Don't vote Tory

[babyblade41]

Just now, Ommadawn said:

Not 100% sure but from what I've read, while council tax works by taxing the overall value of a property, Land Value Tax would impose an annual charge on the rental value of land, not counting any improvements such as houses built on it.

It would mean that a vacant plot in the middle of a row of houses would have the same value as the plots that had houses on them. Agricultural land would also be taxed in the same way.

Basically if you have a house and garden you're likely end up paying more. I think.

Thanks... that's rather worrying for me.. I have a paddock area of 3 acres and if I can get charitable status would like to buy the 5 acres the farmer has at the bottom of my paddock to extend my rescue and take on more farm animals , but obviously wouldn't want to commit to anything where I'd be completely drowned in an unexpected land tax where open days and fund raising just wouldn't cope with an unexpected tax on my head.  Things are very tight at the min as I am self funding preventing expansion .

 

Looks like I might have to wait to see the outcome on June 8th ....still rather worrying 

[Ommadawn]

Latest ICM / Guardian poll putting Tories 12 points ahead of Labour.

[babyblade41]

9 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

Latest ICM / Guardian poll putting Tories 12 points ahead of Labour.

I'm not a fan of the polls, just makes decisions hard with uncertainty hanging on... 

If labour were to win I would have to find out how this LVT would affect me as I have agricultural land...from speaking to farmers here some aren't clear how agricultural land would be valued and whether appeals would / could be allowed , also would small holdings still be categorised as agricultural even though I do have a variety of farm animas . though pigs are only 3 the rest are small farm animals...

 

Would like to move into cows, bulls and goats which are hard for big rescues to re-home due too their destructive nature 

[Ommadawn]

41 minutes ago, babyblade41 said:

I'm not a fan of the polls, just makes decisions hard with uncertainty hanging on... 

If labour were to win I would have to find out how this LVT would affect me as I have agricultural land...from speaking to farmers here some aren't clear how agricultural land would be valued and whether appeals would / could be allowed , also would small holdings still be categorised as agricultural even though I do have a variety of farm animas . though pigs are only 3 the rest are small farm animals...

 

Would like to move into cows, bulls and goats which are hard for big rescues to re-home due too their destructive nature 

To be fair, I think the manifesto only mentions a review of the current system not any actual commitment but it does look like LVT is their favoured solution. 

Edited May 30, 2017 by Ommadawn

[babyblade41]

Just now, Ommadawn said:

To be fair, I think the manifesto only mentions a review of the current system not any actual commitment.  

Thank you but will still have to wait... it's too much of a possibility when financial margins are tight, 

 

I for one will be glad when everything can get sorted now, fear of the unknown for all of us is not easy 

[Mr.Tease]

Nice interview with him on the one show- I know it's a fluff piece but he came across very well- hopefully it will undo some of this mornings damage

[babyblade41]

1 hour ago, Mr.Tease said:

Nice interview with him on the one show- I know it's a fluff piece but he came across very well- hopefully it will undo some of this mornings damage

I'm not sure anyone really takes these interviews too much in regards to which way they will vote... I don't really watch the TV but an avid radio listener and heard the radio 4 interview.

Emma Barnett grilled the housing minister two weeks ago and she was tough but at least asked a question and let the interviewee chance to respond ...thankfully he could answer and quote facts and figures.

 

To be fair both leaders are primed on what questions they will be asked , I think JC just put too much into last nights and not enough in todays ...the die hards won't change their opinion on either party through an hours broadcast surely ?

[blackred]

1 hour ago, babyblade41 said:

Thank you but will still have to wait... it's too much of a possibility when financial margins are tight, 

 

I for one will be glad when everything can get sorted now, fear of the unknown for all of us is not easy 

Fear of the unknown, voted for brexit hmmm.......

Re LVT, from the labour manifesto

'A Labour government will give local government extra funding next year. We will initiate a review into reforming council tax and business rates and consider new options such as a land value tax, to ensure local government has sustainable funding for the long term'

So no worry of it being implemented in the next 5 years, if ever. As an aside if you want to learn more about how it might work the wikipedia article is pretty reasonable - interestingly it's widely supported by most economists from the major schools as being one of the most effective, and progressive, forms of taxation available. Currently 98% of land in the UK is owned by just over 4% of the people - as the 'country is full' making best use of such a limited resource should be a top priority for both sides of the political spectrum, unfortunately those 4% include a lot of very influential people.....

Edited May 30, 2017 by blackred

[babyblade41]

2 minutes ago, blackred said:

Fear of the unknown, voted for brexit hmmm.......

Re LVT, from the labour manifesto

'A Labour government will give local government extra funding next year. We will initiate a review into reforming council tax and business rates and consider new options such as a land value tax, to ensure local government has sustainable funding for the long term'

So no worry of it being implemented in the next 5 years, if ever. As an aside if you want to learn more about how it might work the wikipedia article is pretty reasonable - interestingly it's widely supported by most economists from the major schools as being one of the most effective, and progressive, forms of taxation available. Currently 98% of land in the UK is owned by just 4% of the people - as the 'country is full' making best use of such a limited resource should be a top priority for both sides of the political spectrum, unfortunately those 4% include a lot of very influential people.....

I will have a look... wikipedia? I couldn't find it when I looked ...thanks anyway 

[blackred]

2 minutes ago, babyblade41 said:

I will have a look... wikipedia? I couldn't find it when I looked ...thanks anyway 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax

 

[babyblade41]

 I spoke to 2 farmers today and they were sure it included agricultural land not just builders holding land in banks 

[blackred]

9 minutes ago, babyblade41 said:

 I spoke to 2 farmers today and they were sure it included agricultural land not just builders holding land in banks 

It should include agricultural land, yes. Unimproved land value is likely to be a lot lower than you expect though, unless you are running an urban farm, and values would fall further as a result of a land holders selling off unutilised land at a much higher rate than they do currently.

It's important to note most proponents of LVT don't advocate it as additional tax, rather as a replacement for some or even all other forms of taxation - overall you may not be worse off, and if you are it would suggest that the current land use is inefficient.

 

[babyblade41]

2 minutes ago, blackred said:

It should include agricultural land, yes. Unimproved land value is likely to be a lot lower than you expect though, unless you are running an urban farm, and values would fall further as a result of a land holders selling off unutilised land at a much higher rate than they do currently.

It's important to note most proponents of LVT don't advocate it as additional tax, rather as a replacement for some or even all other forms of taxation - overall you may not be worse off, and if you are it would suggest that the current land use is inefficient.

 

Ok so no need to majorly worry on expansion for animal purposes ?  Thanks for the input anyway.... now to go and check on them all before bed ... appreciate clarification

[zahidf]

Ha ha ha ha ha

Hubris, thy name is May

I doubt this will pan out like this, but can i just say it would be hilarious if it did

 

 

[arcade fireman]

9 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Ha ha ha ha ha

Hubris, thy name is May

I doubt this will pan out like this, but can i just say it would be hilarious if it did

 

 

Crikey. Even a huge sceptic like me is starting to have a tiny part of me hoping. 

But it's the hope that kills you. What's really odd here is that this is a constituency based prediction and most reasoned guesses have figured that the Tories will do better in seats than a uniform swing suggests.

Worth pointing out the margins of error are pretty wide.

Article from The Times:

Quote

The Conservative Party could be in line to lose 20 seats and Labour gain nearly 30 in next week’s general election, according to new modelling by one of the country’s leading pollsters.

YouGov’s first constituency-by-constituency estimate of the election result predicts that the Tories would fall short of an overall majority by 16 seats, leading to a hung parliament.

The central projection of the model, which allows for a wide margin of error, would be a catastrophic outcome for Theresa May, who called the election when polls pointed to a landslide result. Her support appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto, including plans to make more elderly voters pay for home care.

YouGov’s model puts the Tories on course to win 310 seats, down from the 330 they held when the election was called. Labour would get 257 seats, up from 229, the Liberal Democrats ten, up from nine, the SNP 50, down from 54, the Greens one and Plaid Cymru three. This would leave the Tories 16 seats short of the 326 votes they need for an overall majority in the Commons.

The poll allows for big variations, however, and suggests that the Tories could get as many as 345 seats on a good night, 15 more than at present, and as few as 274 seats on a bad night.

YouGov acknowledged that the predictions were controversial and pointed to significant “churn” in voting intentions. But Stephan Shakespeare, its chief executive, said that the model had been publicly tested during the EU referendum campaign last year, when it always had Leave ahead.

The model is based on 50,000 interviews over the course of a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov. This allows the pollster to assess the intention of every type of voter, from where they live to how they voted in the EU referendum, their age and social background, to weight the results.

The estimates were met with scepticism by Tory and Labour figures. One prominent Conservative said that the party was expecting a majority of 50 or more, despite an “atrocious” campaign, and insisted that anger over the manifesto was fading.

A Labour figure in the Midlands said that while the Tory social care blunder had helped, Jeremy Corbyn’s unpopularity continued to deter natural Labour voters and the party would be losing rather than gaining seats in the region.

Other pollsters predicted a convincing victory for the Tories. Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, said: “If voters behave in the way they broadly did in 2015 then the Conservatives remain on track for a 100-plus majority. This seems, on present assumptions, the most likely outcome.”

An ICM poll released yesterday gave a 12-point lead to the Conservatives, on 45 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Lib Dems on 8 and Ukip on 5. If this swing were replicated uniformly across the country, it would mean a Tory majority of 76. The spread betting company IG Index suggested that the Tories would win 378 seats, Labour 148, Lib Dems 14 and SNP 46 — a Tory majority of 106. The latest Elections Etc combined forecast by Stephen Fisher, of Oxford University, suggests a Tory majority of 100.

YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.

YouGov’s final poll in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum put “no” to independence on 54 per cent and “yes” on 46 per cent. The final vote was 55 per cent “no” and 45 per cent “yes”. Today’s YouGov election model is based on voting intention data collected in the past week. It puts the Tories on 42 per cent, Labour on 38 per cent, Lib Dems on 9 per cent and Ukip on 4 per cent.

Mr Shakespeare said that the figures could change dramatically before June 8: “The data suggests that there is churn on all fronts, with the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats both likely to both lose and gain seats. Based on the model’s current estimates, some seats are likely to change hands along EU referendum dividing lines.”

 

[waterfalls212434]

media in full on panic mode already......going on about `secret` plans labour apparently have that they dont actually have and have never even mentioned.....such desperation is the last sign of a sure losing side. I wouldnt be suprised if the gap got even less by the time june 8th rolls around tbh. corbyn and labour are on the up. and the tories are sliding....much as certain people on this forum dont want that to be the case because that would prove every last belief theyve expressed for months about corbyn not being a good leader and not being able to inspire votes as utterly fucking wrong but hey!

a hope....a chance

make june the end of may

[eFestivals]

8 hours ago, zahidf said:

Ha ha ha ha ha

Hubris, thy name is May

I doubt this will pan out like this, but can i just say it would be hilarious if it did

 

 

Don't believe everything you read on twitter, and don't read just the headline. What you've quoted is Murdoch's newspaper selling version of things.

This poll is via an experimental methodology from YouGov, attempting to do constituency-by-constituency for the first time.

And the *actual* results of that poll are....

Quote

The research allowed for big variations in the outcome of the election, ranging from as high as 345 seats for the Conservatives, 15 more than their current number, to as low as 274, The Times said.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-yougov-idUKKBN18Q2JW

So from YouGov themselves, it's pissing in the wind and they don't have a fucking clue. They won't start to have any faith in this methodology until after the election when they can tie their polling data with real election data.

[eFestivals]

7 hours ago, waterfalls212434 said:

media in full on panic mode already......going on about `secret` plans labour apparently have that they dont actually have and have never even mentioned.....such desperation is the last sign of a sure losing side. I wouldnt be suprised if the gap got even less by the time june 8th rolls around tbh. corbyn and labour are on the up. and the tories are sliding....much as certain people on this forum dont want that to be the case because that would prove every last belief theyve expressed for months about corbyn not being a good leader and not being able to inspire votes as utterly fucking wrong but hey!

a hope....a chance

make june the end of may

whether he is or isn't isn't proven by winning an election.

It's proven by leading well, and successfully - which includes delivering on promises.

[arcade fireman]

Yeah I'm more inclined to believe the ICM polls still showing a double digit Tory lead. But I think it will hinge on whether this is finally the election we get a huge sea change in voting habits of younger people. We may even get slightly depressed turn out from the elderly thanks to them not having a good option.

But I think the most likely option looking at all the polls is a significantly larger Tory majority, but Labour getting enough seats/vote % to convince Corbyn and his supporters he should stay on, when in fact he shouldn't in this scenario. And this would be the worst outcome of them all.

If he does indeed force a hung Parliament I'd be happy with him carrying on though. 

I wonder how many Corbyn fans are talking today about how YouGov is owned by the Tories though? 

Edited May 31, 2017 by arcade fireman

[Mr.Tease]

12 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

whether he is or isn't isn't proven by winning an election.

It's proven by leading well, and successfully - which includes delivering on promises.

Let us all at least be thankful that Owen Smith isn't leading this campaign

[eFestivals]

7 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

I wonder how many Corbyn fans are talking today about how YouGov is owned by the Tories though? 

or how you can't believe the polls.

 

[Mr.Tease]

22 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

Yeah I'm more inclined to believe the ICM polls still showing a double digit Tory lead. But I think it will hinge on whether this is finally the election we get a huge sea change in voting habits of younger people. We may even get slightly depressed turn out from the elderly thanks to them not having a good option.

But I think the most likely option looking at all the polls is a significantly larger Tory majority, but Labour getting enough seats/vote % to convince Corbyn and his supporters he should stay on, when in fact he shouldn't in this scenario. And this would be the worst outcome of them all.

If he does indeed force a hung Parliament I'd be happy with him carrying on though. 

I wonder how many Corbyn fans are talking today about how YouGov is owned by the Tories though? 

This poll helps the tories (they will be very happy to have it do the rounds, and I wouldn't be surprised if they asked for it) - their strategy is to push brexit and they will use this poll to say how dangerous it would be to vote Labour, how it will undermine the brexit negotiations etc- this poll doesn't do us any favours. 

[arcade fireman]

11 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

This poll helps the tories (they will be very happy to have it do the rounds, and I wouldn't be surprised if they asked for it) - their strategy is to push brexit and they will use this poll to say how dangerous it would be to vote Labour, how it will undermine the brexit negotiations etc- this poll doesn't do us any favours. 

Ah come on though, a lot of Corbyn supporters were saying when the polls were bad for Labour that they were due to Tory bias, and now it's being claimed these good polls are as a result of Tory interference? 

Neither are credible. YouGov is first and foremost a business which has staked a lot on getting its numbers right. One or more of these polling companies is going to get their fingers burnt in this election and it may well be YouGov, but it won't be because of Tory interference. 

If enough of the public genuinely want to elect a Labour government next week then a narrowing of the polls won't do any harm at all. 

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, arcade fireman said:

Ah come on though, a lot of Corbyn supporters were saying when the polls were bad for Labour that they were due to Tory bias, and now it's being claimed these good polls are as a result of Tory interference? 

Neither are credible. YouGov is first and foremost a business which has staked a lot on getting its numbers right. One or more of these polling companies is going to get their fingers burnt in this election and it may well be YouGov, but it won't be because of Tory interference. 

If enough of the public genuinely want to elect a Labour government next week then a narrowing of the polls won't do any harm at all. 

Firstly, the poll is bollocks! It will never happen! And secondly May warned a week ago that if she lost just 6 seats it would lead to a  'coalition of chaos', then suddenly this poll appears in a Murdock newspaper. I'm not saying Yougov are corrupt but what they choose to research can be ideologically driven (or even commissioned by a vested interest) 

It would be great if it were true though, because the tories would be unable to make a workable coalition (smaller parties are all pro Europe so she would either have to completely alter her brexit strategy), which would mean a Labour, SNP and libdem coalition, which I'd be quite pleased with. Might even result in Proportional representation. 

[eFestivals]

14 minutes ago, arcade fireman said:

One or more of these polling companies is going to get their fingers burnt in this election and it may well be YouGov,

I can see YouGov getting slated for the "results" of this latest poll, tho that'll be much-more due to the many false narratives being used around data that Yougov itself is happily saying is as uncertain as it's possible to be.

It's essentially an experiment, and YouGov is making that clear with the huge range its saying the outcome might fall between.

Edited May 31, 2017 by eFestivals