Weather 2016

[The Nal]

44 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Everyone calm down haha! Is rain looking likely? - Yes! But it's not exactly looking like a monsoon is it?!

Either was 2007. Just frequent periods of rain, like whats being forecast now. 

[devonhammer]

6 minutes ago, Drinky said:

That looks... grim

That's not the latest GFS run

[Skoo]

6 minutes ago, giantkatestacks said:

Nope, it rained hard all Saturday night/morning, and it was freezing and it was windy, I know as I was out in it all night on a Ped gate. <mutters bitterly>

Bloody hell my memory of that festival is gone. Got back from it though and cried nonetheless.

[devonhammer]

7 minutes ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

I may be reading this wrong but it looks like the UK is right under a clash between 2 weather systems at the moment which is causing the unsettled and at times stormy weather.  Looks to me like there is a possibility the Azores high could strengthen, meaning it should be dry/warm next week or it could weaken, meaning cooler/wetter.  In any event I don't see it being biblical.

But then I don't really know what I'm on about and am guessing from what I am trying to understand from the models and data.  So don't shout at me if I'm wrong.

Exactly this

[4AssedMonkey]

2 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

Exactly this

 Cheers DH.

Here's praying for a decent Azores fingering then....

[bennyhana22]

5 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

That's not the latest GFS run

I love you devonhammer. No, really, I do.

Ben

[scaryclaireyfairy]

I'm a glass half empty type and somehow I'm not seeing gloom in the latest runs/forecasts.  Just looks kinda normal. *shrug*

Wherefore art thou, Big Dog?

[beatboy1]

I'm so angry with myself - I was the first to tell my fellow Glasto group not to trust weather forecasts until a few days before the festival but I'm still checking this thread every 10 minutes or so.  *Hangs head in shame*

[SteveTLizard]

[big__phil]

So do I remember right from last year that there are two runs per day? Any stats people this year?

[bennyhana22]

2 minutes ago, beatboy1 said:

I'm so angry with myself - I was the first to tell my fellow Glasto group not to trust weather forecasts until a few days before the festival but I'm still checking this thread every 10 minutes or so.  *Hangs head in shame*

There's no shame, bb1.

I mean, we're all here, aren't we?

There is power in a union.

Ben

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, big__phil said:

So do I remember right from last year that there are two runs per day? Any stats people this year?

For the UK there are 3 main models that are worth using.

The UKMO (met office model) runs at 00z and 12z and we get to see the operational run, while the ensembles are hidden. The ensembles are essentially multiple runs with slightly different input conditions and give a better idea of the trend than just one run. For example the UKMO 12z today could be incredible with a heatwave but it might be a massive outlier and the other members are cool and showery.

The ECMWF runs at the same times as the UKMO, again we get to see the operational and some information about the ensembles

The GFS is very popular because it runs at 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z - we not only get to see the operational run but we see all of it's ensemble members.

[The Nal]

Just now, Thunderstruck said:

For the UK there are 3 main models that are worth using.

The UKMO (met office model) runs at 00z and 12z and we get to see the operational run, while the ensembles are hidden. The ensembles are essentially multiple runs with slightly different input conditions and give a better idea of the trend than just one run. For example the UKMO 12z today could be incredible with a heatwave but it might be a massive outlier and the other members are cool and showery.

The ECMWF runs at the same times as the UKMO, again we get to see the operational and some information about the ensembles

The GFS is very popular because it runs at 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z - we not only get to see the operational run but we see all of it's ensemble members.

This reads to me like this: 

在英國有一些值得用3主力機型。

在英國氣象局（滿足辦公模式）運行在00Z和12Z ，我們能看到的業務運行，而歌舞團是隱藏的。該樂團基本上是略有不同的輸入條件多次運行，並給予不僅僅是一個運行趨勢的一個更好的主意。比如今天的英國氣象局12Z可能是不可信的熱浪，但它可能是一個巨大的異常和其他成員涼爽陣雨。

該ECMWF運行在同一時間為英國氣象局，我們再次能看到業務和有關歌舞團的一些信息

政府飛行服務隊是非常受歡迎的，因為它運行在00Z ， 06Z ， 12Z和18Z - 我們不僅能看到操作運行，但我們可以看到它的所有集合成員。

[djcolsen]

I've found if you search for the weather in Malaga you get a lot more positive outlook... Although may turn up to Pilton grossly under prepared

[StLewi]

https://youtu.be/AOlEZARsm8g

Edited June 14, 2016 by StLewi

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, StLewi said:

<iframe width="750" height="422" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AOlEZARsm8g" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

Two days old.

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, The Nal said:

This reads to me like this: 

在英國有一些值得用3主力機型。

在英國氣象局（滿足辦公模式）運行在00Z和12Z ，我們能看到的業務運行，而歌舞團是隱藏的。該樂團基本上是略有不同的輸入條件多次運行，並給予不僅僅是一個運行趨勢的一個更好的主意。比如今天的英國氣象局12Z可能是不可信的熱浪，但它可能是一個巨大的異常和其他成員涼爽陣雨。

該ECMWF運行在同一時間為英國氣象局，我們再次能看到業務和有關歌舞團的一些信息

政府飛行服務隊是非常受歡迎的，因為它運行在00Z ， 06Z ， 12Z和18Z - 我們不僅能看到操作運行，但我們可以看到它的所有集合成員。

haha! yeh, not surprised to be honest.

It's best to just think of it as 3 predictions of the weather from 3 different companies...Maybe that makes it easier  

[evilduck]

I can't help but check this thread every 5 mins, even though I know it's mostly useless.

[**claire**]

1 hour ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

@pedmills said a while back he would be returning... please??

At least we now have @devonhammer's summary, which I hope becomes a daily occurrence.

This is very true - apologies for overlooking your sterling work @devonhammer!

[big__phil]

2 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

haha! yeh, not surprised to be honest.

It's best to just think of it as 3 predictions of the weather from 3 different companies...Maybe that makes it easier  

Now that I can get head around.

[devonhammer]

7 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

For the UK there are 3 main models that are worth using.

The UKMO (met office model) runs at 00z and 12z and we get to see the operational run, while the ensembles are hidden. The ensembles are essentially multiple runs with slightly different input conditions and give a better idea of the trend than just one run. For example the UKMO 12z today could be incredible with a heatwave but it might be a massive outlier and the other members are cool and showery.

The ECMWF runs at the same times as the UKMO, again we get to see the operational and some information about the ensembles

The GFS is very popular because it runs at 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z - we not only get to see the operational run but we see all of it's ensemble members.

GFS got a big update in January as well. Traditionally I've not trusted it as much as the European models (UKMO, ECMWY, yr.no), but it will be interesting to see if it has improved.

On the ensembles, you can see where there's a certainty of rain, or where only a few runs show it (there are 20 runs in the ensemble):

[joelovesleeds!]

I hope the current hysteria in this thread goes the same way the Radiohead one did...

[The Nal]

11 minutes ago, evilduck said:

I can't help but check this thread every 5 mins, even though I know it's mostly useless.

Yeah, anything further ahead than 3 days - ie this Friday - isn't reliable at all with regard to rainfall and anything further ahead than 5 days isn't isn't reliable at all with regard to temperature. 

So we could get this

 

Or we could get this

 

Just as well I understand pictures of raindrops and sun because I've no idea what an "operational run" means, haven't a fucking clue what an "ensemble" is, wouldn't know a "GFS" if it slapped me in the face and "00zs" and "06zs" look like confusing baking measurements. 

Edited June 14, 2016 by The Nal

[big__phil]

5 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

GFS got a big update in January as well. Traditionally I've not trusted it as much as the European models (UKMO, ECMWY, yr.no), but it will be interesting to see if it has improved.

On the ensembles, you can see where there's a certainty of rain, or where only a few runs show it (there are 20 runs in the ensemble):

GRAPH!!

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, devonhammer said:

GFS got a big update in January as well. Traditionally I've not trusted it as much as the European models (UKMO, ECMWY, yr.no), but it will be interesting to see if it has improved.

On the ensembles, you can see where there's a certainty of rain, or where only a few runs show it (there are 20 runs in the ensemble):

Yeh, I didn't realise the GFS has been upgraded - like you say ECMWF has always been the best IMO, but that can always change! I know some have commented on the GFS having very good agreement after the upgrade out to about day 8. 

Based on what I've seen so far I think we may know a lot more after todays 12z runs. If I was going out on a limb I'd say rain Tuesday/Wednesday looks likely at the moment. After that I'm hoping it will become more settled but it's not clear at the moment.