I didn't see you crediting it before, I'm glad you now do so.

I don't see the remain/leave thing myself. I don't see why that would drive young people to vote Labour, who've been largely ambivalent on the subject.

[Ommadawn]

Labour need to do much more than appear to the

17 minutes ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

 To me he seems very clearly to have connected with 18-24 year olds in a way I've not seen other leaders manage.

Labour need to do much more to appeal to older voters as well. The 20 year old 'me' would have voted for them but the 'Current' me didn't.

Edited June 9, 2017 by Ommadawn

[mjsell]

2 minutes ago, briddj said:

God that was good. Just got up!

Slacker!

I'm so fucking tired at work. Went to bed at 3, got up at 7, and I was out last night at a comedy gig so had had a few bevvies as well (which never helps me sleep).

Theres also no milk in the office today so cant even have a coffee.

#firstworldproblems

Incidently The comedy gig I went to was in Hackney last night, where there was an absolute barrage of Labour leafleters around the place. For a seat/seats that have huge labour majorities (Diane Abbot being 1 of them). Why do these people not go somewhere more worthwile?

[p.pete]

18 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

But I also think there's still too much attachment to Corbyn personally, particularly when put against the fact of his age. Labour need to be more than a personality cult.

 

Yep, particularly as they won't get what they voted for any more than they did with Clegg.

Definitely not strong and stable if it's based around one person, which it kind of is at the moment.  One or two more national conferences and hopefully he's in a position to hand over, and that there's someone else from that side of the party suitable to step forward.  Seems to be f*all at the moment, not many without baggage from within the small bunch of merry men at the moment.

Re the Clegg comment, at least they won't be turning away for at least another election.  Get power first, then start worrying about failed policies.

[briddj]

Just now, mjsell said:

Slacker!

I'm so fucking tired at work. Went to bed at 3, got up at 7, and I was out last night at a comedy gig so had had a few bevvies as well (which never helps me sleep).

Day off today. Absolutely lucked out. Plenty of people in your boots!

[p.pete]

1 minute ago, briddj said:

Day off today. Absolutely lucked out. Plenty of people in your boots!

You know what they say about walking a mile in someone else's boots...

[5co77ie]

Irony - Theresa May does deal with terrorists (all be it ones on our side)

[5co77ie]

Just now, p.pete said:

You know what they say about walking a mile in someone else's boots...

get the foot fungal spray ready?

 

[eFestivals]

22 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I don't disagree with that, but there were always those of us that always believed a positive campaign based on hope and fairness had a chance of striking a mainstream chord.  I understood they had reasons, but I did knock them, I simply disagreed.

It wasn't about 'hope & fairness' that the objections to Corbyn centred around, tho. It was the fact that a person with non-mainstream views was unlikely to appeal to the mainstream (and you mention mainstream yourself).

I'm sure there's lots of reasons for why that turned out to be less of a factor than most people thought, but I'll take a guess (because it's something seen in this thread) that an amount of it was because his IRA connections don't mean very much to younger people as they don't really get what that was about because they didn't live thru it.

 

Quote

As to whether Brexit is the main aspect in his success, we'll have to agree to disagree.  I think getting 40% of the vote on a campaign that tried very hard to ignore Brexit proves the very opposite.  I respect that there is equally evidence - particularly in the vote breakdown - that Brexit was important, but I don't agree it was most important factor in Labours better than expected performance.

Brexit undoubtedly had a big influence on how people voted, as can be seen by the swings to the tories in leave areas and swings to Labour in remain areas - and that was despite Corbyn trying to marginalise discussion of brexit (which he did very well).

It might be that it was his marginalisation of brexit which caused the better than expected results. It might be that brexit changed everything about how people vote. The evidence seems to suggest some of both, which has brexit playing its part.

Where I credit brexit the most towards Corbyn tho, is with his decision to back brexit (despite me personally objecting to that). It was undoubtedly the right call for him to make to best tap into available votes.

I've little doubt that if Labour had continued to back remain - under any leader - they'd have done worse than they did.

Edited June 9, 2017 by eFestivals

[GMF]

What I think people are missing is the fact the sole reason this election was called was to give Theresa May who had not won an election as Prime Minister a personal mandate, they then ran a campaign built around her as a leader. She has failed to get a personal mandate and as this was the reason for the election she cannot stay as Prime Minister.

I have no issue with the conservative party as the largest party trying to form a government, and that may mean that May stays in the interim, but she must set out a timetable for standing down. however she has no history of political integrity, shown by the various crisis when she was home secretary, her sitting dumb throughout the European referendum, and now as she tries to hang on to power.

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

It wasn't much about 'hope & fairness' that the objections to Corbyn centred around, tho. It was the fact that a person with non-mainstream views was unlikely to appeal to the mainstream (and you mention mainstream yourself).

I'm sure there's lots of reasons for why that turned out to be less of a factor than most people thought, but I'll take a guess (because it's something seen in this thread) that an amount of it was because his IRA connections don't mean very much to younger people as they don't really get what that was about because they didn't live thru it.

 

Brexit undoubtedly had a big influence on how people voted, as can be seen by the swings to the tories in leave areas and swings to Labour in remain areas - and that was despite Corbyn trying to marginalise discussion of brexit (which he did very well).

It might be that it was his marginalisation of brexit which caused the better than expected results. It might be that brexit changed everything about how people vote. The evidence seems to suggest some of both, which has brexit playing its part.

Where I credit brexit the most towards Corbyn tho, is with his decision to back brexit (despite me personally objecting to that). It was undoubtedly the right call for him to make to best tap into available votes.

I've little doubt that if Labour had continued to back remain - under any leader - they'd have done worse than they did.

Yeah, that's my view pretty much exactly.  I don't want Brexit, but I recognise that opposing the result of a referendum just isn't a sensible approach for a party to take if they're aiming for a majority, rather than a niche like the Lib Dems.

[kingbadger]

23 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I don't like Labour to lose

I don't think they have, I think this is the best possible result for them as it stands. They have far, far exceeded expectations, closed the gap between them and the Tories massively, engaged the young voters they needed to and laid groundwork in a lot of constituencies for potential gains in the future. They also don't need to deal with the mess of Brexit either, and can just sit back and enjoy the Tories fuck it up. I imagine there will be serious regrouping around Corbyn now he has proven he can win votes, with more senior members coming to the forefront once again. As long as Corbyn can reunite the party and keep the same togetherness we have seen the last few weeks then they're in prime position going forward.

[mjsell]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Yeah, that's my view pretty much exactly.  I don't want Brexit, but I recognise that opposing the result of a referendum just isn't a sensible approach for a party to take if they're aiming for a majority, rather than a niche like the Lib Dems.

Yep. I was obviously very against brexit, but if Labour had continued to support remaining I would have had far more reservations about voting for them.

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, GMF said:

What I think people are missing is the fact the sole reason this election was called was to give Theresa May who had not won an election as Prime Minister a personal mandate, they then ran a campaign built around her as a leader. She has failed to get a personal mandate and as this was the reason for the election she cannot stay as Prime Minister.

I have no issue with the conservative party as the largest party trying to form a government, and that may mean that May stays in the interim, but she must set out a timetable for standing down. however she has no history of political integrity, shown by the various crisis when she was home secretary, her sitting dumb throughout the European referendum, and now as she tries to hang on to power.

That's your view.

I suspect the view from within the tory party is very different tho, and for them to ditch May right now would look like a pisstake of the electorate to the electorate, of them maneuvering for a better position that their vote doesn't deserve.

They'll be playing the game for their best advantage, as any party would.

[Newtoit]

3 minutes ago, GMF said:

What I think people are missing is the fact the sole reason this election was called was to give Theresa May who had not won an election as Prime Minister a personal mandate, they then ran a campaign built around her as a leader. She has failed to get a personal mandate and as this was the reason for the election she cannot stay as Prime Minister.

This.

Although it seems a given that she will stay for the shorter term.

This is now what worries me for the not too distant future - a hung parliament with Boris as PM negotiating with Europe

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, mjsell said:

Yep. I was obviously very against brexit, but if Labour had continued to support remaining I would have had far more reservations about voting for them.

I was against Brexit, but I argued after the vote that parties needed to accept the vote, because refusing to accept a public vote is not a good look for politicians in a democracy.

However, my own view was that with another vote - the GE - all options were open again, and I wanted Labour to come out with a "for the good of the country we're staying in" platform, and I didn't think doing that would have cost them much with votes as I felt opinions were starting to turn (and still think they are) .... but I know (particularly now, with how the vote went) that would have been a bad call, and Labour wouldn't have got the votes they did.

So out of everything, I'd say that was the best decision Corbyn made.

[FuzzyDunlop]

For the Tories to take Stoke South and Labour take Canterbury and Ipswich - Brexit was a big part of certain voters thinking.

An analyst was on the BBC earlier explaining why referendums throw British politics into disarray. Our political system is not set up for them and especially on Europe as it splits parties apart.