Weather 2016

[Chimps in Balaclavas]

5 minutes ago, JanieM28 said:

I've been waiting for someone to bring up poor old Michael Fish. I reckon that was when we all stopped believing the weather forecasters.

Yeah, a few days before and I'll believe it (to a point). Even then there's a chance that they won't get it 100% right.

[Wooderson]

3 minutes ago, eastynh said:

 

Showers, good.

[alibear]

6 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

The rainbow in 2014 was brilliant. 

 

Best thing about the rain in 2014.

[Tranquility of Solitude]

25 minutes ago, The Nal said:

We should know what the weather is like on site when we're all there next week.

This is far from certain.

[stuartbert two hats]

8 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

I think at the moment there's enough variation in the model runs that we don't know what the weather will be like during Glastonbury, I think we are getting close enough though that there could start to be some agreement for Tuesday/Wednesday next week in the models...this could start as early as the 12z runs today - but we'll see! 

The first question at the moment is - does the high pressure maintain it's grip further south during Tuesday and wednesday while the low pressure system is shunted further north? Until this is resolved trying to guess what happens on the weekend is impossible.

I meant in general terms - that there is wide variability in confidence of forecasts, but it's normally very hard for the layman to tell the confidence.

[JanieM28]

11 minutes ago, DAVA said:

Yeah, a few days before and I'll believe it (to a point). Even then there's a chance that they won't get it 100% right.

Well, if I remember correctly, his forecast was for that very night! 

I remember it quite clearly because the neighbour's giant tree, which blocked our afternoon sun, fell over. This was excellent. Unfortunately it wasn't giant enough to hit our elderly shed which meant we were unable to claim for a new one on the insurance.

 

[Twisted Melon]

20 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

The rainbow in 2014 was brilliant. 

 

Getting pisswet through before it wasn't much fun though.

[FuzzyDunlop]

4 minutes ago, Twisted Melon said:

Getting pisswet through before it wasn't much fun though.

I can honestly say - finding the only place with music on, standing outside and siging "Can't fight the moonlight" by Leanne Rhimes off my head whist it was pissing down was one of the best laughs I had in ages.

Edited June 14, 2016 by FuzzyDunlop

[big__phil]

4 minutes ago, Twisted Melon said:

Getting pisswet through before it wasn't much fun though.

Parquet Courts after were though.

[Thunderstruck]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I meant in general terms - that there is wide variability in confidence of forecasts, but it's normally very hard for the layman to tell the confidence.

Yeh, I think it's difficult to really quantify what the confidence in a particular forecast is. I'm not sure it's really even possible...I think they have got better in recent years at stating when they are uncertain, they used to just deliver the forecast as if it was fact.

[Chimps in Balaclavas]

Awww, unlucky on the shed but fantastic for now being able to catch some rays.

Yeah, Fish was a laughing stock for months/years afterwards, I don't think he will ever live it down. The forecast followed by the aftermath will always pop up on those programmes of hilarious things that people got wrong.

I'd like to think that the tech at the met office has improved a lot since then. ( I still don't fully trust it though )

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

The weather thread, every year I get sucked in.

We've had heatwaves and now rain again, we may as well have a thread with a virtual roulette wheel which gets spun every day, and then on Tuesday it gets one almighty spin ultimately landing on a completely random weather sequence for the festival.

[devonhammer]

I haven't really had a look around TheWeatherOutlook.com before, but this is a great site for accessing lots of different forecast charts:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

[mrfunk]

Yr.no, has been very accurate for me  http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Castle_Cary/long.html

 

[devonhammer]

I'm starting to think that it'll be rainy. I'm not thinking 97/98/07 levels, but more than last year. Having said that, we've still got 8 days for it to turn around and we just need the Azores High to push further North.

[The60ftOctopus]

8 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

I haven't really had a look around TheWeatherOutlook.com before, but this is a great site for accessing lots of different forecast charts:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Doesn't fill me with confidence: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3275&title=Glastonbury+forecast+update
 

Quote

The latest medium range forecast data is pointing towards an above average risk of rain for Glasto 2016. It's too early to be confident about the details and the chance of high pressure building more strongly towards the UK isn't discounted. If this happens a drier and warmer outcome is possible but the odds don't favour it. 

 

[Tanzwut]

5 minutes ago, The60ftOctopus said:

Doesn't fill me with confidence: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3275&title=Glastonbury+forecast+update
 

 

 

[Tomothy123]

Wettest June on record??!!  

The daily mail can just jolly well p*ss off! 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3640699/Grab-brolly-s-set-wettest-June-record-Blow-Wimbledon-Glastonbury-forecasters-warn-month-washout.html

[budvar]

56 minutes ago, Junglist1981 said:

Lets face it, it always rains at least a little bit.

Years like 2010 are freakish exceptions. 

Yep - I've been to the last 10 festivals and there's been at least some rain at 9 of them.

[The Nal]

15 minutes ago, mrfunk said:

Yr.no, has been very accurate for me  http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Castle_Cary/long.html

 

Absolute fucking washout. Worst forecast at this stage in the recent history of the festival.

Edited June 14, 2016 by The Nal

[jezzer]

It's looking positive from the look of this thread on Netweather, always an esssential read and they know their stuff. High pressure potentially dominating southern UK next week

 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/85513-model-output-discussions-12z-03052016/?page=41

[mr flow]

27 minutes ago, mrfunk said:

Yr.no, has been very accurate for me  http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Castle_Cary/long.html

 

That's not a great deal of rain though for the Wednesday and Thursday. With the doom and gloom going around, i'd take that at the moment.

[Junglist1981]

24 minutes ago, jezzer said:

It's looking positive from the look of this thread on Netweather, always an esssential read and they know their stuff. High pressure potentially dominating southern UK next week

 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/85513-model-output-discussions-12z-03052016/?page=41

Litterally the first post in that link:

Someone is going to be very wrong, the meto are categorically saying tonight that low pressure is going to move back in after the brief ridge this weekend! The gfs is a huge hot outlier, and possibly the ECMtoo, so maybe we've just been spoilt again with the 12z output we can see not being true of the overall outcome. Prepare for potential disappointment....it's very much on the cards.

Er...

[The Nal]

13 minutes ago, mr flow said:

That's not a great deal of rain though for the Wednesday and Thursday. With the doom and gloom going around, i'd take that at the moment.

11mm of rain in one day?! We have 4mm in all of 2015. 

[dannygrif]

9 minutes ago, Junglist1981 said:

Litterally the first post in that link:

Someone is going to be very wrong, the meto are categorically saying tonight that low pressure is going to move back in after the brief ridge this weekend! The gfs is a huge hot outlier, and possibly the ECMtoo, so maybe we've just been spoilt again with the 12z output we can see not being true of the overall outcome. Prepare for potential disappointment....it's very much on the cards.

Er...

The more recent posts are way more promising