Weather 2016

[JoeyT]

Just now, mr flow said:

It's not looking great, but there does appear to be a few dry days coming up that are going to be quite warm and windy, so hopefully that'll dry things up on site.

I don't think it's going to be 2007 wet, but It could turn out to be a 2008/2011 kind of affair.

I agree. With traders coming on site to set up on Sunday onwards if sat / sun can be dry it'll help.

All the extra vehicles on site from Sunday means dry weather at the weekend is needed!

[Gnomicide]

 

 

[p.pete]

14 minutes ago, Junglist1981 said:

Damn. Which field is that?

Bound to by Pennards or Park Home...

[The Clearest Blue]

As a Bristol resident, I can confirm the weather in the South West this morning has been grime, but over the last hour the clouds have started to break up and the Sun seems like he will be making an appearance, you can tell from the site webcam that the skies to the west are looking brighter and clearer as well. None of this makes a difference to next weeks weather, but 'a day of forecasted rain' doesn't necessarily mean that the ground will be left as mush. We all know its too early to tell anyway!

[Thunderstruck]

PHEW! sigh of relief as the GFS run was an outlier for the weekend. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850plymouth0.png?cb=366

One of the good things about the 06z ENS is the large reduction in the chance of rain on the Wednesday...still all to play for!

 

[The Nal]

Just now, Thunderstruck said:

PHEW! sigh of relief as the GFS run was an outlier for the weekend. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850plymouth0.png?cb=366

One of the good things about the 06z ENS is the large reduction in the chance of rain on the Wednesday...still all to play for!

What does that mean in English? Dont understand any of that apart from the last half of the last sentence. 

[CaledonianGonzo]

2 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

PHEW! sigh of relief as the GFS run was an outlier for the weekend. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850plymouth0.png?cb=366

One of the good things about the 06z ENS is the large reduction in the chance of rain on the Wednesday...still all to play for!

 

Sweet!

[DeanoL]

It's possible that right now, a week out, the systems would be fairly stable and we'd be able to accurately predict what the weather would be with 80% confidence or so.

They're not.

We've not no bloody clue. Multiple fronts, either could become dominant or we could get stuck in the middle.

I always find it weird that weather forecasts never contain a confidence interval. Essentially forecasts with 30% confidence are presented with the same authority as those with 90% confidence. Which really confuses conversations like this.

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, The Nal said:

What does that mean in English? Dont understand any of that apart from the last half of the last sentence. 

The forecast was shit compared to the rest of the runs, which were generally better.

[The Nal]

We should know what the weather is like on site when we're all there next week.

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, The Nal said:

We should know what the weather is like on site when we're all there next week.

Honestly this is the best approach.

[stuartbert two hats]

6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

It's possible that right now, a week out, the systems would be fairly stable and we'd be able to accurately predict what the weather would be with 80% confidence or so.

They're not.

We've not no bloody clue. Multiple fronts, either could become dominant or we could get stuck in the middle.

I always find it weird that weather forecasts never contain a confidence interval. Essentially forecasts with 30% confidence are presented with the same authority as those with 90% confidence. Which really confuses conversations like this.

That's how I see it too.  @Thunderstruck would you agree?

[big__phil]

12 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

PHEW! sigh of relief as the GFS run was an outlier for the weekend. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850plymouth0.png?cb=366

One of the good things about the 06z ENS is the large reduction in the chance of rain on the Wednesday...still all to play for!

 

*clicks on link, gets confused, closes page, goes back to weather page for explanation*

 

So.....better?

[Junglist1981]

Lets face it, it always rains at least a little bit.

Years like 2010 are freakish exceptions. 

[devonhammer]

5 minutes ago, The Nal said:

We should know what the weather is like on site when we're all there next week.

or when we're back home in two weeks time. Although not everyone agrees even then

[Chimps in Balaclavas]

It's going to be blazing hot all weekend with no chance of rain, this guy has got it covered.

 

[big__phil]

Just now, DAVA said:

It's going to be blazing hot all weekend with no chance of rain, this guy has got it covered.

 

Look at the size of that rainbow!!

[Chimps in Balaclavas]

Just now, big__phil said:

Look at the size of that rainbow!!

Lots of sun, no rain and a massive rainbow, we're gonna be spoilt

[JanieM28]

2 minutes ago, DAVA said:

It's going to be blazing hot all weekend with no chance of rain, this guy has got it covered.

 

I've been waiting for someone to bring up poor old Michael Fish. I reckon that was when we all stopped believing the weather forecasters.

[Sack truck]

As a Scotsman I always suspected. "Yer talkin a load of Michael Fish"

[FuzzyDunlop]

The rainbow in 2014 was brilliant. 

 

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

That's how I see it too.  @Thunderstruck would you agree?

I think at the moment there's enough variation in the model runs that we don't know what the weather will be like during Glastonbury, I think we are getting close enough though that there could start to be some agreement for Tuesday/Wednesday next week in the models...this could start as early as the 12z runs today - but we'll see! 

The first question at the moment is - does the high pressure maintain it's grip further south during Tuesday and wednesday while the low pressure system is shunted further north? Until this is resolved trying to guess what happens on the weekend is impossible.

[Mardy]

This thread is rivalling the Radiohead one in terms of delusion. Fucking madness

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, JanieM28 said:

I've been waiting for someone to bring up poor old Michael Fish. I reckon that was when we all stopped believing the weather forecasters.

 

[JanieM28]

1 minute ago, Mardy said:

This thread is rivalling the Radiohead one in terms of delusion. Fucking madness

Spot on! Amusing thread though.