Don't vote Tory

[zahidf]

w

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

I've seen this comment claiming it's imminent so many times in the last two years that I can't believe it until it happens.

Like it or not, the tories are much more disciplined as a party than Labour.

yes. Saying that, Corbyn has silenced his labour party critics now, and i doubt there will be any leadership elections soon.

[Bluebella]

3 minutes ago, Gooner4900 said:

Im 19 and have been voting since I could - the main reason i voted Labour was because i could see Corbyn on a seperate level, a more human level than the rest of the politicians. he cares about the youth vote whereas Con's dont give a toss. 

After a fair bit of research I concluded that Corbyn is a wolf in sheeps clothing, and was doing a great job of pulling the wool over peoples eyes.

I hope you are right.

[windy_miller]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

I've seen this comment claiming it's imminent so many times in the last two years that I can't believe it until it happens.

Like it or not, the tories are much more disciplined as a party than Labour.

They have been in the past, but I think there are a lot of unhappy tories today, and it could be the start of some very heavy and nasty infighting.  I suspect that this has all been bubbling under the surface anyway and they have been very good at hiding it from the public.

But yes, we shall have to wait and see.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, windy_miller said:

They have been in the past, but I think there are a lot of unhappy tories today, and it could be the start of some very heavy and nasty infighting.  I suspect that this has all been bubbling under the surface anyway and they have been very good at hiding it from the public.

But yes, we shall have to wait and see.

yep, there's lots of unhappy tories, but I reckon they're smart enough to realise that too much pursuit of individual goals could make them even more unhappy.

For example, one way out of today's problem might be another election with a better leader, but they'd need to feel certain that doing that would get them a better result - and it would take a fair amount of arrogance to be sure it would.

I reckon they'll feel that sitting quietly for a while is the way to go, to see how things pan out and settle down, when they'll have a better idea of what might be the 'safe' path to take.

[ivan]

6 minutes ago, windy_miller said:

I think we are going to see a complete reversal of party stability.

Labour have finally going to get their act together and and acted a single party, united behind Corbyn

The Tories are going to tear themselves apart, in the same way that Labour have been doing for the last few years.

Its only 4 months to the party conferences.  that might be a better indicator.

Corbyn has plenty of crtics within the party , did they all unite for the election and once the dust has settled will those griveances rear there head again. 

It could be " you had your chance and you lost so you won't be given another "

If they think Parliament may run for a full term they may think they can come up with a better candidate before then that could get them across the line.

The tories have even more problems , they are in for a rough ride !

[mjsell]

15 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

nothing that was showing up much in any polling.

You still trusting polls? 

[windy_miller]

I wonder if this will be the end of Lynton Crosby at least?

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, ivan said:

Its only 4 months to the party conferences.  that might be a better indicator.

Corbyn has plenty of crtics within the party , did they all unite for the election and once the dust has settled will those griveances rear there head again. 

It could be " you had your chance and you lost so you won't be given another "

If they think Parliament may run for a full term they may think they can come up with a better candidate before then that could get them across the line.

The tories have even more problems , they are in for a rough ride !

I think it's unfeasible for Corbyn to remain as leader for an election in 2022, just by the fact of his age. He'd be 73 when taking office, and 78 when leaving office.

The vote as it stands today has me thinking he should be allowed to continue - tho with the caveat of looking at why he didn't get labour over the line. 

It could still easily be that his baggage is what stopped him winning yesterday, and that he'll never get that last bit of support to give him victory.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, mjsell said:

You still trusting polls? 

In YouGov we trust!

[mjsell]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

In YouGov we trust!

The one Neil discounted the most

[ivan]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

I think it's unfeasible for Corbyn to remain as leader for an election in 2022, just by the fact of his age. He'd be 73 when taking office, and 78 when leaving office.

The vote as it stands today has me thinking he should be allowed to continue - tho with the caveat of looking at why he didn't get labour over the line. 

It could still easily be that his baggage is what stopped him winning yesterday, and that he'll never get that last bit of support to give him victory.

In hindsight Labour may wish as a whole they were far more supportive of him before his election , during and after.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, mjsell said:

The one Neil discounted the most

the one *everyone* discounted the most.

No one thought hung was going to happen, tho some clung to some hope that it might.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, ivan said:

In hindsight Labour may wish as a whole they were far more supportive of him before his election , during and after.

yep, tho you can't really knock their reasoning round why they thought he was the wrong choice.

In standard political terms he was the wrong choice, and he's already proven that he lied when he said he didn't do half-hearted (so them wanting to remove him for letting down the party a year ago is shown as justifiable).

Brexit changed everything, and so you've got to put a lot down to luck (unless you credit Corbyn with causing brexit, which only opens up other fair questions about him).

[selotape]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the one *everyone* discounted the most.

No one thought hung was going to happen, tho some clung to some hope that it might.

I think Nate Silver thought a hung parliament was as likely as a Tory majority. Because polling in the UK has a poor track record:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

[GMF]

The biggest irony is at the last two elections, the tories have portrayed an image to English voters of a minority labour government propped up and controlled by the SNP in Edinburgh. The reality of this result for English voters is a conservative minority government propped up and controlled by the DUP in Belfast.

This and the fact that they are only in this position because the election in Scotland was turned into pseudo Independence referendum and the Conservative & Unionist Party, as it was portrayed in Scotland, gained seats

[windy_miller]

2 minutes ago, GMF said:

The biggest irony is at the last two elections, the tories have portrayed an image to English voters of a minority labour government propped up and controlled by the SNP in Edinburgh. The reality of this result for English voters is a conservative minority government propped up and controlled by the DUP in Belfast.

This and the fact that they are only in this position because the election in Scotland was turned into pseudo Independence referendum and the Conservative & Unionist Party, as it was portrayed in Scotland, gained seats

Yep, Labour looking very Strong and Stable today.

Conservatives about to enter a Coalition of Chaos.

[p.pete]

15 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

The vote as it stands today has me thinking he should be allowed to continue - tho with the caveat of looking at why he didn't get labour over the line. 

It could still easily be that his baggage is what stopped him winning yesterday, and that he'll never get that last bit of support to give him victory.

That baggage will always be there - and it's probably better to talk about it than to ignore it.  Are there better ways of presenting or responding to it?  Possibly, but it'll always be front page fodder at the vital moments.  I sense the tabloids laid off over the last year, as continually talking about it was taking some of the venom out of it.

Any other reasons why he might not have won?  There's bound to be a list, gaffs by him and others, the appearance of (actual?) party unity etc.  There's not going to be a reasonable way of attributing which reasons had what impact (though I'm sure some poll-like research will be done) - but still better to address as many things as possible.

Huge youth turnout was great - but that'll be fragile and easily lost, so the party needs to strengthen.

[mjsell]

16 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the one *everyone* discounted the most.

No one thought hung was going to happen, tho some clung to some hope that it might.

True, but I'm not the one still advocating looking at polling to back up an opinion I hold. 

[stuartbert two hats]

13 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

yep, tho you can't really knock their reasoning round why they thought he was the wrong choice.

In standard political terms he was the wrong choice, and he's already proven that he lied when he said he didn't do half-hearted (so them wanting to remove him for letting down the party a year ago is shown as justifiable).

Brexit changed everything, and so you've got to put a lot down to luck (unless you credit Corbyn with causing brexit, which only opens up other fair questions about him).

You can, and I did both times I voted for him.

[zahidf]

 

 

 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, p.pete said:

That baggage will always be there - and it's probably better to talk about it than to ignore it.  Are there better ways of presenting or responding to it?  Possibly, but it'll always be front page fodder at the vital moments.  I sense the tabloids laid off over the last year, as continually talking about it was taking some of the venom out of it.

Any other reasons why he might not have won?  There's bound to be a list, gaffs by him and others, the appearance of (actual?) party unity etc.  There's not going to be a reasonable way of attributing which reasons had what impact (though I'm sure some poll-like research will be done) - but still better to address as many things as possible.

Yep. I'm simply saying that Labour need to look at what might make them win. Today is much better than expected, but it's still not enough.

But I also think there's still too much attachment to Corbyn personally, particularly when put against the fact of his age. Labour need to be more than a personality cult.

 

1 minute ago, p.pete said:

Huge youth turnout was great - but that'll be fragile and easily lost, so the party needs to strengthen.

Yep, particularly as they won't get what they voted for any more than they did with Clegg.

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

You can, and I did both times I voted for him.

you can disagree with that reasoning, but that reasoning was based in solid political ideas.

Too many people want to call conspiracy.

 

7 minutes ago, mjsell said:

True, but I'm not the one still advocating looking at polling to back up an opinion I hold. 

Oh, FFS.

The polling is what is forming my opinion. I don't do "let's make my opinion fit the facts". 

Remember all those times I said saying Corbyn was doing shit? It's because he was, not because I invented it.

Edited June 9, 2017 by eFestivals

[Brave Sir Robin]

53 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

It's fuck all to do with "don't like".
(am really really bored of tiny minds )

Thanks for the insult. You very clearly don't like Corbyn, at all, and it seems logical that might be a reason you won't credit him for a massively increased youth vote. To me he seems very clearly to have connected with 18-24 year olds in a way I've not seen other leaders manage.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

Thanks for the insult. You very clearly don't like Corbyn, at all, and it seems logical that might be a reason you won't credit him for a massively increased youth vote. To me he seems very clearly to have connected with 18-24 year olds in a way I've not seen other leaders manage.

I don't like Labour to lose. Until 6 weeks ago, it looked a certainty of a slaughtering.

Go on, tell me that's hate fuelled.

Edited June 9, 2017 by eFestivals

[windy_miller]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

you can disagree with that reasoning, but that reasoning was based in solid political ideas.

Too many people want to call conspiracy.

 

Oh, FFS.

The polling is what is forming my opinion. I don't do do "let's make my opinion fit the facts". 

Remember all those times I said saying Corbyn was doing shit? It's because he was, not because I invented it.

What, those polls that turned out to be wrong?  As you have even admitted yourself?