Weather 2017

[Aragorn]

The good news is the GFS Operation run is a massive outlier for rain saturday with hardly any agreement from the other 20 odd runs

The ensembles show a pretty much dry festival with maybe a bit if rain here and there

[Room to sway]

It's always like Schrodinger's weather at this point.

I don't know why I read these threads.

I'm never coming back. Not ever.

Till a bit later.

[jfaragher]

13 hours ago, Mojo69 said:

 As time goes on even the Met Office seem to be falling into the ECM camp too and GFS is buckling and improving as the hours go on.  Someone up above is linking info on less favourable GFS models done several days ago...

I think, if you are looking at the Met Office website (i.e. not the UKMO model output specifically) that the single site forecasts do a bit of blending with the ECMWF-15 for the longer validity times.

Also, given the extent of model swing at the moment, I'm going to call it - if we were going to have persistent frontal rain with lots of cloud cover etc, the model wouldn't be so unstable.  I reckon the issue is that we are going to be looking at high pressure and convective rain (sunny with showers), much more difficult to forecast timings and locations, which is what is causing all the fuckaboutery.

Edited June 14, 2017 by jfaragher

[FuzzyDunlop]

For the first time Im starting to worry about the weather.... Ouch.

 

[stuartbert two hats]

59 minutes ago, theDandy said:

BBC Weather saying it'll be dry up until the Friday then no information after that 

The festival isn't actually in Glastonbury.  I use the postcode, BA4

[jfaragher]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The festival isn't actually in Glastonbury.  I use the postcode, BA4

To be fair, that far out, your certainty on the location of the weather is greater that the distance between the festival and Glastonbury town.

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, jfaragher said:

To be fair, that far out, your certainty on the location of the weather is greater that the distance between the festival and Glastonbury town.

Fair point, except that screenshot was for the next hour, not next week.

[jfaragher]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Fair point, except that screenshot was for the next hour, not next week.

Good point well made!

[stopwn1981]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The festival isn't actually in Glastonbury.  I use the postcode, BA4

True, but if we imagine that forecasts 10 days in the future are accurate to a distance of 5 miles then we've probably delved into our Glasto stash a bit too early  

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, jfaragher said:

Good point well made!

I hadn't noticed when I first posted though!

 

1 minute ago, stopwn1981 said:

True, but if we imagine that forecasts 10 days in the future are accurate to a distance of 5 miles then we've probably delved into our Glasto stash a bit too early  

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

Of greater concern is we’re now into the final week, which means we need to prepare for an influx of these type of posts:

• Guys, fantastic news, look at this! (link to four day old article in Daily Star predicting a heatwave, while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• Why are we worrying about the weather, it’s Glastonbury! (while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• My friend is a farmer in Somerset and he says they’re preparing for a heatwave (while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• My iPhone says it’s going to be fine, just a bit of rain on the Saturday (posting screengrab of iPhone weather app, while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Of greater concern is we’re now into the final week, which means we need to prepare for an influx of these type of posts:

• Guys, fantastic news, look at this! (link to four day old article in Daily Star predicting a heatwave, while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• Why are we worrying about the weather, it’s Glastonbury! (while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• My friend is a farmer in Somerset and he says they’re preparing for a heatwave (while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• My iPhone says it’s going to be fine, just a bit of rain on the Saturday (posting screengrab of iPhone weather app, while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)

 

Except it's not going to point to a shitshow.  It's going to be glorious - see!

[Notamurderer]

But my iPhone says it's going to be fine. 

[JoBalls]

8 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Of greater concern is we’re now into the final week, which means we need to prepare for an influx of these type of posts:

• Guys, fantastic news, look at this! (link to four day old article in Daily Star predicting a heatwave, while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• Why are we worrying about the weather, it’s Glastonbury! (while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• My friend is a farmer in Somerset and he says they’re preparing for a heatwave (while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• My iPhone says it’s going to be fine, just a bit of rain on the Saturday (posting screengrab of iPhone weather app, while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)

 

But the weather doesn't matter... this time next week we'll be at Glastonbury!

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

You bastards

[Notamurderer]

Just now, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

You bastards

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

10 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Of greater concern is we’re now into the final week, which means we need to prepare for an influx of these type of posts:

• Guys, fantastic news, look at this! (link to four day old article in Daily Star predicting a heatwave, while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• Why are we worrying about the weather, it’s Glastonbury! (while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• My friend is a farmer in Somerset and he says they’re preparing for a heatwave (while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• My iPhone says it’s going to be fine, just a bit of rain on the Saturday (posting screengrab of iPhone weather app, while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/music/2010/jun/27/perfect-heatwave-glastonbury-world-cup

[The Nal]

YR showing rain now from Wednesday and temps dropping dramatically. Low pressure rolling in. We missed the good weather by a week. 

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

Its going to rain, its just a matter of how much now. 

[Thunderstruck]

I have a question for more frequent glastonbury goers. 

We know that the run up to the festival is going to be dry, so by the Wednesday we should have a good starting point. What kind of conditions will make mud a concern. I remember 2014 with the heavy downpours on the friday(?) - and I thought the mud was manageable and didn't affect the enjoyment of the festival.

Last year was a different story, a real slog from start to finish!

[Mr.Tease]

15 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Of greater concern is we’re now into the final week, which means we need to prepare for an influx of these type of posts:

• Guys, fantastic news, look at this! (link to four day old article in Daily Star predicting a heatwave, while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• Why are we worrying about the weather, it’s Glastonbury! (while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• My friend is a farmer in Somerset and he says they’re preparing for a heatwave (while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)
• My iPhone says it’s going to be fine, just a bit of rain on the Saturday (posting screengrab of iPhone weather app, while all current forecasts point to a shitshow)

 

The  "all is not lost" posts when the forecasts clearly indicate all is lost

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

3 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

I have a question for more frequent glastonbury goers. 

We know that the run up to the festival is going to be dry, so by the Wednesday we should have a good starting point. What kind of conditions will make mud a concern. I remember 2014 with the heavy downpours on the friday(?) - and I thought the mud was manageable and didn't affect the enjoyment of the festival.

Last year was a different story, a real slog from start to finish!

As a general rule, the ground churns quickly and recovers quickly. How waterlogged it is makes a difference.

So in 2014 for instance, it was muddy to start with, had almost dried out mid-Friday afternoon, then the 30 min storm ruined the site because it was already in a fragile state.

By contrast, 2008 had rain Thursday night and drizzle through Friday am and was pretty muddy. But after that it was dry and the ground was compacted flat by late Saturday.

So we have a big advantage having dry ground. Any sustained rain while the festival is on will churn it up, but if totals are low then you've got a good chance of recovery.

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

The  "all is not lost" posts when the forecasts clearly indicate all is lost

I'll admit I made a few of them last year while crying

[robu]

4 minutes ago, The Nal said:

YR showing rain now from Wednesday and temps dropping dramatically. Low pressure rolling in. We missed the good weather by a week. 

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~7292387/long.html

Its going to rain, its just a matter of how much now. 

If you look closely at that forecast, it predicts the following: Wednesday cloudy with 1.4mm rain; Thursday cloudy and 0.9mm rain;  Friday cloudy and 0.6mm rain.

I'll summarise for you: it'll be a bit cloudy and you might feel a raindrop once or twice over the three days. That's not rain, so why the scaremongering?

[McCor]

[Jugtanion]

6 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

I have a question for more frequent glastonbury goers. 

We know that the run up to the festival is going to be dry, so by the Wednesday we should have a good starting point. What kind of conditions will make mud a concern. I remember 2014 with the heavy downpours on the friday(?) - and I thought the mud was manageable and didn't affect the enjoyment of the festival.

Last year was a different story, a real slog from start to finish!

Last year = prolonged heavy rainfall in the run up to the festival (11 of preceding 14 days I think)

2014 = not a bad run up but with a couple of real belting showers while we were there, Friday afternoon for instance when the stages were shut down. Falling on dry ground, that caused the sort of mud you could skate on.

if it does rain this year, it looks as though it'll be a 2014 worst case with the mud, not that horrible stuff we saw last year.