Weather 2017

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, Aragorn said:

Just checked the latest run and ensembles. 

Looks dry and warm with potential for abit of rain on Saturday

Had rain Wednesday but the operational run was abit of an outlier

Jacks latest update should be quite positive if today's runs are similar

Shit's getting real when Strider is on the weather thread!

[Skier68]

4 minutes ago, Untz said:

Change the model to GEM and that horribleness disappears.

The GEM model has always given me the better forecast whenever I've looked for various dates and it is therefore my favourite. For now.

No idea what GEM means but I will take that! Basically looks like the site is saying weather could be this, if you don't like that try this, and if neither of these suit you then have this positive picture. If only it worked like that in reality. Why do I waste my time looking? - I should just wait for Countryfile.

[frostypaw]

5 minutes ago, Sack truck said:

Ha, those videos were disturbing, like geysers about to explode all over the shop. We still thought it would all be ok at that point with a few days sun 

Looks much better this year already

You gotta be optimistic even in the face of that!

Still giggle remembering wandering around on wednesday and seeing the huge gouges tractors had made into the ground at various spots like next to the disabled platform in the Pyramid field, already full of water soaking in ready to trap innocent punters and saying to each other "That - that right there is going to be messy"

And oh god it was messy. But funny....

[Untz]

2 minutes ago, Skier68 said:

No idea what GEM means but I will take that! Basically looks like the site is saying weather could be this, if you don't like that try this, and if neither of these suit you then have this positive picture. If only it worked like that in reality. Why do I waste my time looking? - I should just wait for Countryfile.

GEM is the name of another model (Global Environmental Multiscale Model, apparently). It's just another way of calculating what the weather will be like. Obviously weather systems are very complicated things and all we have is approximations (models) of these. Different weather centres will have slightly different models and this is also why different websites will have different forecasts.

But yes, if you don't like the of one result you can always go hunting for another!

[Mr.Tease]

13 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Shit's getting real when Strider is on the weather thread!

[tumbles]

13 hours ago, tigertoo said:

I haven't read the previous 58 pages so apologies if this has been covered .... but what is the state of the ground right now ? is it baked, slightly dry or moist ? Info from those on site now would be realy welcome.

 

I have been in pretty much all possible conditions at the festival, the deep mud is the only really bad one. all temperatures are OK though I prefer it not to be super hot as I burn easily.

getting excited now, in a week's time I will start packing the van

Not bad, we have had various bits of rain last 10-14 days. Certainly not rock hard but no means a soft mess that would cut up.  Very windy over weekend which will have helped too.

[Arcticz Liam]

BBC have updated their monthly outlook -

Quote

Monday 19 June—Sunday 25 June

Warm and dry for most at first, but for how long?

This period will most likely start on an anticyclonic note, with the majority of the UK enjoying fine an dry conditions. The feel of the weather will however be greatly influence by the exact position of the anticyclone. Should the system be centred slightly to the west, a broadly north to northwesterly flow will maintain average temperatures, which will still feel quite pleasant. However, should the anticyclone be centred over or just to the east of the UK, some very warm air could be drawn up from the near continent. At the time of issue, there is very little computer model consensus on the exact positioning of the anticyclone. So although we are fairly confident in dry conditions for most, just how warm conditions get is still open to some doubt.

As the week progresses, there are increasing signs in the forecast models that the high will tend to break down, and further Atlantic weather systems will begin to impinge on the UK, bringing spells of wet and windy weather again. These unsettled spells will once again most likely be chiefly steered across north western regions of the UK, and it's also probable that temperatures will return to values nearer the average for the time of year.

 

[JoeyT]

To put the above post in perspective...

 

[Doug85]

It's still too soon to laugh about last year. The horror......the horror

[cazzatron]

Just now, Doug85 said:

It's still too soon to laugh about last year. The horror......the horror

It was fairly horrific. I just got my wellies out to put in my packing pile - I'm really hoping they won't be needed.

[squirrelarmy]

I'm going to be be proudly wearing my wellies even if it's bone dry

[JoeyT]

30 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

I'm going to be be proudly wearing my wellies even if it's bone dry

Why on earth?

It's always puzzled me why I see people walking round in wellies when the ground is dry!

Do you monsters wear your waterproofs indoors too?

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

Why on earth?

It's always puzzled me why I see people walking round in wellies when the ground is dry!

Do you monsters wear your waterproofs indoors too?

When you see them you will understand why

[Doug85]

32 minutes ago, cazzatron said:

It was fairly horrific. I just got my wellies out to put in my packing pile - I'm really hoping they won't be needed.

I only wore wellies Saturday morning last year after the heavy rain during the night had turned it all into sludge for part of the day rather than the clay. Went back to my walking boots after that though. They were much more comfortable and manageable and weren't nearly getting taken off my feet every step by the clay mud. 

I'm hoping to be in trainers this year but as long as it's nowhere near as bad as last year ground wise so I can sit down I'll be happy 

[ThomThomDrum]

At what point last year in the run up to the fest did the weather forecasts start to get it right that it was going to be shite?

Also has anyone ever done an analysis on what medium/long term forecasts are the most accurate? Or is it actually random more than 7 days out as most suspect?

Edited June 12, 2017 by ThomThomDrum

[scaryclaireyfairy]

I can't remember when we realised things weren't going to be great last year.

I can't find the 2010 weather thread.  I'd like to see what we were saying a week before.

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

3 minutes ago, scaryclaireyfairy said:

I can't remember when we realised things weren't going to be great last year.

I can't find the 2010 weather thread.  I'd like to see what we were saying a week before.

It was pretty positive but far from certain. I remember arriving on site late that year and some runs had rain forecast late Sat / early Sun even on the Thursday.

[lebenski]

Last year was a completely different ballgame.  We knew by this point that the run up to the festival was going to be very wet and it was just a case of trying to be optimistic for the days of the festival despite the mounting evidence to the contrary!

[brain yolk!]

1 minute ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

It was pretty positive but far from certain. I remember arriving on site late that year and some runs had rain forecast late Sat / early Sun even on the Thursday.

Can you remember what the build up to the festival was like weather-wise in 2010? I seem to remember a solid chunk of one or two weeks of sunshine and dry weather.

[SwedgeAntilles]

Yeah, let's not forgot that last year the focus was still on the festival itself, which wasnt actually too bad. What few of us realised/were prepared to accept was that the damage was already being done. 

[StePotts]

1 minute ago, lebenski said:

Last year was a completely different ballgame.  We knew by this point that the run up to the festival was going to be very wet and it was just a case of trying to be optimistic for the days of the festival despite the mounting evidence to the contrary!

at least this year we're pretty sure the build up is going to be a lot brighter, so whatever happens over the weekend won't make it as mush as last year. it was the getting in that killed me

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

1 minute ago, brain yolk! said:

Can you remember what the build up to the festival was like weather-wise in 2010? I seem to remember a solid chunk of one or two weeks of sunshine and dry weather.

Yeah - can't remember specifics but it was pretty decent 

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

1 minute ago, Scruffylovemonster said:

Your avatar is a bit pessimistic, old bean!

Twenty years of hard experience ;-)

[Mezhyp1]

2 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Yeah, let's not forgot that last year the focus was still on the festival itself, which wasnt actually too bad. What few of us realised/were prepared to accept was that the damage was already being done. 

Whilst it wasn't horrendous at the festival. I did surf home from the SE Corner on the early hours of Saturday morning in a complete monsoon 

[Doug85]

Yeah we had a fair idea by this point that the run up was going to be wet it was just after that was uncertain. I think it was the Sunday/Monday heavy rain/monsoon that mainly caused the chaos on the Tuesday/Wednesday. I still vividly remember seeing videos of crew on site looking at streams of water coming up from the ground at the park and the roads being under water. *Shudder